An Explanation For The Dean Surge In New Hampshire?

[Doctor Pedantic]

I was pretty shocked to see how far Dean had pulled ahead of Kerry in New Hampshire in just a few weeks. Which makes me wonder....

At the Dean "meet-ups" in early August, volunteers wrote personal letters to NH voters explaining why we support Governor Dean, and soliciting their support. Did this work? Is there reason to believe that there's a link between the letter-writing campaign and the huge lead Dean got over Kerry in August? There wasn't a similar bump of this magnitude when letters were sent to Iowans earlier in the summer, but that was before all the pro-Dean publicity had hit the airwaves.

Any thoughts out there? Anyone from NH who can shed some light on this (particularly if you actually received one of the letters)?

Inquiring minds want to know!

[TSIAS]

1. Honestly, I don't think it's the letters

I think it's an effective tool. I wrote them as well. However, it can't account for the massive bump he's gotten. I attribute it more to Dean advertising more in New Hampshire. I'm very surprised this poll has him up 21 %. I think the race will eventually be much closer than that.

[ProfessorPlum]

2. My four letters

were beautiful, literate works of art, appealing to the recipients' humanity and love of country, which would have convinced even the hardest-hearted to vote for the good doctor with tears in their eyes at the wonderful service they were doing the nation. They would have been powerless not too! :)

[DrFunkenstein]

3. Honestly, I Believe You

Keep slappin' the donkey!

:kick:

[liberalnurse]

4. That is soo sweet.

I had to work and could not get anyone to cover me(nursing supervisor).....It's the first meet-up I missed. I feel so guilty now. I think you made up for my absence. Thank you for your dedication.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. iow:

You hastily scrawled "Support Dean" on 4 napkins and slapped a stamp on them.

[ProfessorPlum]

7. well, it's not like they were USED napkins or anything

they were the nice white cocktail kind.

[damnraddem]

10. No, no, you have it all wrong!

The Dean campaign supplied envelopes to put the napkins into.

[dsc]

5. NH is very hard to poll

Given that the state allows everyone to vote in the primary it is exceedingly difficult to determine just who will show up to vote. Thus different pollsters use somewhat different formula yielding different results. Also the voters do change their minds from time to time about which primary to vote in. I highly doubt this 21 point lead is an accurate measure.

[DJcairo]

11. That analysis is spot on.

The reasons you give plus the fact that Dean has been advertising more than anyone else on TV and radio (Kerry has run no ads) are big factors. State polls are nortorious for their fluctuations. Even from someone like Zogby. Just witness the radically different results from polling in California. It's hard to even get a picture of whos winning. All it does is create unnneccasary buzz for or against a certian candidate depending on which poll you look at and when, speciifally they were taken.
It is almost a given that Kerry will get headlines ina month when "Polls Show race tightening in NH, underdog Kerry fights to gain frontrunner status."

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. "Underdog Kerry?"

You're kidding, right?

[ProfessorPlum]

13. oooowa oooowa oooowa oooowa

[DJcairo]

14. Well he is the underdog now that Dean is being called the frontrunner

[ProfessorPlum]

15. hoo boy

that didn't take long.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. He's got $16M in the can.

He's been in the Seanate for 19 years.

He's pacing himself...sorry......I'm cramping up....

[polpilot]

22. America is where it is today because of Kerry and Kerry-like

representation. Like where we are today then VOTE KERRY.

Dean '04

[ProfessorPlum]

17. You know, Bush just declared himself the underdog today, too

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=536&e=5&u=/ap/20030828/ap_on_el_pr/bush_fund_raising

pretty funny

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. Unbelievable.

Everybody is an underdog around here.


Hilarious.

[ProfessorPlum]

19. oooowa oooowa oooowa oooowa

Ok, gotta stop that now.

[KaraokeKarlton]

8. NH is really angry at Bush

The people of NH tend to be somewhat conservative when it comes to their money, to a fault, in fact. There are a lot of manufacturing jobs where people work a lot of overtime, too. NH has no income tax or sales tax, and they don't want any. They already have pretty high property taxes, though. That's how they already have to fund things, along with lottery ticket sales. The property taxes in NH have skyrocketed already and some schools have already just about run out of the money allotted to them to meet the No Child Left Behind mandates...and school hasn't even started yet. Some of those schools are going to be "failing schools" and will lose even more federal money next year. That's going to mean more property tax increases and for the first time, the state might actually be forced to have new taxes they haven't had to pay. They aren't impressed. They're hearing that Vermont, right next door has a budget surplus thanks to Dean. We aren't facing the same dire times NH is facing. Ultimately, NH cares most about two things...money and guns. As long as they save money and get to hunt and can be convinced a candidate will allow them to keep things how they want them...they will go for whoever best convinces them they can deliver that. Dean's doing that. He's talking about what NH people care about and he's got the A rating from the NRA to ease their mind about their guns. Dean would take NH over Bush easily.

[damnraddem]

9. Of course, that was it. I'm sure what I wrote did it.

Well, I do suspect that others did as I did, looked at the suggested letter, and then wrote what we wanted -- what made us support Dean. A recipient need not agree with the writer to appreciate something written by another person just to them, rather than a computerized form letter.

[morningglory]

20. I have been the only person signed up for meetup since April.

Last month there were 3, but not enough rsvp to hold the meet. This month there are 6, with 2 rsvp so far. I have the handwriting of an escaped maniac. All along, I have thought, Gawd! If they make me write letters, I am going to run people off! Someone posted a great article on a thread the other day regarding the democratic revolution which is the internet. We can't watch the news without profanity and high blood pressure. What is left for us? The internet has been revolutionary for me. I think it is responsible for Dean's surge, plus more people getting to see him on some of the shows.

[polpilot]

21. The U.S. has only one candidate. 38% poll. Very predictable.

Dean '04....

[molly]

23. Quit these silly posts and tell us something about your

candidate - oh - so sorry - I see you are a Dean supporter.

[polpilot]

24. Molly, this is not the dating game. Mature inquiries only.

Dean '04