Field Poll: More educated more likely to vote for Cruz over Arnold

[CMT]

Looking over the subgroups and demographics in the Field poll finds some interesting numbers which give me hope that even if Gov. Davis is recalled that a Democrat (Cruz Bustamante) will still be governor.

Overall here are the totals:

Bustamante: 25%
Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 9%
Simon 8%
Ueberroth 5%
Huffington 4%
Camejo 2%
Flynt 1%
Others 5%
None 5%
Undecided 14%

The more education you have the more likely you are to vote for Cruz Bustamante:
High School or less: 28-21 percent for Arnold vs. Cruz
Some College/trade school: 25-23 percent for Arnold over Cruz
College Grad: 26-18 percent Cruz over Arnold
Post Grad: 31-19 percent Cruz over Arnold.

Here is the breakdown among age groups:
18-39: 29-26 Arnold over Cruz
40-49: 28-23 Cruz over Arnold
50-64 25-15 Cruz over Arnold
65-over 24-24 Cruz and Arnold tied.

Ideology:
Conservative:
Arnold: 34%
McClintock: 21%
Simon 18%
Others 8%
Cruz 3%
Undecided 16%

Moderates:
Cruz: 29%
Arnold: 23%
McClintock: 4%
Simon 5%
Others 13%
Undecided 26%

Liberals:
Cruz: 48%
Arnold 6%
Others 32%
Undecided 14%

Whites/non-hispanics 23-22 percent Arnold over Cruz
Latinos: 42-22 percent for Cruz over Arnold
Other racial/ethnic groups 38-14 percent Cruz over Arnold.

Men 23-23 Cruz and Arnold tied
Women 28-22 Cruz over Arnold

LA County--26-22 Cruz over Arnold
Other Southern California 26-19 Arnold over Cruz
San Francisco/Bay Area 35-15 Cruz over Arnold
Other Northern California 25-23 Arnold over Cruz

Some points:
Many Democrats are still undecided and in the end I think they will choose Cruz over Arnold. The conservative/Republican vote is being split 3-ways between Arnold, McLintock, and Simon. I'm encouraged that the older you are the more likely you are to support Cruz since the younger folk are less likely to vote--especially in an off election. I'm somehat disappointed that Cruz is leading among latinos at this time by only 20-points (42-22), but I feel as time goes on Cruz's numbers here will improve.

Overall comes down to getting out the vote on election day.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/

[AP]

1. That's why Republicans want to destroy public schools

with vouchers and by killing funding for public universities.

[w4rma]

8. It sure does appear that way (n/t)

[Cha]

2. I would hope so! Who wants to be governed by "the terminatior"?

And "total recall"?

[sandnsea]

3. What's with the over 65 people?

Why in the world would they choose Arnold? I can't even wrap my head around that.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

4. They are hurting because of high drug costs and other high costs

and cannot differentiate between federal and state impotence.

[NewJerseyDem]

5. One word

alzheimer's

[shimmergal]

9. Hey, that's offensive.

Sorry, but ageism is so prevalent in our society that remarks like this are made all the time.

But I'd hope for better in DU discussions. . .

[CMT]

6. well the two are tied among those 65 and over

give it time--I think they will end up voting for Cruz.

[NewJerseyDem]

14. It is the only reason

I think that anyone with most of their marbles wouldn't even consider voting for Arnold. There is no other reason that I know of.

[meti57b]

7. remember that in a week or so, ahh-nulled's $10million of advertising

that he is paying for himself, will start to run on tv. Democracy at work here. If you're ultra-wealthy you can just purchase the minds of the gullible.

However, this poll is certainly encouraging.

[George_Bonanza]

10. Such an obvious "discovery"

[AntiCoup2K4]

11. If my suspicions are correct....

....and Ah-nold is a BCE puppet candidate, then no doubt there will be deals made with McClintock and Simon to get them to drop out, and if they do not comply, the machine will dig up dirt on them. Issa the car thief probably dropped out early exactly for this reason, since I wouldn't doubt at all if there were even more skeletons in his closet.

This would of course be the BAD side of the possible judicial order to postpone the recall ballot, since the October election gives Rove's team less time to create scandals. Actually, if these poll results are anywhere near accurate, they should find a judge to speed up the election, before the Bush hit squad can solidify Repuke support behind Ah-nold.

[Art_from_Ark]

12. I have read elsewhere on DU that Ahhh-nuld is "liberal"

and yet this Field poll shows that liberals would overwhelmingly reject the terminator.

At any rate, I can't believe this guy is getting serious consideration. It reminds me of a Simpsons episode I just saw where Sideshow Bob was running for mayor-- and he easily defeated the incumbent in a farce of an election-- and an Ahhh-nuld type character was one of Bob's supporters.

[jamesturnsliberal]

13. is there still time to get a new liberal candidate in.

i dont think this guy busamate has a chance..

[CMT]

17. what do you base that on?

and yes it is too late. Despite all the pro-Arnold propaganda Cruz is leading in this poll and doing better with groups which probably will be more likely to turnout--older, more educated. Plus I think Latinos will come out to support him.

[George_Bonanza]

16. In "Sideshow Bob Roberts"

Sideshow Bob was actually the educated and intelligent, albeit violently deranged, candidate, to the illiterate, funds-embezzling, wife-swapping, and general unlikeable scumbag Joe Quimby. I don't think that's the case here.

[burr]

15. Cruz needs to take the initiative to win.

Arnold's favorability rating among Republicans is 66% even though he supposedly holds few of their views on social issues, or has no agenda or public record to speak of. However Cruz is serving his second term as Lt. Governor in California. And yet among Democrats his favorable rating only 60%, despite the fact that he has established a public record and has been elected and re-elected as a state official.

And yet polls show that the Lt. Governor draws his least amount of support among traditional blue collar Democrats who have not had more than a High School education. The nearly even split among these voters shows that Arnold's name recognition has given him a slight advantage among this group, but that this advantage is not overwhelming. However the voters in this group that gave the Lt. Governor a favorable rating probably did so because they are familar with state Democratic politics through organizations like their union or from their peers, not because of any love for Cruz himself.

If Cruz wants to win, he cannot win only with the votes of those with post-secondary education. And to win back some of the traditional blue-collar Democrats, Cruz must do two things. First he must provide them with some new reasons or an agenda to support him over Arnold, and he must go on the attack against Arnold so these voters in both parties will learn who his opponent really is!