TRUE MATH: Obama 393EV (54%) w100% prob EV & PV. But there's a catch: 3-CARD MONTE ELECTION FRAUD:

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: July 15

?click">Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

?click">Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

?click">Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Polls

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

?click">Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

?click">Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

?click">Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

7/15/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 45.53 
 39.03 
 47.20 
 42.00 
54.79
45.21
53.92
46.08
420
118

    

15-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-Poll Mov Avg

 

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Poll MA

Poll

Trend
                      
Gallup
Rasmussen
ABC/WP
CBS/NYT
Quinnipiac

Newsweek
Pew Resrch
CNN
DemCorp
Time

Bloomberg
USA Today
Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen

Date
        
7/14
7/14
7/13
7/14
7/13

7/10
6/29
6/29
6/25
6/25

6/23
6/19
6/19
6/18
6/18

Size
              
2637 RV
3000 LV
--
1796 RV
1725 LV

1037 RV
1574 RV
906 RV
2000 RV
805 RV

1115 RV
1310 LV
896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV

 

Obama
        
47
47
50
45
50

44
48
50
49
47

49
50
51
45
48

McCain
        
43
45
42
39
41

41
40
45
45
43

37
44
36
41
45

Spread
        
4
2
8
6
9

3
8
5
4
4

12
6
15
4
3

 

Obama
        
47.8
47.2
47.4
47.4
48.2

47.6
48.6
49.0
49.2
48.4

48.6
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0

McCain
        
42.0
41.6
40.6
41.2
42.4

42.8
42.0
42.8
41.0
40.2

40.6
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8

 

Obama
        
53.92
53.92
54.60
54.24
53.84

53.36
54.24
53.92
55.08
55.24

55.08
54.32
54.12
53.08
53.12

McCain
        
46.08
46.08
45.40
45.76
46.16

46.64
45.76
46.08
44.92
44.76

44.92
45.68
45.88
46.92
46.88

Diff
        
7.8
7.8
9.2
8.5
7.7

6.7
8.5
7.8
10.2
10.5

10.2
8.6
8.2
6.2
6.2

Win Prob
          
100.00
100.00
na
99.98
99.93

98.48
99.96
99.09
100.00
99.85

99.97
99.91
99.32
96.77
99.97

MoE
          
1.91%
1.79%
na
2.31%
2.36%

3.04%
2.47%
3.26%
2.19%
3.45%

2.93%
2.71%
3.27%
3.27%
1.79%

 

 

FULL ARTICLE: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.

• Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.

That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged Recorded vote. Kerry won the True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.

These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
...
The bottom line is: ...

MORE HERE: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613

[tiptoe]

1. If you like the OP, give it a REC!

[msongs]

2. tell me again what congressional dems have done to ensure honest elections?

at least in california our secretary of state has dumped a bunch of electronic vote fraud systems and our county has gone to paper ballots again.

Msongs
Riverside CA

[tiptoe]

4. ok, i'll tell you again:

Regrettably, efforts by Dems to legislate election reform are being undermined by GOP (hijacked by radical conservatives)

That's great about Riverside going Paper Ballot.

[bleever]

3. K&R

for later study.

Thanks!

[nc4bo]

5. My stomach just turned over. Going to read up some more on this. Thanks. nt