Kerry 50, Bush 44, Nader 2: WashPost/ABCNews Poll

[liberalpragmatist]

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_bounce_poll_040802.html

Among registered voters, 50 percent support Kerry in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 44 percent Bush and 2 percent Ralph Nader — a gain of four points for Kerry and a loss of four for Bush from the pre-convention ABC/Post poll.

That net shift of eight points is about half the average, 15 points, for challengers running against incumbents in elections since 1968 (ranging from +30 for Bill Clinton in 1992 to -3 for George McGovern in 1972). The average bounce for all candidates is 12 points.

Among likely voters, Kerry's six-point edge slips to an insignificant two points — 49 percent support for Kerry, 47 percent for Bush and 2 percent for Nader, a net (and at best very slight) six-point shift toward Kerry from the pre-convention poll.

Last week's ABC/Post poll did not show a notable difference between registered voters and likely voters; it now appears across a range of questions (but not, however, the "commander-in-chief" question). Likely voters are defined by factors such as intention to vote and past voting behavior.

Also:

The Massachusetts senator gained five to eight points among registered voters on issues and attributes alike, while Bush lost about as many. And after a convention that focused heavily on his military experience in Vietnam, Kerry leads Bush as "better qualified to be commander-in-chief," by 52 percent to 44 percent.

Perhaps most critically, Kerry solidified more of his support. He sharply boosted the level of enthusiasm among his supporters; made some progress on being more than "not Bush" (but needs more); and produced a solid increase in his "strong" support, up 13 points to 85 percent, now on par with Bush.

[lancdem]

1. The reason Kerry's bounce

was not as big as others is because he was already in great shape and didn't need to shore up anything.

[gristy]

2. CNN's BS poll

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/01/polls.bounce/index.html

The registered voters surveyed favored Kerry over Bush 50-47, a slight change from 49-45 found in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago.

The likely voters polled favored Bush 50-47, whereas two weeks earlier they had favored Kerry 49-47.

Note they have to go to "likely" voters to find the evil one ahead.

[rumguy]

3. BUSH. IS. TOAST.

[heidiho]

4. They also fail to mention that the incumbent is usually

about 15 points ahead at this point in time. So Bush is REALLY the hell behind!

[emulatorloo]

5. Scroll down to "Trust Candidate on These Areas"- those numbers are amazing

where they break down shift away from Bush towards Kerry on issues.

Can't copy and paste because of formatting, but they look realllllllllllllly good for Kerry and reallllllllllllly baaaaaaaad for GWB. . . .