Electoral College swings toward Kerry (according to this site)

[OutsourceBush]

Oct. 17, 2004

Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 253 Bush 247

Don't know the accuracy. Comments?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[featherman]

1. This site is well known to DUers and the cause of many threads

He is a DEM and a Kerry supporter but his formula is to use the most recent poll in any state, regardless of how wacky and out of sync it may be. Until recently this has caused much consternation over wild and wacky maps especially since he gives as much valuable to the Strategic Vision (GOP) polls as independents. Etc, etc. I like the site and find it value but you have to remember many of the polls listed have inborn bias and are mostly inaccurate small sample polls. Please only read this site interpretively if you are familiar with the electoral history of the states so you can make certain mental adjustments.
At least that's my advice.

[faithnotgreed]

2. featherman, i always look for your posts on the poll threads

you clearly have a grounded, experienced perspective which makes me trust your input

thank you for weighing in.. the final two weeks are upon us and i look forward to hearing from you

[featherman]

4. gee...thanks! (blush, blush)

[wtmusic]

5. Not true, since Oct. 4

he uses an average of the last three polls. This was long overdue and IMO increases the value of the data considerably

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/polling.html

[OutsourceBush]

8. Strategic Vision? That's a little mom and pop operation

I can't say how, but I met these people one time. It is a husband and wife team. I don't see how they could possibly do polls of any sort with their small size. Maybe a couple employees max. Why the heck would he use such a partisan tiny source? Strange...

[richmwill]

3. Decent accuracy

From what I've followed of this site, I'd say it's fair in analysis. The only thing I don't like about it, is that the webmaster includes Strategic Vision polls, which are always beyond ridiculous in their Republican leanings (I think they actually polled NY as being within 2% points for Bush in one survey).

[beyurslf]

6. I check him every day personally. Just keep in mind he still uses

Strategic in his site and they are horrible in their polling.

[blackcat77]

7. Their numbers swing wildly from one day to the next

They use the newest numbers for each state regardless of the reliability of the pollster. I don't really like to take this site's word for anything though it is good for having polling information updated every day.

For a better, more rational guess, I'd suggest http://www.race2004.net/

[OutsourceBush]

9. Very nice looking web site, wonder what people think of that one

? Looks more professional too.

[OutsourceBush]

10. I see they use Strategic Vision mom-and-pop GOP poll too

So it looks like something is very strange about these two websites to me. Click on Florida for an example and see Strategic vision polling numbers being used there. Something smells about that and yet Kerry is still the projected winner.