Economic Sign to Watch for in September

[mrsteve]

Heard about this on the radio on the drive home last night. The name "Challenger, Gray & Christmas" got my attention, because they are the largest outplacement firm in the country, thus having a very good grasp of the strategies and trends on job cutbacks.

CNN Money Link

"After a slow summer for layoff announcements, the pink slips could start flying after Labor Day, according to a study released Tuesday by a layoff-tracking firm.

The weeks immediately following the Labor Day holiday are typically among the worst of the year for layoffs, said John Challenger, CEO of Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which publishes monthly reports of layoff announcements.


"You are 25 percent more likely to lose a job after Labor Day than in the preceding eight months," Challenger said. "The reasons: employers are finalizing budgets and business plans for 2004, and payroll levels are heavily impacted by both." "
</snip>

So if we see a flood of layoffs in September, I guess it means that Big Business doesn't think next year is going to go well. And that *'s economic plan is a lot of hot air.

[revcarol]

1. Then you can get hired back on as a temp in Dec.

OH, wait...no one has any money for Christmas presents, they're so stressed by utility payments,,,fergit that,,,

[brokensymmetry]

2. It seems likely.

Keep in mind that insider sales of stock has hit record (as in all-time record) levels.

I keep asking myself, what are Rove & company thinking? How do they expect to get elected if they keep putting voters in worse shape economically? :shrug:

[JHB]

3. Who needs to think...

...when you have an ideology?

[mrsteve]

But if the media keeps tellig them they are getting better...

..so how do people know otherwise? They have to search stuff out like we do around here to get the real truth.

And yeah, those insider sales numbers are scary as hell. Someone is getting ready to bail out of the US economy big time, and it isn's us working class slobs.

[chiburb]

4. Challenger, Gray were the ones who said

Unemployment was actually over 12% vs the 6.4% widely reported. This was on PBS Newshour a few weeks ago.

Snip:

JOHN CHALLENGER: 6.4 percent only tells the first part of the story. There are discouraged workers. There are people who have been marginalized, and that puts unemployment up over 12 percent.

PAUL SOLMAN: 12 percent?

JOHN CHALLENGER: They're being pushed out of the workplace. They're being deskilled. The problem is much deeper than it looks.

PAUL SOLMAN: John Challenger's extreme claim, first made to us on the phone, is what motivated this story, and what we came to Chicago to explore: That today's unofficial unemployment rate is much higher than the official 6.4 percent. And in fact, what we found suggests that for men in the workforce, today's number actually rivals the 10.8 percent record of 1982, because, it turns out, there are four factors suppressing today's official number, at least for men: Millions more discouraged workers than there were in 1982; millions more on disability; nearly 1.5 million more incarcerated men; and finally, there's a demographic factor. Today's is an older workforce. To make it comparable to 1982, the economists we spoke with would adjust today's number upward for that reason alone. And the same is true for each of these categories. Take discouraged workers, who aren't officially counted as unemployed unless they say they actively looked for work in the past four weeks.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/economy/july-dec03/unemployment_07-29.html

[mrsteve]

5. Nice article find - love this quote

"Add them all up, and today's 6.4 percent official unemployment rate approaches 1982's 10.8 percent record, at least for men."

Like I said, CGC often tell the truth.

[mrsteve]

6. Kick for Ciburb's article

:kick:

[catmandu57]

7. Christmas now there's irony for you

By December the veils will have been ripped away from peoples eyes on just how shitty this economy really is.

[chiburb]

8. Feb. 1 at the latest (when the bills come in). n/t

.