How Low Can Bush's Ratings Go?

[maha]

The Wall Street Journal took issue with Josh Marshall's recent assertion that Dubya's job approval numbers are in free fall and will continue to decline. WSJ's basic argument is that if Dubya's approval numbers continue to fall as fast as they've been falling lately, he'll be at minus 11 percent by September 2003. And since that isn't possible ...

Mathematically, then, Bush's "free fall" has to end at some point, with his ratings at least leveling off. And it seems likely that his "bottom" is a lot closer to the current 49% than to zero, for the simple reason that his own party remains united behind him. (James Taranto, "Best of the Web Today," WSJ Opinion Journal, September 25, 2003)

Well, they do have a point -- he can't fall to a minus percentage, unless you count me several times. So the question is, how low can he go?

If the WSJ is right, and registered Republicans remain solidly behind Bush, then he could go as low as 35 percent. I understand that's the percentage of voters in 2000 who identified themselves as Republicans (39 percent Democrats; 27 percent independent).

But then, of course, there are self-described "independents" who are dittoheads (and therefore Bush supporters). And there are Republicans who are real Republicans and don't like the growing Bushie budget deficit (I've met some of 'em at Howard Dean meet-ups). So I don't think you can go by that.

Bush won't fall to zero, because there is a segment of our population who will stand by him no matter what. The man could ride a tricycle down Pennsylvania Avenue, naked but for a clown wig, and there are some who would call it the beginnings of a bold new transportation policy.

I call this phenomenon "Peggy Noonan Syndrome."

There are no polls that will tell us how many have an incurable case of PNS, but my guts tell me it's somewhere around 30 percent of the voting population, give or take a lot. So, I predict that Bush has falling room below the current 49 percent, but no matter what he does it won't go below the 30s.

But that's low enough.

[Brucey]

1. Right, and also,

there are a lot of people who think it's just wrong (poor etiquette) to say bad things about the president. So, I think he is about as low as he'll go. I doubt if his approval rating will go below 46 or 47.

[Systematic Chaos]

2. Didn't Nixon manage to hit the mid 20's?

Never say never....

[maha]

6. Nixon wasn't idolized even by his supporters.

And believe me, I'm way old enough to remember. I don't think anyone thought Nixon was the second coming of Jesus. Even his supporters knew Nixon was mortal.

[DrWeird]

12. In a post-watergate survey...

Nixon placed first in a most hated person in america poll, narrowly defeating Hitler and Satan.

[RobertSeattle]

3. "Peggy Noonan Syndrome"

That's a keeper.

Thanks.

[Zero Gravitas]

4. minimum

25-30% hard core, delusional religous nuts and "DemocRATS are commies" types will always support the Former Texas Governor.

[indepat]

9. That's a lot of warped people: sadly the number might be even

higher.

[maha]

11. Could be.

It's hard for me to tell, 'cause I'm living in New York these days. I would guess the hard-core warped would be below 40 percent, though, at most.

[Beetwasher]

5. 35% seems about right give or take a few points

n/t

[MoonRiver]

7. Everybody! Do the Bush poll limbo!

And let's see how low he'll go! :toast:

[janx]

14. We'd have to dig undground to do that.

Just wait a few more months. It's going to get worse for the Chimpster.

[boxster]

8. I think he could hit the 30's, but

I also think he could murder a couple of kids on live TV, and he'd still get 30%.

[maha]

10. They would have deserved it, of course.

If Shrub does it, it must be right!

[Brotherjohn]

13. PREDICTION: 40% by year's end (average of all polls).

That's where the Pollkatz graphic shows the trend is headed (see below), and that's what I've been saying for months.

Of course, another war, terrorist attack, or sudden 100% employment could change this seemingly inexorable trend, but I don't think that's likely. The first two would likely hurt him this time (people are tired of it, and would blame him for making them less safe). The last one... yeah, right!

Now that enough is known about how he's governing, the results are rolling in. People have made up their minds, and what it amounts to is this: he's got his core 30% support, and another 10% will continue to be suckered in by the scare tactics. That's about it.

[LuminousX]

15. Rate of Descent

The rate of descent seems fairly consistent except for 9/11 and Iraq War bumps.

I think we can see that Bush's 'default' level is around 55%. The current below-50% ratings represent the people who don't normally say negative things about the President are registering their dislike. I believe the lowest he can go without being ousted by his own party is 46%. Anything below 46% is a mutiny in the ranks of the Republicans and will result in Bush choosing not to run for 2004.

[Brotherjohn]

16. What I find encouraging is that the rate of descent now looks steeper.

Steeper after Iraq than before Iraq. It seems as though Iraq gave Bush a momentary bump, but then people begin to turn against him at an even faster rate.

Both lines (pre- and post-Iraq) seem to converge around 40% by year's end. It's almost as though it's written in stone!

[maha]

17. Interesting

I also have wondered if there's a bail out point with Bush. I don't think he'd do it voluntarily, but at some point if it becomes apparent he's going to lose in 2004, will heads of the GOP go to Bush and tell him to step down?

Two subquestions to this question:

(1) He's still raising huge amounts of money. Would he be able to turn that money over to another candidate, if he stepped down? If so, is there a deadline to consider? (I guess that's a sub-sub question.)

(2) Who in the GOP is independent of the Bushies yet has the chops to tell him to step down?