Blog report from Baghdad: "Things in Iraq have taken a radically bad turn"

[Democat]

Meanwhile, I’m hearing reports from my fixers of fighting in Basra, Amarra, Najaf, Karbala, Nasariyah, Sadr City and the al-Shu’lah and al-Sha’ab ‘hoods in Baghdad.

A., my old friend, tells me four British troops have been killed in Basra and that Amarra is completely controlled by the Mahdi Army. He went to Karbala yesterday to visit friends of his and saw three mosques filled with “thousands” of weapons, including Katyusha rockets, Strella SAMs and more Kalashnikovs than he could count. Al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army has apparently used the two-month cease fire to regroup, train and purchase more weapons from Iran, and it’s likely that a lot more mosques than those three in Karbala have been turned into arms depots.

Things in Iraq have taken a radically bad turn, in my opinion, and the postponement of the national conference seems a bit of a storm in a teacup in comparison. The Americans and the Iraqi Interim government have bigger problems — e.g., another two-front insurgency — than whether a veneer of legitimacy will be slathered on by the seating of an Interim National Council.

http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/000799.php

Another voice from inside of Iraq. The update is not a good one.

[Joanne98]

1. This reminds me of something I read early last spring

Somebody reported that NGO's working in the Shia area were saying "something was up" because they were hearing reports of shia clerics telling worshipers in the friday prayers to "be patient". the NGO also reported the piling up up weapons. It was really creepy. I wish I could remember were I read that.

[coloradodem2005]

2. Goddamn media.

Things are still this bad in Iraq and they are still not reporting on it? This is another reason they should be brought up on charges.

[MaryH]

10. Watch PBS - Lehrer Report

They do report on it. John Burns was on last nite and he said things were a lot worse and detiorating.

Then they have discussions by all kinds of people - last nite they had 3 and all agreed things were not going well.

[iconoclastic cat]

3. That is very, very bad.

[sangh0]

4. What's Arabic

for "Tet"?

[lapfog_1]

6. That would be

Ramadan. Which begins in mid October (15th???) this year.

[sangh0]

8. Can you say

"October Surprise"?

[lapfog_1]

9. Could be...

But my guess is that if any serious fighting starts, the US
retreats to the "green zone" and lets the provisional gov
do the work (along with whatever mercs they hire). That would
be a disaster of course... but not one that will make the news,
since then, like now, terra terra terra (be AFRAID, but LOOK we
are rolling up the terrorist cells... see we entrapped these two
idiots in Albany, blah blah blah). Not to mention that they will
defrost Bin Laden in Oct (while claiming that information from
a laptop provided the links to finally find him).

So the strategy is...

Keep the economy off the page (lie about it... )
Keep Iraq off the page (keep our troops there but only offing them
2 or 3 a day)
Keep terra ON (be afraid)
Keep terra ON (but we are winning, must stay the course)

Forget about all of the rest (energy, pollution, health care, even gay
marriage)

So, Iran sponsors a "regime change" in Iraq, and we stick to the
green zone... if there is a fight, it will be over the oil fields.

[sangh0]

11. I disagree

I think the insurgents are PLANNING to make the US get involved in order to increase the perception that Iraq's sovereign govt is just a stooge for the US. They are going to launch an attack too big for the Iraqis to handle by themselves.

[lapfog_1]

14. Oh, you could be right

no matter what, Iraq is about to implode. Civil war is going
to break out, Kurds v. Sunni v. Shiia. And it's going to
be very ugly. Our guys can protect themselves if they aren't
running around in convoys and such... not that we won't lose
anybody. Oil is going through the roof as any instability
in the region is going to affect Saudi oil (remember that the
Kuwaiti and Saudi oil fields are all close to the Iraqi border).

[Elidor]

15. Look for an intense attack on the Green Zone, then

That's my guess.

[Beetwasher]

5. This Get's the DUH! of the year, possibly:

"Al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army has apparently used the two-month cease fire to regroup, train and purchase more weapons from Iran..."

Gee, ya think? Rummy's a fucking moron...

[catmandu57]

7. When it blowsup

we won't be suprised, but there'll be a hell of a lot of people with egg on their faces. Christ you can feel this coming from a mile away.

[Lyagushka]

12. Looks like it going from bad to worse- so much for the 'handover'

The BBC (and various agencies) have reported up to 300 of Sadr’s Militia have been killed in Najaf, and the reporter seemed to suggested that it was, at least, in part started by US forces. Sadr has disputed the number of dead, putting it at about 36 across the whole of Iraq, though it seems there is no independent means of verifying either figure.

There seems to be serious outbreaks of violence have across parts of Iraq and not just in Najaf as happened some months back. One Senior Iraqi spokesman interviewed on the BBC said the renewed fighting could destabilise the forthcoming elections (thus depriving Bush of another press announcement about the good news coming from Iraq, rapidly becoming another Afghanistan. The problem could me made worse if there is a prolonged absence of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani who is presently undoing treatment in the UK, which could lead to a power vacuum that Sadr could try an fill.

Juan Cole suggests that the situation could be similar to that of Iran in 1978- and either way, does not paint an attractive picture of what is happening there at present:

“It seems to me possible that this recent outbreak of fighting has initiated an endgame. It is hard to imagine Allawi and the Americans putting up with this challenge. The question is whether they can crush it without fatally wounding their own authority. I still think "Iran 1978" is the worst case scenario for Iraq, and a massive crackdown on the Sadrists, with Muqtada killed or captured, could set that ball rolling.”

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

13. Geeze.....

Today I was driving through an intersection of town where a group of pro and anti-Iraq invasion people stand holding signs and flags on opposite corners.
The pro invasion group is always smaller but have larger flags and wave them more vigorously (ain't that their style?). Anyhow, on one guys truck, the "I support the troops" sign had been modified with these words added "we're winning".
I thought to myself, "how in the hell can anyone think that? More importantly, what exactly are we winning anyhow?"
The problem is, they wouldn't believe any of this stuff if it hit them in the face...

[Massacure]

16. Katyusha Rockets and Strella SAMs?

I was surpised when they got their hands on RPGs, and now they have Katyusha Rockets?

I'm getting Deja Vu and I'm only 16!!!

[BillZBubb]

17. Why doesn't the liberal media ever cover all the GOOD news?

I keep hearing Repugs repeat that bullshit. Maybe it's because there isn't much good news? Duh!