What States would Dean capture in '04 that Clark wouldn't?

[Stargleamer]

if Clark was the nominee instead of Dean?

To all you Dean supporters--I can't think of any. In addition, I think Clark would take Arkansas (could Dean?) and being a fellow Southerner and a former member of the military have a better chance in Florida.

Also to Dean supporters: What if Saddam and/or Osama is captured between now and the election? Who could better withstand the bounce that would give Bush--a former member of the military or a vociferous anti-war candidate?

[Racenut20]

1. You left out

Tennessee, New Mexico, and probably Missouri that Clark could carry and Dean wouldn't come close in.

I do digress. I do not think, as I have said before, that Dean can carry the swing states necessary to win.

[chimpymustgo]

2. Got it in a nutshell. We've got to win some southern and midwestern states

Dean can't.

[lastliberalintexas]

4. So happy

to see that you and chimpymustgo can stay oh so positive about our candidates. :eyes:

BTW- I don't particularly care for Clark. Could you tell that by reading my post below? Nope- I gave him props on being able to take some battleground states. Not sure why I try though, since the anti-Dean brigade apparently can't admit that he can tie his own shoes.

[Toucano]

15. Dean can tie his own shoes!

AND...if he's the nominee (I prefer Clark), Howard Dean be the the 44th President of the United States of America.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[CMT]

5. Dean could win New Mexico

and Arizona as a matter of fact he is leading in both states according to recent polls.

[Vikingking66]

27. um....

they love him in Tennessee and NM.
Check the state polling from PollingReport.com

[lastliberalintexas]

3. Dean, Clark and possibly Edwards

could potentially take a few Southern states away from the repubs. Louisiana is more than likely going Dem in 2004 (a good Senate election in 2002 and good statewide results in 2003). Also, Gore's loss margin was not that big in Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia and New Hampshire. I think they, and possibly Kerry, could take these states with good campaigns.

While I think most of our candidates can pick up states that Shrub won in 2000, I think that these 3 are the most likely to pick up these states because of their gun control stances (esp Dean and Clark). NOPE- I am not saying that the gun issue ALONE can pick up votes, just that it could be more neutralized with those 3. The Southern economy stinks, and a good campaign can really make inroads next year.

And sorry Clark supporters- his and Dean's gun control positions are extremely similar, so please don't start in with the pro-NRA crap.

[CMT]

6. recent polls indicate

that Dean is doing about as well as Clark against Bush. For instance Zogby has Dean losing to Bush by 8-points 47-39 while Clark is losing by 9-points 46-37.

Dean will do well in the West, he is leading in primary states of New Mexico and Arizona and I think he could win those states vs. Bush along with Nevada and possibly Colorado. Dean will win California, Oregon and has a big following in Washington.

In the south I think that Dean could pick up West Virginia and yes, I think he could win Louisiana, Florida (esp. with Graham as his running mate) and even Arkansas.

[Stargleamer]

17. Arizona??? Florida??? Arkansas??????

Well, Dean supporters aren't suffering from any lack of optimism! ;-)
Next thing I know they'll be telling me that Dean can take Texas and Utah as well.

[Epoch]

7. Dean/Clark

Just a question, If Dean chooses Clark as a running mate (and I'm only looking at it from this direction, not Clark/Dean in this question), do you think the independants and swing voters who like Clark more than Bush will still jump on with the "liberal, yadda yadda yadda Dean"? Or does the VP slot not matter if Dean is the candidate since he is such a left wing looney (added sarcasm)?

Just a question.

Epoch

[Toucano]

16. Clark helps the ticket wherever he is.

I don't think Dean will pick a candidate from the current contenders though.

[poskonig]

8. If Clark runs a meek campaign, Dean gets more states.

We know Dean isn't going to take it up the ass when the Rove smear machine comes around.

But Clark? I fear he is too conciliatory and may get "Gored" pretty bad when the trash politics begins next summer.

[boxster]

11. I think he's saving his fire for Bush,

which isn't such a bad idea. One of the biggest criticisms of Democrats by Democrats is lack of party unity. In fact, the Repubs are bashing on that now and will continue to do so through the primaries.

If Clark can manage to win the nomination without adamantly attacking the other candidates, I think that's a positive and not a negative. Save the negative politics for the general election.

[kang]

9. Does anybody have the polling data on this?

How does Dean fair in the South and with minority voters? My concern w/Dean is that he wouldn't be able to seriously contest in the South without having to spend considerable resources, while Bush could focus on California (photo ops and a few favors for Schwartzenegger) and midwestern swing states. Clark on the other hand (or perhaps Edwards) could really make a move for Southern states and force Bush to spend resources defending his own "red" states. And I think Clark's added four "star" power would play over well in California if he can establish his solid liberal policies (which is doing during these next few weeks).

Note: Bush really screwed up his relationship w/Mexico and Pres. Fox. The Dem nominee needs to pounce on this issue as part of their foreign policy platform in order to show voters in states like New Mexico, Arizona, California, etc. that their concerns are not forgotten. Mexico is at a crucial moment for their gov't and reform movements,not to mention they are essential in any effort to combat drug traffiking.

[gully]

10. Oh....

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2003/10/20/22207/050/1#1

[ScreamingMeemie]

12. Dean is doing extremely well in Michigan right now. While

Clark is still pretty much unknown, or in my father's opinion, an irritant.

[mikehiggins]

24. New Poll

My wife says Clark is sincere. My mother-in-law says he looks like a President. Two less political people you'd be hard to find.

Americans have elected Presidents for reasons like that more often than any of us would like to admit.

[nocreativename]

13. Washington

Washington is Dean Country, it the only state that I could really speak to.

[dsc]

14. I think Dean can win

Ohio given the right circumstanced and that Clark would have an immensly harder time doing that. New Hampshire is one Dean is much better positioned to win. Also Dean may well do better in much of the industrialized midwest and the west coast, though admittedly Gore won most of that and therefore Clark should to. Dean would just win it bigger I think.

[demrebel]

18. Dean

I am on for my first time. I do not understand and maybe someone can help me but Dean seems to stand for what our party is about and would give the opportunity for us to have a choice. Clark is another bush. I think if we get dean, we do not get nader running. If we get a conservative military man on top, we get Nader and others running and we win nothing. Give america a choice between a real liberal and a compassion conservative.

Help me understand? This party has been against the clark types since Viet Nam.

[RandomUser]

19. Your confusion is understandable

I think you might be laboring under a misunderstanding. Clark is not the same as Bush. Clark is not a conservative military man. As a matter of fact, on many issues, Clark is even more liberal than Dean.

[demrebel]

20. I can see a debate with bush and the general

Bush would say something and clark would praise him

Dean would give a liberal answer.

He is too old looking. We need to get rid of all our old people and get fresh ideas and young people like the days of JFK. Out with the old Hillary, Gore, Mondale.

We are falling into the same stupid things the repubs did with Dole a real has been.

Think young and smart. Also no lawyers and that is what is great about Dean.

[RandomUser]

22. Have you answered the question?

You've come into a thread, and you've yet to address the question of the the thread. What states will Dean get that Clark won't?

Second, if you believe Clark will go into a debate and praise Bush without then attacking Bush, you're making no sense. Do you believe than any of the current 9 candidates will actually go into a debate and roll over for Bush?

Third, you don't like old people? I actually want the senior citizens to vote for Clark.

Think young and smart? So Dean is the youngest of the crowd? And no lawyers? Just to piss off the Edwards people?

Sigh. My previous response was polite because you are new to this board, and I wanted to encourage you to examine the candidates more and correct your misunderstandings (such as saying that Dean is more liberal than Clark). I take it you missed the Bill Maher episode where Dean said he wasn't a liberal, and Clark said he was? Or I take it you haven't examined the respective positions of each candidate and identified the issues on which Clark is more liberal then Dean?

If anything, Clark presents a hopeful vision more akin to JFK.

Please come back when you have some substance to your arguments. I encourage you to examine all the candidates, not just Clark and Dean. And please don't just reflexively say they're all old and Dean is the hip new young revolutionary. By doing that, you're ignoring the various positions of each candidate, and that's not worthy of logical discourse.

[OKNancy]

23. If you want the youngest - vote Sharpton

Sharpton is the youngest - if that is your criteria.

[jeter]

21. These types of posts are so unhelpful

And they won't change anyones minds.

I think Clark is a better candidate. But make this an election about ideas. Not challenging ones credentials as a Democrat and not my candidate will do better than your candidate.

[democratreformed]

25. I second that!!

:)

[9119495]

26. Probably not many

and Dean will win anyway. Remember that VPs can be attractive and I think Dean WILL choose from on of the current candidates. The goal for these guys after the nomination will be party unification. If Dean doesn't win, his money and grassroots will he essential--thus almost assured the VP (in my opinion).

If Dean does win the nomination, a strong on security, military-type will be chosen.

Remember that the elecotral votes of Gore plus ANY state means a victory for democrats.

[tsipple]

28. States Dean Would Capture That Clark Wouldn't

First of all, we have to assume a close election. If it's not a close election, it won't matter.

Here are my top three picks:

Oregon - defections of Greens to Ralph Nader would hit Clark hard here. Dean would be more likely to keep it in the D column.

Wisconsin - tougher for Clark, same reason. (Gore carried Wisconsin just barely in 1992.)

Washington - same as Oregon, although a bit less so.

All three are fairly electoral-rich states, by the way.

[tsipple]

36. Re: Wisconsin and Gore

I meant 2000, of course. Sorry for the typo.

I'm also going to add two more states to the list for Nader reasons: New Mexico and Florida. Both were razor close for Gore in 2000. I believe Dean holds Nader voters in the D column better than Clark, and that's a few more votes than Clark would get in those states.

I should also say that I'm not counting on Florida in 2004 in my electoral math. Democrats should compete for it but they shouldn't count on it, regardless of nominee.

Dean may be a bit stronger in Iowa as well, and that was a close state for Gore. Not so much for the Nader reason but mainly because Iowa has a bit of a pacifist bent. I'm a little skeptical that they'd vote for a former Army general in quite the numbers. It'd be a very, very tiny difference, but it was a close state in 2000.

[demrebel]

29. Dean is not a clone of bush like Clark is

Face it. The clintons are behind blocking dean. He is gaining too much power with the internet. Dean needs to pull a Bill Clinton and like he attack Jesse Jackson, Dean should tell Bill that he is retired and go off with Monica somewhere.

I think the country would be real excited with a bush vrs dean. Boring bush vrs clark. It is looking in a mirror for Bush.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. Excuse me when was Bush given 4 stars?

and I must have missed the Rhodes Scholarship on the Bush resume too!
Clark might just win 49 states against president clueless.

[demrebel]

31. He should run as a repub not a dem

We need to stand for what we believe.

Why do we need a bush clone when we have dean. The people like dean. He is smart, not a lawyer, he is reaching out to the young people.

So many young people in ca. that I talk to hate our party for raising their car licences and it was done with an old guy at top we put there. We need young blook and ideas and no lawyers or military pro war guys.

Your masters the clintons are shock at how the people love Dean and they are trying to stop him for Hillary who has never done a thing but make money and raise money. Failure in any leadership role.

God Dean.

[mot78]

33. T-minus 10 minutes 'till tombstone

9, 8, 7, 6...

[mot78]

32. FREEPER ALERT!

Why would ANY DUer advance this ubiquitous rw talking point? The Clintons are NOT against Dean. There won't be a Hillary '04/'08!

[RandomUser]

34. Please see #22 N/T

no text

[mot78]

35. "You are so banished"

-Ned Flanders