Bad News - Gallup says Bush is back up to 55% on job approval

[dutchdemocrat]

More than half of the American public currently approves of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

http://www.gallup.com/

[joeybee12]

1. Sounds fishy to me

I'll wait until he invades Syria before I believe any blip.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Arnie Bounce!

Bouncy-bouncy.

--bkl

[Democat]

8. Arnold will help Bush for a short while at least

He may help him in the long run if the media continues to promote Arnold as the best thing that every happened to America and if Democrats don't do something to neutralize him.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. first off

the only poll that counts is on election day

second off there have been some "good news" from their
point of view... hence that may explain it, after all
the teevee has run that

[Atman]

4. I don't believe it

I think it is a foregone conclusion that the Bushista regime is going to manipulate any fact and figure it can to keep the sheep in the flock, be it employment, Iraq deaths, or poll numbers. Bush said it himself...he's going to run America like a business. Witness, the "marketing campaign" for the Iraq war.

That is SOOOO Bush...and so big business. Don't fix the problem, just change the marketing. And with the tens of millions his campaign has to spread around, I have no problem believing this kind of stuff couldn't be rigged. I doubt it is even against the law. (Which, I admit, would be out of character for the Bushistas).

[newyawker99]

16. Hi Atman!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[devinsgram]

21. Just sent them an e-mail

to tell them I don't believe their poll. I think it is phoney. I for one have never met, talked to or even heard of anyone who was polled.

[SCDem]

5. Was 45% on the radio this morning

must have changed fast....

[displacedtexan]

6. pollingreport.com doesn't have the numbers you cite

when was this poll taken?

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

never mind. i found it. but before you believe the gallup, look at the others. even fox has him at 50%.

[amber dog democrat]

7. Nothing surprises me anymore

But he is still beatable.

[Bucky__Badger]

9. what I find humorous about this board...

is that every time Bush's numbers fall we all shout, "He's going down! He's going down!!"

Then, if his numbers are good, we say... "Hmmmm.... this seems fishy... must be push polling! Must be a skewed sample."

Bottom line: THIS IS BAD NEWS! Bush has bottomed out and is on the rebound. The Wilson matter has been put to rest in the media, which is the only place it matters. None of Bush's sins have involved a blowjob, so all is forgiven. Bottom line is, Joe Sixpack loves dubya. The clueless soccer moms love dubya. DU is an isolated island of discontent.

ROVE IS IN CHARGE. He is truly an evil genius. While the dem candidates and their supporters devour each other, Rove has the pugs reading from the same playbook and executing. Dirty or not, their tactics work. I'm beginning to think the democratic primary is nothing more than a contest to see who gets trounced by Karl Rove in November.

[KharmaTrain]

14. Amen...Are We The Only Ones?

It's time to take a real close look at what's going on here and fight it head on. BushCo is a slick media machine that's sitting in idle at the moment, next year it's gonna crank up and we have to be ready to counter it. I'm not sure Democrats have gotten that message yet.

[Imajika]

30. Great Post IMRadioactive

"It's time to take a real close look at what's going on here and fight it head on. BushCo is a slick media machine that's sitting in idle at the moment, next year it's gonna crank up and we have to be ready to counter it. I'm not sure Democrats have gotten that message yet."

This is the absolute truth. I have little doubt that some of the Democratic party heirarchy do understand this, but I don't think most people on this forum do.

If the worst we can do is drop Bush to around 50% in the polls before he even launches his "re election" jugernaut, we are in serious trouble.

The Rove campaign machine is doing exactly what you say - sitting idle. It is just waiting for a top Democratic candidate to emerge that the GOP thinks will likely win the Democratic nomination. If that candidate is someone they think they can trounce anyway, they won't attack him/her until the nomination is secured so that there is no chance of losing easy prey. If the top Democratic candidate looks like someone who is a great danger to Bush, the GOP slime machine will pour millions into damaging said candidate sometime early next year.

Despite on the nonsense talk of "Bush is done" or "Bush is toast" I keep seeing on DU after every mini-scandal hits the papers, the truth is that Bush will be incredibly hard to beat. Infact, I'd say at this moment the odds are not with us.

Imajika

edited for spelling

[Corgigal]

10. This months The Atlantic

has a story about Rummy and his ties to Gallop. I didn't check to see if its online , but man, once you read that article this poll makes sense.

[joshdawg]

11. Polls mean very little

Gallup and others ask the same people over and over again. These same people(rich republicans) respond the same way over and over. These polls mean nothing or very little.

[Bucky__Badger]

12. sorry, but we can't have it both ways

If polls mean little when they support Bush, then they mean little when they are bad news (for him).

I agree that the sample is skewed toward pugs. But this STILL shows Bush is surging- even if it is primarily with his base.

[DemNoir]

13. Well..

The Gallup pole consistently shows Bush much higher than most other poles.

He's surging? For what possible reason?

[Lexingtonian]

15. But Gallup skews that way

Almost always 5%-8% (these days, more to the high end of the range) more favorable to conservatives than the median of the dozen or so better polling operations.

So it could well be that the reality to be found in Gallup's polling number is a 48% approval rating, which is a drop of 1%. It could be that their previous poll erred by 1%-2% in measurement of whatever it measures, so the reality is still a constant decline.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics....

But Presidential polling numbers to have a way of stalling around 50%. You get 35% True Believers and a 15% non-critical optimistic assessment. (15% happens to be the standard difference between reelect and approval numbers in Presidential polling- they're people who have no argument with the President but can't think of a reason to vote for him, either.) When approval goes below the 50% mark, then you know that his base is having trouble with him. Under 45% you hear lots of squawking out of the President's Party and a lot saying they won't vote for him.

So 48% approval is in the danger zone for W. Just don't forget that 48% is represented in Gallup polls as "55%"!

[Booberdawg]

17. What the hell could have cause a bounce??

[Bucky__Badger]

18. the bounce has been caused by (in my layperson's opinion)

1. Governor Schwarzenegger

2. The fizzling of the CIA leaking matter

3. the positive perception people have of Bush when he goes on tour.

[underpants]

20. The fizzling of the CIA leaking matter?

No offense (and Welcome ot DU :hi: ) but I wouldn't say it has fizzled. We are in the investigative stage and as the winter months hit and our collective fat a**es plop down in front of the box the discussion will take on new life.

I have no idea why it would go up. Insiders have admitted that they have been off their game, the wind isn't at their back any more.

We'll see but this one number may be out of step with the other polls just as the the Zogby 45% approval rating a few weeks ago seemed to have been. I will try to find the link to the really great poll tracking site.

[Bucky__Badger]

22. yeah, I really think that Wilsongate is over.

This is one of those things where I'd be simply elated if I am wrong!

But, the way I see it, the media has dropped it, so for the average American, it's over. The administration says move on, so the sheeple move on. The FBI will finish their whitewash... maybe a pawn or two gets thrown overboard, and that's the end of it. See, all Bush has to do is say "national security," "war on terra," and "9/11" and the sheeple will say "Oh, OK" and drop it.

Now, show me that I'm wrong. I WANT TO BE WRONG ABOUT THIS, DAMMIT!

[leftchick]

32. curious why you refer to Treasongate as Wilsongate?

Isn't that how rush-pigpoy refers to it too?

[Bucky__Badger]

36. if you're implying that I'm a fan of Rush or the pugs you are W R O N G

Excuse me for not using proper DU lingo.

[underpants]

35. Remember we haven't really heard from the FBI (the investigators)

Investigation generally don't only rely on what information the accused or suspected feel is relevant. No, investigators determine what they think is pertinent and they start there and move in.

The White House is trying to spin this that they are completely compliant and interested (of course it took two months for them to even mention it). This is a pre-emptive move for when the FBI/Special Counsel wants to have a look at the source site and the White House can throw up their hands and paint themselves as victims of political games and a witchhunt.

[spooky3]

23. 2 possibilities

1. Random variation (poll error)
2. There were some economic reports a few weeks ago that had some data that they spun favorably (others viewed them as "wait and see" or worse). People may believe that we've bottomed out on the economy and soon things will be looking up. We'll see whether that's true.

[snippy]

38. I think you are right, particularly your second point.

I also think it may be relevant to this poll that neither the Wilson affair nor Iraq has generated any new information that continues to reveal how crinally incompetent and incompetently criminal the Whistle Ass administration is. As that new information develops, as it surely will, the downward trend should resume. On Wall Street this poll would be called a dead cat bounce.

[DemNoir]

19. Wait a minute

If you go to Gallups site its nothing but bad news for Bush, I dont even see the purpose of this thread.

[RedEarth]

24. The sentiments of many people are like dust in the wind

It changes with what the media is reporting. The last two weeks have been arnold and kobe, and the public has lost site of the economy, Iraq and "leakgate".

[CMT]

25. Gallup usually has Bush higher than other polls

eom.

[59millionmorons]

26. Let me know when Zogby has a poll

I said it here a million times. Gallup and Wash Post always poll high.

[Bucky__Badger]

27. BUT that still doesn't answer the question...

Why is Bush trending upward???

[seasat]

29. One point does not indicate a trend!

Gallop has an error of +/- 3% in the poll. Polls can also be influenced by a current news story. If someone that is waffling on Shrub sees a news story that is positive about him then gets polled, they may give him an approval. I generally look at all the polls on pollingreport.com to determine if there is a trend. It looks like Shrub is still trending down.

[leftchick]

33. don't waste your time...

BB seems to have an agenda....

[Bucky__Badger]

37. yeah, I didn't say what you wanted to hear.

I MUST BE A NEOCON PLANT! I MUST BE A PNAC SIGNATOR!

MAYBE I'M RUSH'S OXYCONTIN SUPPLIER!!!!

BURN HIM!

BURN HIM!

[ProfessorGAC]

31. He's Not

The best way to look at polls is as a time weighted average of the past 6 months of all polls.

When all the polling firms complete their most recent polls, you will find that the Gallup number is within the margin of error of the polls. (They apply a 95% confidence interval that is usually around +/-2%.) So the average will show that he's essentially plateaued for now.
The Professor

[Stupdworld]

28. 52-50-55 is insignificant

until he starts polling near 60, i dont buy it as any move up.
you can get different results from your polling sample within a week. maybe they just got more freepers this time. if it is a truly random sample sometimes that just happens. out of 1017 they have a 3 percent margin of error. think about it it isnt bad news. its no news

[Silverhair]

40. Correct

[leesa]

34. Not possible. Nothings changed...only gotten worse

Why would approval go up? GOP owns these polling places just like they own the media. they push it around any which way they want.

[Saudade]

39. Bush

I agree that this is an Arnold effect, but I tend to think it's temporary.

What is not temporary is this:

American soldiers dying every day in Iraq, for no apparent reason. The media will always make this front page news.

Paying for the seemingly endless and lethal Iraq occupation hits Americans in their wallets, especially in a bad economy.

These combined factors are not going away any time soon, and are responsible for the steady decline in Bush's popularity over the past few months.

I don't take this Arnold effect too seriously.