Floridians, you are under the gun again. (Hurricane Frances)

[Renew Deal]

This thing is a buzzsaw. I hope you are ready.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W+GIF/011503W.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[T Wolf]

1. So, god is still pissed

about the 2000 election? Maybe they'll get it right this time.

[RamblingRose]

4. My mom lives near the Space Center, and said they will not evacuate.

If residents wait until the last minute, there's no way the 520 & 528 causeways can handle the traffic. Even then, where will they go???

[Media_Lies_Daily]

6. If she lives on one of the barrier islands near the Cape, or if she...

...lives on the main coastline, she might consider heading deep into southwest Florida...maybe toward Ft. Meyers.

[fishnfla]

You need to talk some sense into your folks

they will not live to make this mistake twice

[Cheswick2.0]

38. tell them to go into the bathroom or other small central room

take a matress to put over their heads and hold the door shut with every bit of strength they have. When the wind stops their house may be gone.

Tell them to shut and lock all the windows and cover them with ply board if they don't have hurricane shutters. Tell them to make sure they have a good transistor radio that runs on batteries, plenty of candals and flashlites, food that is not parisable and doesn't need to be cooked.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

62. It'll hit the East Coast.& will be a cat. 2 by the time it gets to west fl

At least the people in Port Charlotte won't be decimated again. But if this thing hit Miami - it will be a total disaster. That's a lot of people....

No way in hell that the whole city could evacuate...

[Rockholm]

67. My family is ON THE BEACH in SC......

They stayed during Hugo, saying that they had been thru them before and there was no need to go. Never again. They told me afterwards that they would never do that again. As a matter of fact, my aunt is flying up tomorrow to Boston to see me just to be safe. RamblingRose, PLEASE tell them to get the hell out of there.

[madfloridian]

2. There is no way to be ready for that.

We are going to get hit again in Central Florida, only from the other side this time. No, we have supplies, but we are not ready. Not mentally or any other way.

[MsFlorida]

3. living on the beach......

sometimes isnt always the best! I wish everyone well. We will make it through this little storm too.

[AspenRose]

27. "Little storm?"

I read somewhere it was 300 miles wide and a cat 4.

Stay safe!!!!

[Misunderestimator]

5. Look at the size of this thing:

Let's all hope for a miracle that it lessens in strength or goes straight up north and never hits land... sheesh

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. When the pressure dropped to 937, that's when Frances started....

...to grow in size...by more than 50% since yesterday at this time.

[Zynx]

8. Yup, big bastard hurricane

The hurricane force wind accumulation of this thing is wider than Haiti.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604S+GIF/011503S.gif

Florida is going to eat this thing and anyone living on the coast should book for the west side of the Peninsula. Bloody EYE is thirty+ miles wide!

[TrustingDog]

9. jeeeeeeeeeeze, that's Huge. ::gulp::

[Individualist]

10. The size and strength of Frances

reminds me of Hugo in '89.

[Ripley]

12. Hugo ate my cousin's home on the beach in Myrtle Beach.

They got out okay, but everything they owned is in the Atlantic now.

Crazy thing is, they rebuilt almost in the same spot.

[Eloriel]

26. I heard last night the eye is 20 miles diameter

That sounded pretty big too. The photo is awesome. Unfortunately, there's just not a lot of landmass to slow 'er down, and all nice warm water in the path to keep her strong if not strengthen her further. Yikes!

Madfloridian -- my heart goes out to you and all Floridians (well, not Jeb).

[Media_Lies_Daily]

40. This was Andrew's size at landfall in 1992...

<>


...about 1/2 to 2/3 the present size of Frances.

[Misunderestimator]

42. Well, shit, that makes me feel all warm and fuzzy...

:(

[DS1]

58. My God, it's full of cars!

:evilgrin:

[Misunderestimator]

59. And cows I suppose...

[Pallas180]

11. Florida here, there's no way to be ready - worry about the roof

staying on is major. 5 miles from the beach...but with the size of
this thing it doesn't seem to matter where in Southern Florida you
are.

Bright sunshiney day today though.

[Cheswick2.0]

34. I have an excellent roofer to recommend to anyone

I would not recommend anyone marry him. (he's my ex-husband) But he is an excellent state liscensed roofer who is ethical and reliable. He also knows his stuff. His company is in Lake Worth.
And no I get no alimony or financial benefit from recommending him. But if you are in that area, do youself a favor and call him if you need someone.

PM me if you want his name.

[Misunderestimator]

44. I'll let you know on Sunday if I need his name :(

*knocking on wood*

[Cheswick2.0]

47. Where are you in Florida?

[Misunderestimator]

48. East of Tampa about 20 miles

On edit... too far from Lake Worth... for some reason I was thinking Winter Park.

[Cheswick2.0]

51. Ahh, okay

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

65. Ches...PM her about opera...you two have something in common!

[TSIAS]

70. That's right where I live

We live in Jupiter, which is about 20 miles north of Lake Worth.

[flvegan]

13. Chaos should set in for us tomorrow...

I donated all my supplies after Charley missed us (selfishly thankful) so I'll be out buying up plywood, water, ice and batteries today. Sadly, parts of Florida still have some folks in shelters and damaged homes will be completely destroyed due to their current state. I read that this thing is 300 miles wide...

[Zynx]

14. In TS winds, nearly 400 miles

The current information:

>>HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57
KM/HR EARLIER TODAY. <<

So the bloody HURRICANE winds are 160 miles wide (these are radius) and the TS go to damn near 400 miles. The eye is at least 30 miles wide.

This thing is gonna be well into eleven figures of damages.

[Renew Deal]

16. The winds are also expected to increase.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604I+GIF/011503I.gif

[Zynx]

17. Everyone near the coast- LEAVE

Riding out a hurricane to "protect" your home is stupid. There is nothing you can do if the thing is going to knock your house down. Except get killed by the mailbox coming through your front window at 130 MPH.

Prep the house as best you can and get out of there.

[Ripley]

18. The problem is...

Who should leave? The whole state of Florida can't go to Georgia. Besides, often when people leave, they get killed in a tornado spin-off.

I agree people need to have a plan where to go when it gets closer and is directly coming towards them, but it's too early now.

[Zynx]

20. True

Although they did pretty much evacuate all of Tampa for Charley.

I was referring generally to the concept of "I've been through X number of storms" or "I want to be here in case something happens" or "I am not leaving this house that I built."

A hurricane like this is going to destroy your house whether you are in it or not.

[Ripley]

21. Yeah. My parents rode a few out on NC coast...

because they didn't want to get looted and the Nat Guard wouldn't let them back in. But Fran was really bad and they leave now.

It's a hard decision to make I'm sure. No one wants to get stuck in traffic on a highway with it coming and who wants to live in a shelter for days and then see it turned and went somewhere else.

[abburdlen]

46. We left for Floyd

to go to Charlotte, normally takes 3.5 hour to drive to family there. We left the morning before Floyd hit and it took us over 8 hours. I'm terrified to think what would have happened if that storm had taken a turn like Hugo did. Thousands of motorist would have been killed on the highway.

If the this storm is heading for toward you I'm not saying stay put(and at this point that looks like West Palm Beach+/- 50 miles) leave as soon as possible.

[Ripley]

66. Oops, I think I meant Floyd.

I get those "F" named storms mixed up. That one really destroyed the folks' property.

I just read a computer model on my local TV weather site and it seemed to be saying Frances had a good chance of pulling a "Floyd" and going up the coast.

Take care all.

[RamblingRose]

23. That's the point. Several high schools in Brevard County are built near

the Banana & Indian Rivers. Same is true for the hospitals. Where to go??

[TeeYiYi]

25. Go inland to a hotel or motel with underground parking . . .

. . . after you've boarded up your windows and secured the house.

My friend just survived a direct hit from Charley. Her home is about 5 miles northwest of Punta Gorda and her business is on Boca Grande. She told me she will NEVER ride out another hurricane.

TYY

[Media_Lies_Daily]

29. If you look at the projected paths, Georgia is not an option, IMHO.

[Eloriel]

39. Sure it is

Unles you choose the wrong part of GA (like the coast) or you are trying to avoid every single rain drop.

Once the thing hits land it'll start to weaken considerably. Get on up to Macon, Columbus, or even Valdosta, people will be fine. Might get some storms, but they WON'T be a Category 4 Hurricane.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

43. I've been through six of them...you NEVER evacuate INTO....

...the projected path of an hurricane unless you have two to three days head start because of the amount of traffic that will be on the road. Hurricanes tend to spawn tornadoes in the northeastern and northwestern quadrants...which in this case would be in the leading edges of this storm.

Additionally, several of the tracking models have indicated that Frances may hit anywhere from southern Florida to the middle of South Carolina. Again, going north in this situation is NOT an option unless you start very soon.

[Occulus]

74. "the eye is at least thirty miles wide"

Holy God. An eye that, were you to stand in the exact center of it, would appear to be a clear and sunny day due to the 28 mile horizon.

Jesus!

[fishnfla]

15. they are evacuating the beaches today in Volusia

mandatory evacuation by Thurs, east of 95 mandatory evacuation on Fri.

Yup its a pisser alright

[ocean girl]

19. I live directly on the ocean in Boca and I'm pretty uneasy...

as a native Floridian, I've been through a few hurricanes, but this is pretty scary. We're packing stuff up and getting read to evacuate to my Dad's house, but he's only about 5 miles inland. This looks like the big one we've been dreading - just hope some of my condo survives!

[fishnfla]

22. You should be on the "soft" shoulder

the Northeast quadrant is the "hard" corner. With a storm of this size,it may not matter

[Pallas180]

28. HI Ocean Girl, - nice to meet you - I'm nearby off

Jog & Atlantic.....have window coverings but not doors coverings.

not worried about food and water - prepared for that

but I am worried about flooding from the Florida room and up the
driveway

AND the ROOF.

[Pallas180]

30. PS - they are saying it may hit 8 AM Saturday and

people who say "leave"

well, the top of Florida is an 8 hour drive from here - and where to
go... the roads will be clogged...

I wonder if they're gouging on the gas yet..

[Ripley]

31. I hope it misses you and your house.

If you think your roof is going to go...make sure you're under a mattress or something to protect yourself if you stay.

Stay safe!

[Cheswick2.0]

37. go south west

Go down to aligator alley (595) and take it across the state then head south.

[Renew Deal]

69. I think 8am is the eye

which means you will be dealing with it long before then.

[Occulus]

75. Pallas, try to get catch plane if you can afford it

Get OUT of there!

I have a bad, bad feeling about this. What if it decides to shift a few degrees south??

[KoKo]

71. Pallas, I couldn't believe where you live....My daughter is at

St. Andrews School there in Boca. I'm worried sick about her. She in the Dorm Head and in Charge of the Boarding Program at the school. I want her and my son-in-law to get out of there, but she says the school has told the boarders to stay in the dorms and since she's in charge she wants to stay with them. The Dorms are built before the codes were tightened and I don't think they are safe. My-son-in-law wants her to leave but she refuses. Only thing is where does one go? Looks like the whole state will be affected. And, they won't fly out and leave their animals.

This is so terrible. Stay safe. I've been through hurricanes...it's getting to be a regular thing in NC lately...I'm pretty psycho at this point about it all.

koko (Susan)

[Cheswick2.0]

36. shit, that includes almost everyone in florida I care about

I am assuming that also means Broward?

[patcox2]

50. That doesn't sound possible, "east of 95"

How could they possibly evacuate east of 95 over, what would it be, 150, 200 miles of florida coast. I used to live in Indian River County, which looks to be about dead center of the projection. I could understand evacuating the barrier island, but I'd guess 95% of the population is east of 95. It would not be possible to evacuate east of 95 if they started now, and there would be nowhere that they many people could go, given road capacity and the fact that there just ain't nothing inland (how many people could take refuge in Yeehaw Junction, or Fellsmere, 1,000?)

Its a 4, described as being able to remove the roofs from "some small houses." Sounds to me like the dangers of evacuation would far exceed the danger of sitting put (except for those in areas that would be affected by tidal flooding).

[Cheswick2.0]

52. Pat , the evacuated everyone east of 95 for Andrew

and that was in Dade country, so we are talking even more people.
This may be cat 4 now, but over two days it can easily become cat 5. I don't think they want to wait and find out.

[patcox2]

53. Jeeze, where would they go?

I am just looking at the map, and the projection is covering over 150 miles in an area where upwards of 90% of population is clustered near the coast, and in the whole area there is only one major north south artery (okay, 95 and 1) and one east west going to Orlando. It would seem impossible to evacuate all that population even if they started today.

What percentage of people in Dade east of 95 actually got out in 92?

[Cheswick2.0]

57. I think a good 80 percent got out

but the hurricane hit farther south than expected and it cut right across the state without slowing down. In South Miami yahts were lifted out of the ocean and dumped in swimming pools.

I think most people simply go farther west and stay in one of the shelters set up at schools.

[fishnfla]

76. east of 95 in Volusia county

its closer to the beaches here

[Nay]

24. So, this is a Category 4 right now, and is this huge?? Damn. As a

native Floridian, I say get the hell out NOW, anybody on the east coast of FL. When I was a kid in FL, we didn't panic at every raindrop, but we weren't stupid, either. Get out now.

[Renew Deal]

32. Have a look at the Saffir-Simpson Scale

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.


Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

[Cheswick2.0]

33. it's aimed just a few miles north of the ex-husband's house

I am glad my kids are not there right now. I hope he gets their little sisters out of there.

[SoCalDem]

35. Batten down the hatches...grab your pets and head for Louisiana

That would be my suggestion.. If you leave tomorrow, you should be ok..

Have fingers crossed for all of you :scared:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

41. Here's several excellent hurricane weather sites...

National Weather National Hurricane Center
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/>


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) Tropical Cyclone Page
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>


Tropical Weather Information
<http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html>


Tropical Cyclones
<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>


Weather Underground Trpical Weather
<http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/>


Hurricane Hollow Tropical Weather
<http://www.hurricanehollow.com/>


Hurricane Season 2004
<http://home.maine.rr.com/mailhot/hurrlinks.html>


Tropmet Online
<http://www.tropmet.com/>


Satellite Images
<http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/>


Sea Surface Temperatures
<http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst.html>


WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector
<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/waves-atlv.html>


FNMOC Wave Forecasting
<http://www.surfinfo.com/html/fnmoc.html[br />(Hint: Place cursor on link entitled "Current", and roll down.)


Gulf Stream
<http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/islands01/log/sep22/media/atlantic_currents.html>

[Samurai_Writer]

45. See where that "H" is at 8am Saturday?

That's where I am. Thankfully I was already planning to be away this weekend to visit family in Houston. Hopefully the airport will still be open 6pm Friday when my flight leaves. I'm taking my elderly cat with me, the other cat and dog are going to be at the pet sitter's/vet asst's, and I know she will take good care of them if they have to evacuate.

If the flights are cancelled, I'm picking up my pets and heading to stay with a friend in Virginia. Packing tonight and boarding up tomorrow night. Stay safe everyone.

[midnight armadillo]

49. Why oh why do they build such inappropriate housing there?!?

Stick building and mobile homes are just plain not suited for that climate. They should be building the homes low to the ground, with masonry round walls or domes, and using extensive earth sheltering. This would of course drop their air conditioning bills drastically as well. When then weather can show up and swat whole towns off the map, why do they then just rebuild like before?!??

Not to sound like an ad for the Deltec round home company, but
note the four round homes (made by Deltec) standing unscathed in the wake of Hurricane Andrew:
http://cbml1.mit.edu:8888/4round.jpg

: Deltec homes
Monolithic Domes

[silverpatronus]

54. my parents and little sister are in fl...

trying to get out tomorrow back to trinidad ahead of the storm. from what i'm seeing, that may not be possible. my uncles' (where they're staying) is dead in the storm's path. they may have to cut and run for the panhandle, or even further north into GA. i'm scared. all who believe in a higher power, help me pray for all of them please. and if you don't believe in prayer, send some good luck vibes their way.

[RedEarth]

55. Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

56. Very scary...

I'm in Orlando. One of the local weathermen just said to expect catastrophic damage for central Florida, especially on the coast. This does not sound good at all.

[Baclava]

60. Stay alert, stay safe, and don't panic.

If the storm is a strong Cat 3, Cat 4 or 5 hurricane approaching the first coast, I would recommend anyone East of 95 think about evacuating. Remember, these storms are very difficult to predict where exact landfall will occur. Don't gamble with it.

People that live within 10mi of the coast where the eye of the storm will hit are at ground zero .... EVACUATE. Brick or mobile home, it does not matter. That area is toast & the power will be out for 5-7 days. Take those things that can't be replaced like pictures & documents & go stay at a motel during that time far enough away. Don't be in a rush to get back. It's not going anywhere & you will have time to take care of your family & get some basic supplies in another town.

Go AWAY from the path of the storm, no one can predict exactly what these storms will do & the damage via wind or water that will occur. A direct hit and all of the hype is 100% accurate. Will buying batteries & 30 gallons of water make everything better - NO! Remember, without power there is NO water, because most of the water is pumped through stations using e-l-e-c-t-r-i-c-i-t-y!

If you decide to ride it out and do survive a Major storm, there is not much to after a storm but wallow in the misery. You will have no power (for up to weeks), have no water, and be completely surrounded by a warzone environment. It is not a fun place to be. The devastation will be there for months and you will see more than enough of it after the town gets established again.

Now if you are not at ground zero, flooding & moderate wind damage is the problem. If your area has ponding of water during occasional storms, then you are going to have some problems. You are going to have about 12 hours notice at the max for a real accurate forecast of the storm's course. If you are north & east of the storm the worst part is headed for you. Ex: If the storm hit St, Augustine straight on, JAX would get hit very hard but Daytona would only have about a 1/10th of the damage.

[soup]

61. If this isn't one of the most frightening graphics

then I don't know what is. Based on the current forecast track, this shows the wind swath across Florida:
http://flhurricane.com/

Please my fellow Floridians, don't take this monster lightly.

and Frances? Please register as a Republican IMMEDIATELY and make a hard right turn. thank you.

Best wishes to all in her path.

[KoKo]

72. Thanks for link to this site. It looks like a good one for information...

I'm not getting much from NOAA or Weatherunderground like what's on this site.

[RedEarth]

63. Florida Calls for Hurricane Evacuations

About 300,000 residents in coastal areas of Palm Beach County were told to evacuate starting 2 p.m. Thursday.


In Rockledge, about 45 miles southeast of Orlando, Brevard County told at least 50,000 residents to start evacuating mobile homes and barrier islands Thursday afternoon. In Stuart about 85 miles south, Martin County planned to urge up to 7,500 residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon Thursday. More evacuation orders along Florida's east coast were possible

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/ap/20040901/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_frances_florida

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

64. They are expecting

hurricane force winds to last up to 18 hours and tropical storm conditions to last for two days. There is going to be some major flooding if this happens.

[RedEarth]

68. Be careful....this thing is huge...

[FreeState]

73. There goes my vacation....

Im supposed to go to Cocoa Beach this Friday-Tuesday...

Seems the vactation Gods are against me... here is to hoping they will refund my tickets!

Hope everyone there is safe and prepaired...