Bush Leads Gephardt; Dean Strong 2nd with Dems in KOMU's Missouri Poll

[Freddie Stubbs]

In the first Missouri test of the 2004 presidential candidates, a survey commissioned by KOMU and other news organizations shows President Bush with a 10-point lead over St. Louis Congressman Dick Gephardt.

Missourians also overwhelmingly support continued involvement in Iraq, though a plurality says there should be limits to that involvement. Voters also say they'll give nearly equal weight to the economy and homeland security/foreign affairs when deciding how to vote for president next year. That could provide an opportunity for the eventual Democratic nominee.

Meanwhile, a sub-sample of Missouri Democrats shows Howard Dean the clear second choice behind favorite-son Gephardt if the primary were held today.

Researchers at the Missouri Poll also asked voters about a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Kit Bond and Gephardt (assuming Gephardt were to drop out of the presidential race and seek his party's Senate nomination). Under that scenario, Senator Bond would hold a 13-point advantage with more than a year to go before voters actually cast their ballots.

more: http://www.komu.com/html/htmlFall2003/missouripoll091003.html

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Geppy should just drop out.

He has no charisma and is a complete embarrassment to the Democratic Party.

Hawkeye-X

[dolstein]

4. Was that an attempt to court Gephardt's supporters?

If so, I think it failed miserably.

[DrFunkenstein]

10. Does That Make Him A Miserable Failure?

;-)

[BrewCrew]

13. You're Whack!

Hawkeye----I diagree wholeheartedly with that statement. That guy has laid down on the tracks for people like me and brother's union, which has been devastated by this country's ridiculous trade policies. Let me tell you for the last 15 years this country has been trading in 15$ an hour jobs here for $15 a week jobs in Mexico and China. It's created a community of unhappy places. Dick Gephardt has fought to prevent that and he's done it with passion! Oh well. I don't expect you to understand.

The embrassment is the members of Democratic Party who have not stood up for a core constieuency like labor. Quit taking us for granted!

Anyway. If Gephardt loses Iowa he'll drop out, thus not a factor in Mo. So laying a good groundwork in Missouri by the other candidates makes since. The thing is that Joe Trippi is the only campaign manager smart enough to realize that! Props to him. If Gephardt wins Iowa, he'll have so momentum that should be strong enough to carry win to an impressive victory in Iowa.

[Mass_Liberal]

18. what is your union called?

[BrewCrew]

21. UAW

Its the United Auto Workers. Our membership has decreased from over a million active to less than 700,000 since 1990. Its tough. Sorry I didn't state that in the initial response

[CMT]

2. Great news for Dean!!

This is Gep's homestate and he is leading Dean by only 14-points with Dean a solid second and Gep under 40%. If this held up Dean would get some delegates out of Missouri--he doesn't have to win it but a good showing with some solid delegates is what it is all about.

p.s.
The 10-point lead Bush has over Gep in Missouri doesn't worry me. It is early and most people are not focused on the general election. Bush is under 50%. I think Missouri will be quite competitive.

[Rose Siding]

3. Has Dean even been to Missouri yet?

Has he advertised? This is good news.

[CMT]

6. No advertising

I'm not sure he has been there yet--maybe a speech to some organization or something. I know his meetups do good business in the state.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

15. I know he had a conference call with people from St. Louis a few weeks ago

But I am not sure if he has been there yet. He has mentioned the conference call in several speeches, saying the people there told him they don't want John Ashcroft back so he is going back to Crawford, Texas with the president. Except when Dean said that at the YDA convention, some people from Texas yelled out "we don't want him either" so Dean's next solution was to appoint him ambassador to the South Georgia Islands. So if any of you live there, I am sorry to inform you that President Dean will send John Ashcroft there in 2005.

New Dean blog:
http://deangrassroots.blogspot.com

Cool Dean stuff (new products added):
http://www.cafeshops.com/deangrassroots
http://www.cafeshops.com/youhavethepower

[helleborient]

5. Gephardt would make a good Senator...

But the fight against Kit Bond would be an uphill one.

I do see this as good news for Dean and more or less neutral news for Gephardt.

[CMT]

7. poll is encouraging for Gep to run for senate

Bond doesn't have an insurmountable lead.

[helleborient]

8. That is good news!

But isn't Bond still pretty popular there?

I grew up across the river from St. Louis, and it seems like Bond has been around since my early childhood..how old is he??

[jos]

9. Disagree

Someone with Gephardt's name recognition should be doing better against Bond. What this tells me is that Nancy Farmer has her job cut out for her.

Regional breakdown is interesting. Northern Missouri votes like Iowa/Illinois, while Southern Missouri votes like Oklahoma.

[CMT]

14. do you think Farmer

would be a strong nominee than Gep?

[jos]

16. No

Even though she probably has lower negatives than Gephardt. I wouldn't mind seeing Gephardt run for the Senate, assuming he drops out early enough, but I don't think he will.

[w4rma]

23. Gephardt would make an awesome U.S. Senator!

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[DrFunkenstein]

11. Anyone Notice That 40% Had No Opinion Whatsoever?

Just wondering.

[CMT]

12. yes

no opinion--yes, with the exception of Gep many of the candidates have high no opinion marks indicating many people don't know enough about them.

[mndemocrat_29]

17. Gephardt

I don't think that Gephardt will win the nomination in 2004 (at this point, it looks like Dean). Additionally, if the rumors are true, then Dean has already selected his running mate. Therefore, I think that Gephardt should help elect Claire McCaskill and Nancy Farmer as governor and senator, respectively, and work to win Iowa and Missouri for Dean.

However, I think Gephardt's career is far from over. I think that in 2006 he should run against Jim Talent, a candidate he could certainly beat.

[goobergunch]

19. I don't believe this poll

It has * beating Gephardt 45%-43% in St. Louis. Yeah, right.

[mndemocrat_29]

20. In St. Louis?

I don't think so.

[jos]

22. As I recall

St. Louis County is more than just the city. And since 1992, Gephardt had not won his district by overwhelming margins.