"Iran October Surprise"

[G_j]

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=67&ItemID=6248

by Mike Whitney September 17, 2004

"We categorically deny any nuclear-related testing at Parchin." Hossein Mousavian, Iranian delegate to IAEA

"A prominent international expert said on Wednesday that new satellite images showed the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran may be a site for research, testing and production of nuclear weapons." (Reuters)

Even though a NIE (National Intelligence Estimate), which was released yesterday, expounded the many doomsday scenarios for violence-ridden Iraq, the Bush Administration is still busy establishing the groundwork for America’s next Middle East crusade. The allegations of an Iranian "nuclear bomb" facility are tantamount to an act of war; or so it is surmised among Bush loyalists.

As yet, we have no corroborating evidence that the photos show what they are "alleged" to show, but Hossein Mousavian, Iran’s chief delegate to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) board told Reuters that, "This is a lie…but we are ready to cooperate with the IAEA if they want to go"(inspect the site) This familiar tactic was employed by Colin Powell prior to the Iraq war when he produced myriad hazy photographs of chemical weapons plants to the UN, all of which proved to be entirely bogus.


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[nadinbrzezinski]

1. and voa says that the clock is ticking

charming... ok folks lay odds on a hot war BEFORE november?

(I mean ANOTHER one)

[Mikimouse]

2. You shouldn't be concerned...

It'll be another cake walk, just like Iraq. Oh, wait a minute...I just remembered something...Oh yeah, Iran has a FULLY ARMED AND MANNED ARMY! Oh yeah, a cake walk for sure, or is it slam dunk? (sarcasm off, but probably not for long!)

[Jackpine Radical]

3. A real army and 70,000,000 people.

[Mikimouse]

4. Yeppers! Let see ol' Mr. WAR PRESIDENT stand on the...

outskirts (not mommy's skirts!) of Teheran and tell THEM to 'BRING IT ON!

[supercrash]

5. Yes,

More people than Iraq and Afghanistan COMBINED

Remember Mossadeq, the Shah, and the 79 revolution ...?

[pat1962]

29. Stalingrad

Stalingrad is the perfect analogy to going to war with Iran. We would get sucked in and then eventually surrounded. The environment is brutal on equipment and men. This is not a Tom Clancy novel it is real life.

[kayell]

7. Nukes. georgie boy has been looking for the chance to play with some

This will be his excuse, since it would be impossible to take on Iran conventually. And the "extreme danger" of a nuclear Iran will "justify" it.

Even if we make it past the election without this, and successfully elect Kerry, the BFEE may saddle us all with a nuclear war as a fait accompli before the inauguration.

I am feeling very pessimistic today.

[TrustingDog]

8. it's most likely be an air war - MOABs and such.

the sleazy fuckers in DC have a few aces up their reptilian sleeves and are probably itching to use some of their new toys, may they burn in 412 hells.

[Jackpine Radical]

10. You can't win a war from the air alone in a country the size of Iran.

You need to gain, hold & search the ground. That's a formula for getting chewed to pieces.

[tlcandie]

16. Maybe they don't care about winning ...

*see Afghanistan and Iraq*

Maybe all they care is about chaos, death, destruction, and fear which, in their opinion, feeds their need for power/greed.

I don't see them as seeing any ONE invasion/war as necessary to be won. They are looking at the BIG picture...not the small one which we are limited to since we aren't in their little planning rooms.

[Mikimouse]

11. Hmmm...did I mention that they have a well developed air force...

as well as a large standing army? They had THE most effective air force in the middle east until the overthrow of the Shah (wonder what nation supplied their materials?). Anyway, they currently have a well developed air force, with US, Russian, and Iranian designed aircraft. In other words, a bombing war is probably not going to be as effective against them as it was against, say, an unarmed nation (not that I am thinking of any nation in particular, you understand) Sarcasm off, again, but not for long!

[TrustingDog]

14. we will see...

but my spidey senses tell me there will be many unpleasant surprises of apocalytic proportions.

Meanwhile, back at the Crawford Ranch and bunkers, the swill will be safe.

[BeHereNow]

17. NO Problem!

The BFEE will simply draft every walkin' talkin' red blooded
unemployed, uneducated 'murikkan to GO GIT em!
Sarcasm off-
Actually , I am scared beyond belief
because that IS their plan...they fully intend to control
the ME, with our tax money and our children.
They are insane and they fully intend to try it.
BHN

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. Iran has far more tougher terrain than Iraq and Afghanistan

Fighting Iran would bleed the armed forces dry.

[Jackpine Radical]

9. "bleed the armed forces dry"

You know, as a shot-up Vietnam vet I could have done without that image.

But yeah, you're right.

[Mikimouse]

12. I take my hat off to you, JpR...

and there is NO sarcasm in that! Glad you're not on the wall and are here!

[TrustingDog]

15. bleed them to what end? who's end?

kinda like outsourcing jobs?
Maybe money is getting boring for these gluttoness swine and world wide serfs and their blood is now the currency on the game board.

[G_j]

13. Excellent article: "The Next Imperial Lunacy..."

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=67&ItemID=6039

The Next Imperial Lunacy
Super-bully going to Iran?

by Aseem Shrivastava

The coming months may eliminate the question mark from the title of this article. And American civilization may well end up where Twain wished in his despair that it should.

History returns to haunt in strange ways.

<snip>

And that is what the shipment of 100 F16-1s to Israel and the stab at Najaf are about. They are meant to provoke Iran’s ruling Sh’iite theocracy into some form of military retaliation, which would give Bush the ideal pretext to attack Iran. There are already murmurs in the media (BBC, for instance) that there are Iranians fighting in Najaf. Hazim al-Shaalan, defense minister in the Iraqi stooge-government declares, "Iranian intrusion has been vast and unprecedented since the establishment of the Iraqi state."

That is also what the global "realignment" of US troops is all about. London’s Financial Times reports this weekend that 70,000 US troops are being asked to move, mostly from Europe. It is ominous when troops stationed in Germany since 1945 are going to be needed elsewhere. Where?

When one considers the history of faked incidents created by the US to start a new war – the sinking of the USS Maine in 1898 and blaming it on Spain and the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 for which the North Vietnamese were held responsible, come to mind, not to speak of Saddam himself being lured into Kuwait in 1990 (as the Senate hearings revealed) – it is far from unlikely that Iran will be inveigled into a war.

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[Eloriel]

20. Has this been posted in its own thread?

If not, by all means do (or hell, do it again).

[G_j]

22. When it first came out I posted it in editorials

on reading it again I had the same thought about re-posting it in GD.
Quite unfortunately it seems to be relevant. :-( :scared:

[neverforget]

18. October Surprise courtesy of Israel. What if Israel hit Iran's

nuke plant with our blessing and covert help next month? What would the retaliation from Iran be? Hit us in Iraq! With a cooridinated offensive with insurgents, they could invade Iraq and cut our supply line off from Kuwait since our forces are focused on fighting the insurgents. How much success the Iranians would have is debatable but it would certainly teach us a lesson: don't bite off more than you can chew! In other words, our supply line in Iraq is extremely vulnerable.

[Eloriel]

19. Uh, you've missed something

Attacking us in Iraq, or even retaliating directly against Israel, would provide the perfect, and I mean PERFECT rationale for us to just nuke 'em. I agree with the poster upthread who said that GeorgieBoy and his insane, delusional crew are just aching to use them.

[wrate]

21. Would a war with Iran assure *'s re-selection?

Because if it does, then it will happen. Also, can * attack Iran without a Congressional resolution?

[G_j]

23. I really don't think he would bother

to get anyone's approval. And I doubt the opposition in Congress would be very loud. Them Congress critters got elections comin' up ya know. What opposition there is will be downplayed by the media. They have learned that you can completely screw up a "war"
kill thousands of innocent people, cause thousands of American soldiers to be killed or maimed, overtax the military to the breaking point, make America less safe and hated all over the world, and still very few seem to give a shit.

[HEIL PRESIDENT GOD]

24. Possible that Iran will attack Iraq "preemptively"

nt

[pat1962]

25. Nuclear War

It is far more likely that Iran would attack Iraq conventionally. If you look at the numbers there are far more Iranian Units along the Iran Iraq border. The US has a total of 135,000 troops in Iraq and many of them are not infantry or combat units. Most of them are logistical. if the US tells Iran to disarm or face the consequences I can guarantee you that the Iranians will hit us quickly in defense of their country. Whether we like it or not Iran is a sovereign nation that has embassies in most countries around the world except ours. They will not put up with our threats. If a war breaks out along the border our troops will be caught between the Iranian and the insurgents. Our supplies lines would be under constant attack. This is not a pretty picture.

[jayfish]

26. I Concur.

Iran would have to attack lest they wind up like Iraq. A very bloody picture indeed.
Jay

[HEIL PRESIDENT GOD]

27. We would need a million troops to take Iran

Imagine what a target for insurgents that many troops would make, stuffed into the controllable areas of Iraq.

Imagine al Sadr as a fifth column for the Iranian invasion.

Imagine the American Stalingrad.

[goddess40]

28. Iran is the "I lost screw you surprise"

When bush loses in November he will pull something in Iran so that Kerry gets stuck hold that bag, like Iraq isn't enough.