Gulf Coastal DUers, here we go again. Tropical Storm Arlene.

[Maddy McCall]

I live inland in southern Mississippi, but if the storm comes in through Biloxi or New Orleans, we'll get some of it.

My cousin who lives in Pensacola has no home right now. Iva completely destroyed his home, but he's rebuilding. I hope Pensacola will be spared this year.

Here's the latest three-day projected path. Not looking too good for Mobile, Biloxi, and New Orleans. Highest strike probability is Biloxi to Mobile.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105W+gif/212053W_sm.gif

Here's the water-vapor image of the storm, just south of the west tip of Cuba:



The latest discussion at NOAA says that the storm is expected to strengthen once it enters the Gulf, because the wind shear that has been maintaining it at lower tropical storm level will fade. Plus, that warm Gulf water has a way of strengthening tropical storms, as I am sure many of you Gulf coasters know.

Good luck, everyone. Let's hope that Arlene loses power before she hits. Sad to say, that doesn't look probable, though.

:scared: :grouphug: :scared:

[Patsy Stone]

1. I live in S. Fla

but this is the first one, so I thought I'd post and send along my best wishes that this doesn't hit.

[merh]

6. Hi ya Patsy.

Wonder how many of these we will have to worry about this year? :scared:

[Patsy Stone]

7. Well, it's getting started early.

So that can't be good. Be careful and stay safe, merh.

[merh]

10. Oh, I will, thanks.

:hug: I'm not boarding up for this one, it will be a nuisance storm, probably sit and watch it from the house rather than head inland. Maybe I'll get some good digital photos out of it.

I'm like you, can't stand the thought that there is a storm this early. :scared: It scares me for the rest of the season.

[Baclava]

23. It's gonna be a wet one...

[merh]

33. Do they predict how many inches of rain?

I haven't seen that prediction yet.

:eyes:

[Baclava]

45. From the NOAA site...

ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...THE APPALACHIANS...THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

[merh]

46. thank you

:hi:

[trof]

31. Turtles bring bad weather news.

There was a Florida marine biologist on thuh teevee yesterday.
Last year turtles built nests (or whatever they hunker down in) at higher elevations than normal. They were above the high water mark of all of Florida's 2004 hurricanes.

The bad news:
They're building even higher this year.
I'm gettin' a pet turtle.
;-)

[merh]

35. Where can I get one of those turtles!

I'm off to secure things in the yard.

Right now it is beautiful here, the calm before the storm.

Take care and hope you fare well through TS Arlene. :hi:

Let me know about the turtles! :eyes: We are in for a season. :scared:

[merh]

2. I live on Biloxi Back Bay

The west side will be better than the east. I just hate that it's beginning this early. Just another headache. :shrug:

Edited: Thanks for the well wishes. :hi:

[bunny planet]

3. My prayers are with everyone there now. I don't know how any of us in that

area, including my family can stay sane if we have another psychologically and physically draining summer of storms like last year.

Charlie just missed my family by a hair. It was so freaking scary.


:grouphug:

[KG]

4. here's hoping my Jimmy Lafave concert don't get rained out...

:(

[BikeWriter]

5. I suppose we'll get a shitload of rain here in Galveston County.

[kittenpants]

8. Does everyone have plywood? And water Don't wait!

note to self: get plywood.

[xmas74]

9. Good luck.

Are you all stocked up?

[SW FL Dem]

11. Arlene is NOT expected to be a hurricane

it will strenghten a little but should still be a tropical storm when it hits land. The scariest thing is that we have our first named storm on June 9.


Here is a great site for tracking hurricane activity.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[merh]

12. Thanks for the link.

You may want to post it in the weather group. :hi:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=328

[amazona]

18. June 9 -- not so scary any more

In 2003 the first named storm was in Ana in April and the last in December with Odette. At least June is actually "in season."

[Maddy McCall]

13. kick

[Maddy McCall]

14. Arlene is strengthening. May be minimal hurricane before she hits.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/101502.shtml

000
WTNT41 KNHC 101502
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

ARLENE HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 64 KT ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT
1130Z. THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS
THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON THIS DATA...AND BASED UPON A 35
KT REPORT FROM SHIP PFRX AT 1200Z. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING...AND ARLENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ARLENE COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE.

SINCE YESTERDAY...ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...SEVERAL
CENTERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER
CIRCULATIONS. DESPITE THE RELOCATION TO THE NORTH...ARLENE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.0N 84.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 26.2N 85.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 28.8N 87.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 31.1N 88.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/1200Z 33.8N 88.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[amazona]

15. going out for storm supplies in a bit

I think this one will stay a tropical storm but since it was a tropical storm that smashed my house a couple years back I'm still a little nervous about them. Don't be scared. I have a good feeling about this one, knock on wood. I just don't think it will amount to such a much. Of course I'll make preparations anyway since my psychic skills are not 100 percent.

[Maddy McCall]

19. Good luck...keep us posted.

:hug:

[Maddy McCall]

16. Highest strike probability is from Gulfport to Pensacola.

000
WTNT71 KNHC 101453
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

28.8N 87.3W 43 1 X X 44 GULFPORT MS 9 23 X X 32
31.1N 88.5W 5 27 X X 32 BURAS LA 13 14 X 1 28
33.8N 88.8W X 12 12 1 25 NEW ORLEANS LA 4 18 1 X 23
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X 7 4 X 11
CEDAR KEY FL 1 X X 1 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 1 2
ST MARKS FL 2 4 2 X 8 GULF 29N 85W 22 2 X X 24
APALACHICOLA FL 12 5 1 X 18 GULF 29N 87W 41 2 X X 43
PANAMA CITY FL 14 8 X X 22 GULF 28N 89W 27 3 X X 30
PENSACOLA FL 16 16 X X 32 GULF 28N 91W 2 5 1 X 8
MOBILE AL 11 22 1 X 34

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

[Bridget Burke]

17. The season's starting early this year.

They are projecting Arlene will bring more heavy rain than high wind. But heavy rain can definitely cause problems. And anybody right on the coastline might consider dropping in on some friends & family inland.

[Maddy McCall]

20. Latest advisory has winds up to 60 MPH. (I'll keep this thread updated...

...so everyone can check back here. The images in the first post automatically update, so check there to see the forcast track and a visual image.)


Arlene strengthened by 20 MPH overnight. Again, latest advisory predicts that Arlene could be a minor hurricane when she hits shore, probably between Gulfport and Mobile.

[Baclava]

22. NOAA has new models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/151226F120_sm.gif

[Baclava]

21. Hurricane watch now in effect

000
WTNT31 KNHC 101453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM
...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.

-------------------------------------

Don't forget - still time to get hurricane supplies tax-free till Sunday.

[Maddy McCall]

24. Link:Mississippi Gulf Coastal Cities,Counties Declare State of Emergency.

http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/11864272.htm
Posted on Fri, Jun. 10, 2005

Cities, counties declare a state of emergency, thanks to Arlene

By MELISSA M. SCALLAN


GULFPORT - [e-mail]

Emergency management officials in Harrison County are recommending that people who live in low-lying areas and in mobile homes consider evacuating because of Tropical Storm Arlene.

They also recommend people who have boats in harbors in South Mississippi remove them.

On Friday morning, officials said Arlene likely would make landfall about 7 p.m. Saturday near Ocean Springs.

Most city and county officials were declaring a state of emergency in anticipation of damage from the tropical storm.

Please check the Sun Herald's web site often for updates on Tropical Storm Arlene.

[Maddy McCall]

25. HURRICANE TRACK SHIFTED RIGHT. LOOKING BAD FOR PENSACOLA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105P_sm2+gif/204949P_sm.gif

[Maddy McCall]

26. Another satellite image

[Bunny]

27. Y'all batten down now, hear?

:scared:

[Maddy McCall]

28. I'm inland Mississippi just north of New Orleans, and we are having

pretty strong winds right now. Idon't know if it's associated with the tropical storm, though. Our power just flashed in and out, and the trees are really swaying right now. :scared:

Thanks for the good wishes...I'm sure the guys who are directly on the coast need them much more than I do. I have a cousin in Pensacola--Ivan demolished his house last year, and he's about half-way through rebuilding--I am really worried about him. :cry:

[trof]

29. Not yet! Not yet!

We're not cleaned up from Ivan yet.
jeez
That second "S" in the track is about right over my house.
damn

[Maddy McCall]

30. Are y'all going to ride it out or evacuate?

[trof]

32. We're staying unless it hits Force 3.

I don't think it's gonna go hurricane.

[trof]

34. Pensacola Beach evacuated.

On the news just now.
crap

[Maddy McCall]

37. Yeah, the most eastern MS gulf coast county has been mandatorily evacuated

also. :scared:

[jpak]

36. I'm in Pensacola

and house sitting in Gulf Breeze

and it sucks to be me right now...

[Maddy McCall]

38. Do you know any McCalls down there?

My cousin has a house there, too.

[jpak]

41. Nope - but I'll keep an eye out for 'em

n/t

[Maddy McCall]

42. If you ever go to a NAPA Auto Parts store down there....

then you've met him. He's the manager. :D

[trof]

39. Hi neighbor.

I'm on Wolf Bay in Foley.
Good luck.

[jpak]

40. Thanks

My buddy's house survived Ivan (they stayed - yikes!!! - I didn't and made the right choice) so I'm not too worried about this one.

The only problem will be getting back and forth to my place after the storm...

[Maddy McCall]

43. Arelene is up to 70 MPH. Just 5 mi. shy of Category One .

[BamaGirl]

44. I hate this part of the year.

They are telling us to expect 5-10 inches of rain tomorrow. We've had so much rain the last two weeks that we are already under a flood watch. Some of our family in Pensacola are still homeless from Ivan. I'm sure they are spitting nails about now. :(