What's REALLY going on inside Iraq...

[tedzbear]

Two fascinating paragraphs from today's Informed Comment, by Juan Cole:


Allawi's cozy relations with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and his snub of Iran, suggests an emerging pattern in the caretaker government. Secular, pro-American Shiites like Allawi and Shaalan are increasingly throwing their lot in with powerful Sunni Arab neighbors of Iraq, cementing their alliance with Sunni Iraqi politicians like President Yawar in the process. In contrast, the religious Shiite parties are not being given any significant role in the new government (al-Da`wa has a vice-presidency and SCIRI has the Finance Ministry, and that is about it; the Sadrists have nothing). They are the ones who would seek close relations with Iran if they could. The religious Shiite parties also appear to be being sidelined in the national congress. Are pro-American, secular Shiite leaders a trojan horse inside Shiite Iraq for restored Sunni power and diplomacy in Iraq and the Gulf?

Allawi's government cracked down this weekend on the Sadr movement. Iraqi National Guards and Coalition forces arrested Muqtada al-Sadr's representative in the holy Shiite city of Karbala, Shaikh Mithal al-Hasnawi, early in the morning at his house, along with his brother. Muqtada's spokesman, Ra'id al-Kadhimi, threatened retaliation. Muqtada and his movement are boycotting the national congress that will elect a weak, symoblic national assembly beginning in mid-August. US arrests of Muqtada aides in early April provoked substantial violence in Iraq. Note that this arrest would have been the work of Interior Minister Falah al-Naqib and would have been authorized by Iyad Allawi.


posted by Juan @ 8/1/2004 07:02:00 AM

http://juancole.com