Any predictions for the jobs report tomorrow?

[tritsofme]

The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls report will be issued at 7:30am CDT.

The street expects the UE rate to stay steady at 5.6%, and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls to expand by 243,000 in July.

My prediction is that the unemployment rate will edge lower to 5.5%, and we will add 175,000 payrolls.

I also think June's numbers will be revised up to the 150,000-175,000 range from the 112,000 issued in the preliminary report.

*note, 150,000 jobs need to be added each month to keep pace with expansion in the workforce*

[Elwood P Dowd]

1. Since Hannity says he has inside info and is all giddy

That probably means Roger Ailes has been told by Karl Rove that the Labor Dept has cooked some incredible books for the Bushit campaign.

[fearnobush]

4. If that is true, then he is in serious violation of the law. IF leaks did

come out, I feel todays market dump of -168 pnts Dow -33 Nasdaq would indicate other wise.

[tritsofme]

5. Its not being manifested in the currency markets

if a bad report was leaked.

Dollar ended up basically unchanged, and from what I can tell, its pretty stable in overseas trading as well.

[Elwood P Dowd]

6. Do repukes care about violating the law?

That's why this election is so critical to them. If, by some miracle, Democrats won the White House, Senate, and House, we wouldn't have enough courts and prisons to handle the load. Kerry would have to call off the dogs to keep the legal costs from becoming astronomical.

[cthrumatrix]

13. cooked like an apple pie...inside information is ILLEGAL and he should

behind bars

[Jack Rabbit]

2. Orange alert!!

[fearnobush]

3. Due to lower than june volume of new job postings at Monster.com

and the recent announced rounds of layoffs, coupled with even higher oil prices and a retail sales report down .07%..... I predict only 97,000. The UR will stay at 5.6%.

[kaiso]

7. Cook the books, burn the shorts in the market tomorrow, Dow up 200,

Nasdaq up 100, shorts burned, perfect spot for a temporary rebound.

[elsiesummers]

8. The WSJ was lowering expectations to 200K

...so it can't be but so good.

Between 175k and 200k seems likely.

Greenspan's ass is on the line - was June a soft patch or is he wrong and the recovery stalled when stimulous stalled?

If the jobs number is too low, what with the crude run up, the market will really start falling. And maybe the dollar too.

[tritsofme]

9. Really? Have you got a link to the WSJ story?

I hadn't heard this from them yet.

[elsiesummers]

22. Sorry no link/paper copy only/late info now anyway. N/T.

N/T.

[tritsofme]

10. kick

[Cat Atomic]

11. Lies. That's my prediction.

It'll take about a week for people to sift through their bullshit and find the flaws. It'll turn out that the truth is 180 degrees from what the administration claims.

[radfringe]

12. Dollar Falls on Speculation Jobs Report Will Be Below Forecast

Dollar Falls on Speculation Jobs Report Will Be Below Forecast
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aVpGpT3IDs9U&refer=germany

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for a weekly loss versus the euro and fell against the yen in Asia as traders speculated a U.S. jobs report will show companies added fewer workers to their payrolls last month than economists forecast.

The U.S. probably created 240,000 jobs in July, according to the median forecast of 74 economists polled by Bloomberg News, up from 112,000 in June. An industry report Wednesday showed an index of employment in the service sector, the largest part of the economy, fell last month. The U.S. currency headed for its first drop in three against the euro.

---snip---

Traders and investors expect U.S. businesses added about 242,000 jobs in July, an auction of economic derivatives showed. The results for the auction on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, part of the Labor Department's monthly report, are in line with the 240,000 median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Forecasts ranged from 170,000 to 350,000. It was the first of two auctions, the second will be completed at 8 a.m. in New York.

On July 2, the U.S. currency had its biggest drop in more than a month against the euro when the Labor Department said employers added less than half the expected number of jobs. The report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m., Washington time.

``The probability that a low payrolls number is followed by another low number is more than the market is assuming,'' said Marshall Gittler, a currency analyst in Tokyo at Deutsche Bank AG. ``The report may prove disappointing and the dollar could weaken.''

[TheWatcher]

14. No Matter What

Frodo will Spin It as Positive. :)

[tritsofme]

15. Last call

[DeepModem Mom]

16. Am I hearing the number is 32,000??? nt

[Connie_Corleone]

18. You heard right.

They also revised June's numbers downward to 72,000.

Bush is so done.

[Zynx]

17. The markets are wise. They predicted in advance that this number would

suck ass.

[cease_fire]

19. So much for Sean Hannity's insider information.

Wooops. Looks like Sean made a minor gaffe.


He must have used the same insider that Cheney used to claim ties between Saddam and Osama.

Dick Head.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. They SSSSSSSSSSSUCKED!!!!

literally. Quite a sucking sound as our economy implodes.

[nickinSTL]

21. ok, so they say 32,000...

Since they almost always revise these downward, how many is it REALLY?

My fiancee is still unemployed after 3 years of the Bush economy...

I don't see a big change here.

[elsiesummers]

23. Difficult to be pessamistic enough in predictions of Bush economy!

So much for Greenspan's June soft patch!

Perhaps no more unwinding of the carry trade?


The stock market and the dollar will be something to watch today!