Poll in Kansas Shows Bush Support Mixed

[beyurslf]

<http://www.kansas.com/mld/eagle/7161268.htm>

More than 3 in 5 Kansans rated President George Bush as fair or poor in his handling of the economy and health care, according to a new poll.

Mike McDonnell can tell you why. It's the layoffs and the rising cost of health care, said the 60-year-old Wichitan, who voted for Bush but now rates his performance as fair to poor on the economy, health care and taxes.

The retired state conservation officer also questions whether U.S. forces should be in Iraq.

"It's getting to be another Vietnam. I don't know why we went in there, either," said McDonnell, who served two stints in Vietnam in the 1960s.

Still, many were strong in their support for Bush, giving him the highest marks in all categories.

ECONOMY
Only 25 percent of those polled said they were better off financially now than they were two years ago.

Forty-one percent said they were worse off financially, and a third said they were about the same.

KS has nearly 50% Repub voters and Bush won it with over 58% in 2000. While I wouldn't say Bush should worry here, if his support is slipping in a state with almost 50% Repub, what does that mean for other states?

[jiacinto]

1. Bush will win KS next year

However, it is a worry for him to have problems in such a heavily Republican state. But, by November of 2004, I fully expect KS to be solidly in his column. If KS is even remotely competetive next year then Bush is in big trouble.

[LuminousX]

2. Kansas will go to Bush, but Bush will have to spend money in Kansas

That is what our grassroots need to do. Make each and every state competitive in some fashion. Our chosen candidate will not be able to afford to spend in every state and will have to triage which states are valuable and which states are longshots. We can help the candidate through grassroots action.

This is why the chosen candidate needs to be they type of person who inspires people to take action. We'll need an army of people in each state to be at each county fair, every block party, every public function to make sure our candidate's views are being heard.

Our goal should be to force Bush to have to buy ad time in Texas.

[jiacinto]

4. Yeah

But KS has not voted Dem since 1964. The odds of winning that state are low.

And even if Bush has to buy TV ad time in TX he will have more than enough money to do it with.

[LuminousX]

10. Better to take $10,000 from him in Texas

than allow him to spend taht $10,000 in Pennsylvania.

[jiacinto]

14. Yeah

but he will have more than enough money to do both.

[MuseRider]

3. Being here

I think that Bush* can be beaten. Whoever our candidate is needs to come here at least once and make some quick trips around. People here would appreciate it and it could tip the balance if they think someone actually is concerned and has good, solid policies to turn things around. There are lots of former Bush* supporters here who would be happy to vote for a Democrat if they feel that the candidate supports them. Otherwise they will probably hold their nose and vote Bush*.

[LittleApple81]

11. I would be so happy if that were true! But seeing is believing. n/t

[yellowcanine]

5. Farm vote may be up for grabs

Kansas is a big farm state and the farm vote has been fairly solidly Republican in recent elections. However, 2004 may well be different. At the very least, turnout may be depressed in the farm states because of discouragement over Bush farm policy. One of the things that sticks in the craw of farmers is Bush's pandering to the exile Cuban vote on the Cuban embargo - farmers see Cuba as an important market which we are losing to our farm commodity competitors. Farmers aren't impressed with GDP growth rates - or even unemployment statistics - they are concerned about whether they are getting a fair return for their efforts - and right now they don't think they are. Low farm profits also impact the rest of the economy in farm states so the disgruntlement with Bush farm and trade policy is magnified. I don't see Bush losing the farm vote any more than I see him losing the military vote. But just the fact that the question is coming up in places like Kansas tells me that Bush is in trouble right now. A lot can happen in a year though - both good for Bush and bad for Bush. Unfortunately for Bush, time is not on his side. Already it appears that the economy cannot add enough jobs for Bush not to be saddled with the highest number of lost jobs on his watch since Herbert Hoover - and we know what happened to him without an unpopular war dragging him down as well.

[MuseRider]

7. See my post above.

Farmers are hurting and angry. I am not a farmer, I hobby farm/ranch but I am out amongst them now and then and they are not happy. If our candidate comes out and gives them a plan to return the rural economy into something that actually helps them, gets the Agribusiness to quit screwing with their seed crops (and everything else) then they will vote for them. At this point I see it as the perfect opportunity, things are about as bad as they can be before everyone starts to lose their farms. A change is needed, they know it, they feel it and I think they just might be willing to deliver it IF they are taken seriously and that means more than a policy they can read, they need to be taken seriously enough to have a visit by our candidate. All rural states are in this shape and a quick stop and go could make the difference. These people do vote, especially if they see they will be helped by it.

[jiacinto]

9. I don't see KS coming into play

With 6 electoral votes, and given its 40 year streak supporting Republicans, I think there are more compelling options. Now, if you all can make it competetive and have decent poll numbers, then money will follow. However, I don't see Kansas being anything but dark red next year.

[MuseRider]

13. You are probably right, however

you have to take into consideration the vast difference between urban voters and rural voters. Like I said, a quick pass through here would make a world of difference. Without trying to oversimplify let me just say, think Little House on The Prairie, folks like that. What will make them change their minds? I live here and I can tell you, it is the time to make some inroads. Maybe not enough to turn the state blue this time but enough to help turn the tide eventually. Like I said before, I have heard enough to make me think we might be able to pull it off.

[jiacinto]

15. Then try it

But don't expect the national party or the presidential candidate to come unless it looks even remotely possible.

[MuseRider]

17. We are trying, I try

everytime I get a chance to talk to people. It will never BE a possibility if they do not come. Well, maybe it would but these are people who feel terribly left out of the process. If you have never been a part of that community it would be difficult to understand. I tend to think that we in these areas are quite important, we feed everyone else so it is quite insulting to be told not to expect them to come here. Even though we do not have a lot of electoral votes we are still part of the process. THAT is the point I was trying to make. Keep leaving these folks out and they will probably continue to vote Republican because everything the Repubs say about the "elitist" Democrats rings true if they do not even bother to come.

[jiacinto]

18. I understand

But money is limited. And the odds of carrying KS are slim. If the local folks can work it hard, and make it competetive, then I am sure that money and support will follow.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. In 2000: 58.03% Bush / 37.25% Gore

Assuming that 2004 is a two-way race with a few ideological candidates and a Democrat who is moderate who will campaign there,
the vote could be something like: Democrat 45% / 54% Bush! We would not win but it would not be a blowout like the past elections!

It's possible!

[MuseRider]

8. I do not even think

our candidate needs to be a moderate. You would be surprised at how liberal some of the Republican voters here actually are. It continues to surprise me. Ask them why they vote like they do and their answer really does not always make sense. The response is often to get the goverment off their backs. The new enemy is Agribusiness. Who supports that?

[dofus]

12. The eastern part of Kansas,

next door to Kansas City, Missouri, is becoming more liberal all the time. Many of the people who live there are from other parts of the country, and for all the conservative Christians who live in this part of the state, the third district which this is, have now twice elected a Democratic Congressman, Dennis Moore. In reality, Moore would be a moderate Republican in many other states, but the D after his name means a great deal.

All that said, I don't have a lot of hope for this state going for the Democratic nominee, and given the absurdity of the electoral college system, I'm not sure I will bother to vote the presidential column of the ballot next November.

[jiacinto]

16. yeah

I mean, also the counties in the SE part of the state, that border Oklahoma, are somewhat competetive.

But I see Bush prevailing in KS.

[beyurslf]

19. I live in KS

and Bush will definelty win here. I wanted to point out that even in KS, people are having reservations. This can't bode well in more competitive states.

Yes, the 3rd district has twice elected a D with Dennis Moore. But they were VERY close races and he is the only D in our congress. By comparison, in the 4th district, Tiahrt (a Gingrinch clone) won by a landslide. The 3rd district includes Wichita, the largest city in the state. The 3rd District is Kansas City, KS and its suburbs. The other two districts are solidly Repub. I am not even sure we had challengers in them last time.

On a positive note, we did elect a D for Gov last time (and a woman at that--our second D woman Gov!)

[burr]

20. Kansas is part of a new national trend...

As the south becomes more and more out of reach for Democratic candidates, hard hit rural states like Kansas and the Dakotas must become part of a growing Democratic base. Democrats must also find ways of remaining competitive in Minnesota and Iowa. We most avoid throwing away scarce party resources in states moving toward the Repukes politically.