Some additional info about the bird flu

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/health/health.php?story=dispatch/2005/10/09/20051009-A10-00.html

Bird flu threat is real but not immediate, scientists say
Viral strain may not hit pandemic level, although signs are ominous, experts say


<snip>Alarm heightened on Thursday when a scientific team led by Taubenberger reported that the 1918 flu virus, which killed 50 million people worldwide, was also a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

There is a crucial difference: The 1918 flu was highly contagious, while today’s bird flu has so far shown little ability to spread from person to person. But a mutation making the virus more transmissible could set the stage for a pandemic. snip

Some scientists suspect that if H5N1 has not caused a pandemic by now, then it will not, because it must be incapable of making the needed changes. snip

The fear "is very much overdone, in my opinion," said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu.

The bird flu, he said, is distantly related to earlier flus, and humans have already been exposed to them, providing some resistance. Scientists also say that the death rate may not be as high as it appears, because there may be some milder cases that have gone unreported.

Kilbourne emphasized that medical care has improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then drowned from fluid leaking into their lungs, many more likely died of bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.

[valerief]

1. This is heartening to read

>>>Kilbourne emphasized that medical care has improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then drowned from fluid leaking into their lungs, many more likely died of bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.<<<

Now America just needs health care to afford those antibiotics.

[tavalon]

10. Heartening perhaps

except it is ignoring a very big issue. Our healthcare system, even if limited to those who can pay for it, cannot handle the massive morbidity of a pandemic and when it collapses under the weight of it, the mortality rate will skyrocket. So, we'll save some of the people in the first few weeks then getting antibiotics will be pretty much impossible.

[thinkingwoman]

2. Thank you for posting this!

"The fear 'is very much overdone, in my opinion,' said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu."

That's the money shot right there.

Nominated.

[bonito]

3. And colloidal silver n/t

[alittlelark]

9. Colloidal silver kills every pathogen it has contacted...

But if the virus invades your bod it will be difficult to 'contact'.

[bonito]

12. It can be inhaled with a nebulizer

I've used it many times successfully with some pretty nasty infections where the lungs are concerned.

[fishnfla]

4. 2 words: antigen shift

3 ideas: By their very nature a virus mutates in order to propagate itself
: IF (THE BIG IF) the H5N1 virus finds the proper code to transfer infection from birds to people, and then mutates yet again for human to human contact, the human race may not have immunity for it.
:IF (another IF) the virus is as virulent as the 1918 version(different strains have different strengths) it could be very deadly.

So yes the possibilty is there. Perhaps the fear is overblown. But I am glad for one thing: education is the most important step in public health, so discussion of this issue is valuable

[NNN0LHI]

5. It has had 8 years to make an antigen shift that would lead to a pandemic

As some scientists suspect perhaps H5N1 does not have that capability? It would be nice if that were the case.

Don

[SaveElmer]

6. Also...

Viruses that do not kill off their hosts are the most successful, so there is a belief that if it did gain the ability to move from human to human easily, it would weaken in severity.

[MildyRules]

15. Re your statement

"IF (THE BIG IF) the H5N1 virus finds the proper code to transfer infection from birds to people"

It seems that it already HAS done this; just not very effectively. It's the person-to-person transmission that heretofore has been very rare.

[whatever4]

7. I'm beginning to become conflicted over bird flu

"Although there has been much controversy about whether human to human contact has been confirmed in H5N1 cases, Dr. Niman said 15 to 20 clusters have been uncovered overseas and human to human passage of the deadly virus has been known since 2004."

from
http://www.arcticbeacon.com/articles/article/1518131/33865.htm
Human to Human Passage of Deadly Avian Flu Verified Overseas; World Health Organization Refuses to Acknowledge As True
Microbiologist, Dr. Henry Niman, says don't rely on government to protect against Avian flu since it is "playing catch-up" and vaccines are ineffective against new strains. He warns Avian flu is coming and it could be deadly.
20 Sep 2005
By Greg Szymanski

I just read this, and now I'm starting to wonder what kind of a risk, in terms of odds and timeframe, we're really facing. I just can't sort through all this muck...will we see it this winter, in time to hit the hardest with the heating issues many people will face, and if so, can this sucker move around the world in a matter of months, and move across the nation in a matter of weeks? Just wondering... I'm hoping this thing at least holds off until the energy/heating fuel issues have, maybe, some time to be worked out. But would next year be any better? No way to plan.

I'd like to please edit to add I'm sorry if this sound very alarmist, I don't mean to come off that way. Hate to think I'm falling for some propaganda-type hype myself.

[tavalon]

11. I've been watching this one for a few years now

because it will likely take me out and I hate being caught unprepared. Always have.

I don't think it's going to make it here this year. I think it's more likely next year and even more likely the year after.

[whatever4]

17. I hope not

"because it will likely take me out"

I hope you're wrong there friend, hope you're flat wrong. Hope you outlive me :)

[Taxloss]

8. Fifth vote. A timely article.

Bird flu IS rather scary; it might still be quite bad. But then you look at African countries that have one-third of their population infected by AIDS and you begin to get some perspective.

[supernova]

13. Finally some decent info

on the real chances of it developing into a pandemic.

We have to remember that the best thing is to wash your hands. So many people don't.

[Inland]

14. Too late, today's op-ed and NPR reports have me depressed.

We always knew that contagion was part of the deal of an interconnected, highly populated world. But the fact that chickens might be incubating the virus that is going to wipe out a few millions has put me off my lunch of leftover grilled oregano you-know-what.

[NNN0LHI]

16. I didn't think this tread would be very popular. Not scary enough

Wheres all the Tamiflu stockholders on this one?

Don