Here's my theory about the Alan Keyes run.

[LoZoccolo]

- No one's gonna beat Obama.
- The Republicans would look stupid if they didn't run anyone.
- On the other hand, anyone who does run is wasting money (see "no one's gonna beat Obama").
- A social conservative can just about always get a base of contributions, no matter if they will win or not.
- That's why they're running Alan Keyes.

[I Thaumaturgist]

1. Alan Keyes in S. Illinois

I look forward to Alan Keyes running because he will bring back all the farmers that turned republican during the Carter administration. The rural republicans down here dont like blacks at all (loads of KKK and Militia types running around). Alan Keyes will be one more reason for them to come back to the fold or stay away from the poles altogether.

[Cha]

4. They don't like Blacks? So they won't be voting for Obama,

either? Even though a Democratic Senator might be the best thing for them?

[Walt Starr]

5. Jerry Kohn stands a good chance of coming in second

He's the Libertarian.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. Dude's name is actually Jerry Kohn? Like John Kerry switched around?

[Walt Starr]

12. Ayup, official Libertarian candidate for the Senate from Illinois!

http://www.kohn2004.org/

This man will come in second place in Illinois this year.

[0rganism]

11. Wait... Isn't "Jerry Kohn" dyslexic for "John Kerry"?

Is that gonna be a problem for people?

[Walt Starr]

13. Nope. Keyes is the only way to keep the conservatives voting GOP

Check out his site:

http://www.kohn2004.org/abortion.shtml

A Barthwell candidacy guarantees he comes in second. She's pro-choice.

Keyes would make it a race with him for second place due to the racism inherent in portions of Illinois.

[janx]

2. But we don't know that he's running yet, do we?

Is it official?

[Walt Starr]

3. He's not the candidate

At least not yet.

Based upon the fact that they are still talking to Barthwell, the fact that Judy Baar Topinka is personal friends with Barthwell, and the fact that the guy pushing the Keyes angle is very disliked by the other members on the SCC, Barthwell will probably be the candidate.

[xcmt]

7. Hah.

Have you seen what Josh Marshall has to say about Barthwell?

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_08_01.php#003245

[Walt Starr]

8. That doesn't matter

This is Illinois State Level politics. Topinka is flexing her political muscles and she is the single most powerful Republican in Illinois. She is behind Barthwell all the way.

The thing the other members of the SCC have to take into account is whether they want Topinka to take a huge fall or not. That's why the Keyes card was played. This has nothing whatsoever to do with the people of Illinois, the possibility of defeating Obama, or anything else. This has EVERYTHING to do with an infight between at least two powerful factions within the SCC.

Topinka and her minions have more power right now. they are the more moderate of the IL GOP. The other side are the hardline conservatives who have pulled in Keyes. The more I think about it, the more I realize it was brilliant of them to get the most disliked member of the SCC to suggest Keyes.

The funniest bit in this entire thing is both sides have incredible egos and both sides want their side to win this little power struggle. They both have missed the big picture of the war over the battle, though.

When it comes down to long term power in the IL GOP, the faction whose candidate wins this little election of 19 voters will lose the overall battle for which side controls IL GOP politics. Topinka stand to lose the most because when Barthwell loses, she will lose her post as the Chairperson.

If Keyes wins the election of 19 voters, the conservatives will be forever shut out of IL politics on this high a level.

[xcmt]

6. From a purely strategic standpoint...

The Republicans would be best off not running anybody. We already know any person they dig up to campaign against Obama is going to get demolished. It's a lost cause.

If they don't run anybody to oppose him, they can always say, in whatever future election Obama happens to be in, that he "has never won an election" which the media could run with. "He's untested, he's an amateur, no experience" etc.

I feel dirty for trying to look at the situation from the Republican perspective. Thankfully, they're idiots and they'll drag somebody completely unrealistic into the race for effect.

[Walt Starr]

10. I guarantee you, there will be a candidate

My money is on Barthwell. A Keyes candidacy will destroy conservatism in Illinois for years to come. Possibly more than a decade.

[Bullshot]

14. Regardless of whom the Republicans ran against Obama,

they've done him a favor. If Obama had gone through the election uncontested, the Republicans and their media stooges would have hung that label on Obama for his entire Senate career in an attempt to discredit him.

[Walt Starr]

15. Yep, this shows you just how fractured and incapable the IL GOP

leadership really is.

If they were smart at this point, they would run nobody. That would do the most damage to Obama's long term career.

If they run Barthwell, he wins anyway, but Topinka loses in the long term.

If they run Keyes, Obama is given an additional legup in his future career. Running Keyes against Obama GUARANTEES Obama the best committee appointments and GUARANTEES him a spot on the top ticket in the future. It also destroys the conservative movement in Illinois for YEARS to come.

My money is still on Barthwell.