A big question unasked by election strategy pundits

[Fight_n_back]

Bush lost the popular vote by 600,000. He "won" the Electoral College by the slimmest margin possible.

What has he done to make up the 600,000 vote gap?

Nothing.


He has to convince people who voted for Gore to vote for him. What is he doing to achieve that?


Its going to be a landslide for Kerry.

[BillZBubb]

1. I think that is too simplistic.

Bush* will run hundreds on millions in negative ads attacking Kerry. The corporate media will continue to sing Bush* praises and question Kerry's record.

A lot of people who voted for Gore will be effected by that and will vote for the "devil they know"--Bush*. A lot of Gore voters will believe that Bush* cut their taxes and Kerry will raise them. This is absurd, but it will happen.

Also, there are a lot of people who will vote for Bush* because he's a "war president" and 9/11. I know that is stupid and you know that is stupid, but it will happen.

It is going to be tough for Kerry to win. But he can do it.

[Fight_n_back]

4. Thats the Bush strategy

but it won't work.

Lanslides happen because one candidate's people don't come out and the other candidates people do come out. Bush is attempting to keep turnout down.

He is offering nothing for the disaffected. He has completely misunderestimated the dissaffection as has the press. Moores movie is just one example of that.

No President has won an election when their approval rating was below 50% in an election year.

Each time a President lost the popular vote and won the electoral college he lost the next election.

Each time a President has run for reelection it was a landslide one way or the other.

Can you see Bush winning in a landslide?

It is simplistic...what has he done to win over 600,000 votes while still keeping everyone who voted for him last time?

He hasn't done it, he can't do it. All he can do is dirty the waters to hold down turnout.

He doesn't have the character to pull this off. I say we kick him while he is down, ram it down his throat and attempt to set records for an incumbant defeat that will make the Reagan/Carter election look close.

[yolatengo]

2. census realignment?

I think they're counting on some 'help' from realignment
(e.g. PA, a Gore state, lost several electoral votes while GA,
a Bush state, gained).

Personally, I think the GOP is counting on 3 things:

1. as above, a slight shift in population/EV's to 'Red States' since 2000.
2. redistricting to maintain their slim lead in the house/senate.
3. another major terrorist event before the election to sow doubt and fear.

They seem to have this "45% vote for GOP, 45% vote Dem, we fight
over the remaining 10% in our 'winner takes all' system so to keep
POWER, that's really ALL we have to win' approach.

But, as in Spain, if you PISS OFF enough people with your LIES (NOT
because it's a nation of scaredy-cats who don't want al-qaeda to
hurt them), non-voters will come out in droves to nail you to the wall.
Which is why I expect 3) will happen as 'insurance'.

Bigby

[opihimoimoi]

3. The Flim Flam Man thought he was going to be a shoo in

Rigged elections, PsyOps, Rush Limpass brainwashing, Hannity and his Shit, etc, etc. Plus all the Churches of the CC, he figures its a cake walk.

Flight suit for the Hero Worshippers.

Tax Breaks for the Wealthy

Big Contracts for the Mil Ind Complx

etc etc

He thinks its gonna be over in 3 states. Only time will tell.

But now 9/11 looms as the fly in the ointment. Clarkes Book was so revealing. The Missing WMD, the Lies, the Plame case, etc etc.

Its all over, Toast is being served. The French kine.