Screw Gallup---New CBS poll Kerry leads 49-43

[59millionmorons]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/25/politics/main631657.shtml

Kerry and Edwards now hold a six-point lead over the Republican incumbents, 49 percent to 43 percent — only slightly wider than the 49 percent to 44 percent lead the Democrats had in a poll taken July 11 to 15.

However, the poll indicates the convention's focus on Kerry's decorated service in Vietnam boosted the Democrats among veterans

[cthrumatrix]

1. gallup is a joke...it's rethug tool

[PATRICK]

12. In 2000

it seemed the fairer polls turned out to be the pro-Gore ones since they did not shy from the late movement Gore himself was claiming. This was mainly Reuters and ABC from my memory. Polls are polls and the situation might be different now anyway.

What I find interesting is the usually wrong pre-judgment threatening to enforce self-fulfilling prophecy that there will be no movement, that it will be close, that the country is set in parity division gridlock- all this in place of what they usually said about Bush I or Bush II that they were shoo-ins and winning.

They never learn or want us to learn, but we do. Ongoing daily opinion is not the vote. Last time in 2000 they tried to set the Bush "winning" margin in stone as a done deal too and contributed to the coup.

We will get steady increase, maybe by inches, but by October... hoo boy. We will have greater turnout than 2000- hoo boy- good bye likely voter polls. We will have more exposure of Bush reality and phonier promises and more acceptance of his lying and cheating for what they really are- hoo boy! GOP Convention? Debates Hoo boy! More and more disgruntled Republicans, more veterans, more Southerners attracted by Edwards, more swing voters with no place left to swing but Kerry- hoo boy!

Go ahead, Gallup all you want all the way back to Crawford.

[PATRICK]

13. In 2000

it seemed the fairer polls turned out to be the pro-Gore ones since they did not shy from the late movement Gore himself was claiming. This was mainly Reuters and ABC from my memory. Polls are polls and the situation might be different now anyway.

What I find interesting is the usually wrong pre-judgment threatening to enforce self-fulfilling prophecy that there will be no movement, that it will be close, that the country is set in parity division gridlock- all this in place of what they usually said about Bush I or Bush II that they were shoo-ins and winning.

They never learn or want us to learn, but we do. Ongoing daily opinion is not the vote. Last time in 2000 they tried to set the Bush "winning" margin in stone as a done deal too and contributed to the coup.

We will get steady increase, maybe by inches, but by October... hoo boy. We will have greater turnout than 2000- hoo boy- good bye likely voter polls. We will have more exposure of Bush reality and phonier promises and more acceptance of his lying and cheating for what they really are- hoo boy! GOP Convention? Debates Hoo boy! More and more disgruntled Republicans, more veterans, more Southerners attracted by Edwards, more swing voters with no place left to swing but Kerry- hoo boy!

Issues? We will own all of them by November and yet that is what suddenly they are probing for? Hoo boy! Negative campaigning against our fighters? Hoo boy!

Go ahead, Gallup all you want all the way back to Crawford.

[prodigal_green]

2. Zogby has the best track record.

They've got Kerry winning handily.

[DoYouEverWonder]

3. Gallop is just about the only poll

that doesn't show Kerry significantly ahead.

Funny how the media is so willing to base all their opinions on the Gallops poll, while they ignore all the other more credible polls.

[fujiyama]

4. Looks like

there may not have been much of a bounce but Kerry had the lead anyways in many if not most polls going INTO the convention. That and the fact that there were and are few undecideds indicated there would be a very small bounce.

One good thing is Kerry has cut down Bush's lead among veterans. This is great news. Even if Kerry is down points or so among vets that's fine. That's a lot higher percentage than other dems have got in the past. According to this poll, it's statistically tied, which is very encouraging.

[59millionmorons]

6. Veteran vote

If Kerry was behind 10 points on the veteran vote, that would be great.

[PATRICK]

14. The great curve

The bounce in the past was only the breathless result of waiting for the Dems to get their act together- which they did in March and in some ways much earlier. Since then it has been a slow mammoth curve assailing and bulging even against Bush strongholds. small wonder it is as imperceptive as Kerry's progress to victory in Iowa.

The incompetent media throws terms about with poor judgment, shaky pre-judgment and no wisdom. I hope it continues to sneak up on them. That alone has rendered the GOP helpless before the tide with less and less chance of a dramatic reaction. And since when in the last four years had the media got it right or made truth triumph? Or even been current with the "news"? The batting average is near .000 .

Fool me twice, shame on the media!

[Mr_Spock]

5. I commented here that I thought there weren't many undecideds

and that there would be a minimal bounce - if any. Just because the "media" in order to push their coverage said that this is where people will get to "know" Kerry, doesn't make it so. Most people know where they stand and it has nothing to do with Kerry. It all has to do with hatred of Bush and fundamental ideology. Anybody who thinks this is like elections of the past has not been paying attention or isn't mad enough. I'm pissed - Bush is turning us into a nation of idiots and we need to stop him.

[59millionmorons]

7. Remember this

Unlike any other year the challenger was leadong in 95% of the polls going into his convention. There was little room for a bounce. This is why we are getting terror alerts, the Bushies know the party is over.

[Killarney]

8. wasn't Gallup off by 13 pts in 2000?

we should shout that from the rooftops.

[59millionmorons]

9. Not exactly

Three weeks before the election they had Gore 13 points behind.

http://gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1216

[Zynx]

11. They also had Bush up by 7 or 8 just nine days before the election.

[DrWeird]

17. Didn't Gallup project Dewey the winner?

Have their methods really changed much in fifty years?

[KharmaTrain]

10. Do We Want Another Dukakis?

The bigger bounces for candidates coming out of a convention have been for those who've had troubles connecting with their own voters yet reaching out for undecideds or the other party. In '88, Dukakis was in the upper 30's going into the convention...bounced to 53 when the covention TV show was finished then bored himself into obvlivion (and Susan Ostrich onto Faux). Even Gore's "bump" was from a level below where Kerry was going into the DNC.

I heard someone discuss that the nation is so divided now that the polls are showing those who have decided and there's going to be little movement in those groups. While the convention did help Kerry...his numbers did go up...it also energized this regime's base as well, thus a bump up for Bunnypants. The same could occur after their whorefest. Bunnypants gets a three or four points and Kerry one or two. The undecideds lie now among many who haven't been registered or haven't voted in recent elections whose responses aren't counted in many of these polls as likely voters.

Lastly, I've noticed the last convention has the biggest impact. A smoothly run one will make a candidate look smooth and in control, a bad one and it's the last impression many get about the status of the party. Examples: '92, where Clinton united Democrats then came Poppy with Pitchfork Pat and the impression of a splintered party. In 2000 Gore was last and all the media could fixate on coming out of that convention was "the kiss" and Gore "reinventing himself"...while the Repugnicans put on a made-for-TV joke based around "Compassionate Conservative" that went off smoothly. The ultimate example is '68...many still site the riots at the DNC (which went last) that cost Humphrey the election. Now the Democrats have had a very smooth convention and the RNC already is in a town that doesn't want it and a bitterly divided nation that will further polarize with whatever messages or given out during their week. I'm holding my breath...

[PATRICK]

16. Yes, an unkind wish

is that the political karma that always punishes the Dems, but only occasionally the evasive GOP, will occur in NYC.

With the truncated campaign coverage it is how they push it outside in the media that will likely give them their only shine. They will have to trundle out Bush rivals like McCain to counter the vets. That has already been well prepared for despite Kerry's attempts to make him unusable. They will have to scuttle the heady excitement of replacing Uncle Dick for a safety that will likely doom them, all other things fairly considered. Their great speakers will have to watch the negativity, but they can't by their nature.

There is a no win situation with the demonstrators whom the police are going to handle with as much connection to GOP wishes as the Chicago police had with the 1968 Dems- which means not smooth.

Bush has to give the speech of his life just not to sink. He can't appear to be the underdog, attack too much or be on the defensive, therefore his speech must be a potent fantasy. All he has his record and zero credibility for change and four more years. Cheney has to stay healthy for a fixed number of days out of his control. They have no thinkers, inspirers or bright faces. They lean on people they hate and restrain like Guiliani and McCain and hope no one will notice. Their delegates will not be diverse, and more a##holes(or empathically challenged would be better?) though the media can mask that.

Whose speech will they print in full that can match Obama or any Democrat in Boston? The only thing they have left to elect is fear itself.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

15. Gallup's final 2000 poll was TEN POINTS OFF

Gallup is a Repuke tool.