Any plan for a "No-Growth" Scenario? Bueller?

[eilen]

"To me, one of the most surreal phenomena one encounters these days is that no country, no established economic research institute (that I'm aware of), and no international organization (such as the IMF) publicly discusses scenarios that don't plan for a return to stable economic (GDP) growth. Even Greece's government, after 2012, expects growth, which would allow the country to slowly reduce its monster debt load. Similarly, the U.S. government forecasts annual average (real) growth rates of 4.4% for the years 2012-2014, and 2.4% thereafter until 2020. This theme is globally ubiquitous. (ADDENDUM: Today Lloyds of London said global institutions are underestimating impacts of peak oil).

.....

Consequences of "no growth" are quite unpleasant

Our current world is about as prepared for "no growth" as is a fish to walk on land. All our current claims systems, the credit outstanding, including government debt, our pension expectations, our savings, our hopes and dreams, are mostly focused on a "there will be more tomorrow" mentality. Should this "more" disappear as a possibility, we will likely not just see small implications, but rather a disruptive destruction of both perceived wealth and security, accompanied by the shattering of hopes and dreams, the perception alone which might cause further trouble in our highly complex societies. Choosing to go forward to a world with different aspirations than growth might have some unexpected positive surprises. But one could argue the worst will happen if we run into such a world completely unprepared. This is why we urgently need policymakers to face the risk of "no-growth," to understand possible implications and to work on transition approaches.

Why not use upcoming elections to ask a few questions?

So with elections coming up in a number of places, particularly for mid-term this fall, why not ask some questions to those people who want our vote? Why not at least instill awareness, concern and caution into the candidates who wish to represent us in the future? Why not have them ask themselves how they'd deal with a situation where they can no longer promise "more" to their constituents, but instead have to think about how to make "less" more appealing to everyone...?

Dear candidate - have you ever... ?"

http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/121325-dear-candidate-what-will-you

[DJ13]

1. In this cheap labor environment we'll never get growth without a return to tariffs

Without a mechanism to remove the attractiveness to our corporations of ever cheaper labor and restore labor cost stability its just not possible.

[Crazy Dave]

9. As soon as everyone in America makes $8 an hour...

...all the jobs overseas will come back home ;-)

[VAliberal]

2. increasing production, increasing consumption

could not continue forever - especially on a global, multinational scale. Excellent article!

[jwirr]

3. We talk a lot about sustainability but we do not seem to have any

concept of living the lifestyle. There has got to be a way to live from day to day so that we produce just enough to supply the real needs of our communities/world. For thousands of years this was the reality of most of the world.

[Hydra]

6. That's because Capitalism can't function in a sustainable system

Try it- no growth = death.

We need a different system to do sustainability, and no one wants to do it, because they feel they have too much to lose.

When people are more afraid of change than death, I have to wonder how great they really think what they have is.

[jwirr]

7. I think you are right - more afraid of change than death. Think about

what that would have meant if the people on the Mayflower had felt that way. None of our ancestors would have come to this country at all - the only ones to benefit from that would have been Native Americans. Fear is ruling our world.

[jtuck004]

8. This is an important point.

You put your money in a box, it loses value. You put it in a hole in the ground, it loses value.

We are living in a model that demands growth, or it withers.

Yet we have worked ourselves into a box by reaping short-term gains from the long-term work of others, and
now we have a big price to pay, regardless of the direction we take as a country. Long slow death or
a loss of a lot of what we thought living was about. And those are sure and certain, not optional.

The only question is will we learn and prosper from that? I would like to think so, but I don't know anymore...

[Murray_R]

10. what model?

"You put your money in a box, it loses value. You put it in a hole in the ground, it loses value.
We are living in a model that demands growth, or it withers."

Because we live in a 'model' of constant inflation, fostered fractional reserve banking, which is debt pyramided on Federal government debt. As that explodes the money in your box goes down in value.

The source of inflation in our economy isn't capitalism. The inflation distorts the price system and induces errors in capitalism by confusing entrepreneurs, savers, and consumers as to the true relative value of goods and services.

[jtuck004]

11. True enough, though I am not sure what you were addressing. The short

term gain I was referring to is that of the capitalists moving work out of the country, and not re-investing in the people and machines for the 21st century. The world (technology, education, etc) is going to get more complex, and grow. Becausethe capitalists in this country, regardless of the smokescreen provided by debt, the Fed, etc, has moved the engines of growth away, it is very likely that we must face a future in which we are smaller. Didn't have to, but that's what's coming. The only choices are whether we will use that to build ourselves up, or just wither.

[customerserviceguy]

4. The alternative to "no growth" is greater efficiency

And that has its human and social costs, as well. But it's the way we're heading, regardless of whether there is growth or not.

I feel that growth will continue. It's easy to say that you want no growth when you live a First World lifestyle, and already have plenty. It's the people of China and India who are trying to get a piece of the good life we've lived with in the US and Western Europe for decades who are going to produce the future growth, no matter what we do.

[zeemike]

5. And when that growth becomes malignant we call it cancer.

And our economy has a lot of growth that is malignant.
And it becomes malignant when it becomes and industry that is self perpetuating and is to big to let fail.
For instance we have a home building industry....and it employs a lot of people, and many other industries are dependant on there always being more houses built...and bigger houses too....and then you get to the point that they are disposable items...every few years you buy a new house that is bigger than the last one....and this consumption of resources cannot ever stop and must always grow every year....untill we die?

[tama]

12. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrowth

Capitalistic liberalism is allready dead, Let's just accept that and adapt and live better free of that particular addiction. Transition movement does not happen top down from the bosses at top of hierarchies and pyramid frauds. It's horizontal and organic growth of another world, happening in each of us, common, caring and loving people. In all of us together, plants, mushrooms and other animals etc. included.

And from what I know, the transition movement is not something we need to "do" and "impose" by much effort, it is happening by itself and all we need to do stay open to change and go along the current.