If they can't find Osama will Al-Sadr be the October surprise?

[bluestateguy]

The US has a better idea as to where Al-Sadr is in contrast to Osama, whose whereabouts may not be so well known.

Get Al-Sadr's name in the news for several weeks and then capture him in October as the media heralds a "victory" for "President Bush".

It wouldn't be the election year trophy that Osama would be, but it could move the numbers a point or two or three for Bush.

[whistle]

1. Al-Sadar is a weak 2nd choice as far as terrorist leaders go...

...plus what would the impact be on the Iraqi population? I would think young and old would rise up in Iraq in massive protests, anger and even armed resistance. This might also provoke demonstrations here in the U.S. maybe not on the scale of the Vietnam era, but Bush wouldn't need much of a reason to declare martial law. So, maybe that is what Bush wishes to do. Provoke an uprising by Iraqi citizens against the U.S. occupation forces and the Iraqi puppet authorities, claim that order needs to be restored to preserve Iraq's democratic government, order massive retaliations against the uprisings, put this country into Red alert, then at the first sign of demonstrations here, declare martial law, suspend elections, muffle the media and the rest will be history.

[Tempest]

2. Most Americans don't even know who Al-Sadr is

He wouldn't do Bush any good.

And I doubt Al-Sadr will last until October.

[RFKHumphreyObama]

3. I think that it's unlikely

I could be wrong and perhaps al-Sadr's name will be promoted in the news media over the next few weeks but it just seems to me that he lacks the high profile and notoriety that some of the key players in this conflict have. For some reason I see catching al-Sadr as being a bit of a non-event in terms of impact on the US presidential election. Mind you FAUX and the other news networks will most probably be able to spin it to make it look like al-Sadr was a major capture so I don't rule it out.

I think it's much more likely to be al-Zarqawi if it isn't Osama. al-Zarqawi has been identified as the mastermind in the death of quite a few hostages and is considered one of the leading figures of the Al-Qaeda movement in Iraq. I think his arrest could be portrayed as a major capture and could boost *

[comradebillyboy]

4. if its al adr, the october surprise will be

a general shiite uprising