Track Update On Frances - Potential US Landfall By Saturday PM

[hatrack]

Big if, though, given the vagaries of hurricanes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/300858W5.gif

Latest update from 8AM AST Monday:

HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND
ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

1. 2:00 PM AST 8/30 Update - Tracking West, 190 Miles NE Of Leewards

Strengthening expected in next 24 hours - NOAA aircraft investigating this afternoon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/301746.shtml?

[hatrack]

2. 8/31 2:00 PM Update - 140 M. NE San Juan, Heading W, 140 MPH Max Winds

EDIT

...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES...WITH 140 MPH WINDS...MOVING
WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND
RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR
SHOWS RAINBANS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRANCES TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE
ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/311757.shtml?

3-day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W+GIF/311628W.gif

5-day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/311628W5.gif

[hatrack]

3. Track seems to be sliding south - was Savannah, now Jax looks likely

5:00 AST 8/31 - 140 N of San Juan, PR - Maximum sustained about 140, higher gusts. Pressure dropping, now below 940 mb, track speeding up slightly to the west at about 17 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/312044.shtml?

[NNadir]

4. I was watching the Weather Channel, seems like August 2004 holds the

record for August Hurricanes...

...outdoing August of 2002.

Two of August's California have been category 4 and the first Hurricane of this season, Alex, was the first hurricane that powerful to be recorded above 38 degrees latitude (at Category 3 that far North).

Two years ago the World Meterological Organization issued an unprecedented warning about increasing climatic instability not someday but NOW.

I expect the usual blithe balderdash from the media on this topic, but there are persons responsible for this matter, human beings. These are not "Acts of God."

[phantom power]

5. there was also that unprecedented hurricane in the southern hemisphere

Not only was it unusual for being south of the equator, but it didn't start out as a hurricane. It began with a cool center, and then turned into a hurricane, with the warm rising center, just by sitting over unusually warm ocean water.

Apparently, nobody had ever seen anything like it.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Not unprecedented any more

I think we had an extratropical hurricane in the Atlantic just last year -- maybe 2002. I'll keep my eyes open for information on extratropical cyclonic storms.

Polar cyclonic storms have also been observed a few times since the late 1980s. They are smaller and weaker than hurricanes, but it's still frightening to think they can now be formed and sustained so far north.

--bkl

[jpak]

13. I've been in hurricane force (60-70 knot) polar storms

in the Kane Basin (Ellesmere Island/Greenland) and near Palmer Station Antarctica.

Both were near death experiences.

In the Arctic storm, we had 20-30 foot swell coming through 3-6 foot pack ice and the ship nearly capsized.

In the Antarctic storm, we got caught in 60 knot winds 3 miles from the station in a 12 foot zodiac.

The pack ice and bergs blocked our way back. By absolute dumb luck we found a narrow passage to a nearby island and made it back 2 hours later.

Barometric pressure dropped like a rock.

The pen on the station barometer popped off the bottom of the recording drum - the lowest reliable reading was 928 millibars.

In OAE parlance we got ourselves into a "sucker hole" AKA "the calm before the storm".

I've been in several tropical hurricanes as well and they were all terrifying miserable experiences.

I sincerely hope that this storm spares us.

[Dogmudgeon]

15. What took you to the poles?

Are/Were you an oceanologist? In the Navy? They are some very cool (no pun intended) stories, but I'm sure at the time they sucked like a tongue on subzero metal. And my five-year-old nephew in Orlando is utterly terrified of Francis, ever since Charley roared through.

What you described sounds like a polar cyclonic storm, but I'd need the date and approximate time and location you ran into it -- and the ability to find the appropriate maps in the bewilderingly-huge NOAA and NWS databases! 928 mB is slightly lower than where Francis is right now. If the storm was being fueled by a massive downdraft, the actual pressure might have been much lower. Do you recall getting an earache, farting and belching, or joint pains?

Such storms were the inspiration for the superstorms in The Day After Tomorrow. Actual polar cyclones are, of course, a lot smaller, but still dramatic. In one such storm, I believe the air temperature fell from 60F to 0F in the course of 15 minutes or so. If accompanied by high winds (>60 kt) and quick-freezing rain and/or driving snow, it is entirely possible that a mammoth -- like the Berezovka find -- could be killed in a matter of minutes and become frozen solid within a day or so. A human in shirt-sleeves might have all of 30 seconds before unconsciousness. It would be helpful is some kind of proxy could be found by which atmospheric pressure changes could be tracked -- but that's somebody else's future PhD thesis, not mine.

Meteorologists of my acquaintance are cautious, conservative, and rigorously thorough folk. I wonder what they've been seeing that they've been keeping close to their chests?

--bkl

[jpak]

16. Research

Spent 4 months in the North Water Polynya aboard a Canadian Coast Guard ice breaker.

http://www.fsg.ulaval.ca/giroq/now/gallery.htm

Also did three 45-day cruises to the Antarctic Peninsula and spent 5 months at Palmer Station.

http://www.genex2.dri.edu/gallery/palmerth/

Had an aborted cruise to the Ross Sea last year (ship broke down in the ice just below the Antarctic Circle).

http://www.polar.org/antsun/Sun111603/aroundTheContinent.htm

(scroll down)

Going back this December and again in 2005.

Hopefully will return without any more sea stories...

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hatrack]

6. 11 PM AST - 8/31 - Frances Still Cat 4, Track Slowly Sliding South

It's now starting to look more like Miami or just north of there, with about two days likely to go before landfall.

Pressure steady at 939 and max. sustained still around 140.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/010245.shtml?

[hatrack]

7. 9/1 8:00 AST - Tracking W/NW, Category 4 Storm, Pressure Down Slightly

Maximum sustained winds 140, central pressure down to 937. The projected track continues to inch south towards Miami.

Keep a weather eye out, y'all!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/011139.shtml?

[jmcgowanjm]

8. I'm going w/ West Palm to Vero Beach-Cat 5

We'll know by this Evening.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604P+GIF/011008P.gif

Expect 1500 deaths, alot of migrant workers , Belle Glade
area.

What does a hurricane and a redneck divorce have in common?
Someone's gonna lose a trailer.

[hatrack]

9. 9/1 11:00 AM AST Update - Moving WNW At 16 MPH, Still Category Four

EDIT

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 735 MILES...1180 KM...EAST
-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57
KM/HR EARLIER TODAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
EARLIER TODAY WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES."

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/011139.shtml?

[Dogmudgeon]

11. Pressure still a little high, but moving into warmer water

Here's a chart of the temperature anomalies from Unisys -- the water in that area is almost a degree above average. The number under the H and over Puerto Rico was "0.953" when I posted it at about 2:45 PM EDT on September 1st.

For the uninitiated, an "anomaly" in this sense is a deviation from the statistical norm.


Note: this chart may update.

The last pressure I've seen was 935 mB, still a little high for a Cat-5 hurricane to form (though there have been many exceptions). But as the pressure dips, the chances increase. A pressure drop to below 900 would send me packing.

Climate change worriers, please note the polar temperature anomalies. This has become a steady thing in recent years. And the chart cuts off at 75N latitude. Also note the cool west Pacific and Indian oceans. The monsoons are late this year, and there is a worry that they may fail altogether. There is also a significant cold-water anomaly at about 45N-25W off the coast of Iberia. Can any of our DUers in Europe relate this to the abnormally cold weather and gales?

--bkl

[hatrack]

12. Lowest ever recorded was (I believe) 890 in Gilbert, 1988

I'd be fleeing long before anything got that low.

On an unrelated note, is it just me or is that one hell of an anomaly up in the Chuckchi Sea, as in 5F or more?

[Dogmudgeon]

14. I count six major northern mid-latitude anomalies

Two Atlantic, four Pacific. The anomaly at ~50N-180W looks to be about -3.30C. There is another figure being obscured, but I think it's a trough marker.

I suspect this is all part of the signature of the emerging El Niño. Anomalies like these are fairly common, but they seem to be getting more "durable", especially the Arctic ones.

As to Gilbert, I just saw it on a map of a history of Major Hurricanes, and the low pressure figure was easy to remember: 888 mB.

--bkl

[jmcgowanjm]

19. way cooll graph, a bow to u, BareKnuckledLiberal

The most perfect engine ever devised



Still think Francis will make Cat 5
Vero Beach will be farthest north.

Of course, I've been wrong before.
James

Most important, climate change has begun to make more
real the dream of opening a northwest passage that
would shorten ship travel between Europe and Asia
by thousands of miles, over the decades to come.
Canadian policy makers want to reserve the right to regulate
and tax such a passage.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/international/americas/29canada.html?8br

[hatrack]

17. 9/1 5:00 PM AST Update - Florida Watch Likely By Tonight - Still Cat. 4

Turks & Caicos getting hit now. Maximum sustained around 140, storm surge of 10-15 feet expected, central pressure at 938 millibars.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/011139.shtml?

[jpak]

20. 11 PM EDT (9/1) update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020225.shtml

<snip>

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER
NEAR AND WITHIN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN IN 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ALSO...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT FRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...WHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

<end snip>

I gotta bad feeling about this one...

[jmcgowanjm]

21. Watch it's "Tail"

You can see it extending toward the South.
Before this is over it could be pulling in vapor from as far
away as Panama.

Awesome
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[jmcgowanjm]

22. Missed the Cat5 strength but ...

Frances is tracking more to the West.

Lake Okechobee could become Okechobee Bay before this
is over.
Belle Glade's history.

The Kissimmee River/Everglades restoration folks
are getting their wish. It's happeneing now.

We have no idea what's going on the other
side of the intracoastal waterway.

See that yachts disappeared from the Palm Beach
yacht club. How do you lose a yacht.

This babies bad and the public's not
getting it, yet.

[Boomer]

23. Tell us more, please

>> The Kissimmee River/Everglades restoration folks
are getting their wish. It's happeneing now.<<

What's up with that? I'm not familiar with the area or the restoration efforts.

[jmcgowanjm]

25. Corps of Engineers-We'll straighten it or dam it

Like Eastern Arkansas, Florida's interior was a river
of grass (AR was bottomland hardwood, Memphis was the
hardwood capital of the world in the 20's, and wetlands).

Both were drained. And have to be continually drained.

The Kissimmee was dredged straightened. This ruined the
ecosystem, much like the channeled MS River
has ruined the Delta and created a firehose effect into the Gulf.

15 inches of rain should overwhelm the drainage system
in the Kissimmee R and Okechobee system.

I'll post more on this when I get time.

I love hydrology.

[jmcgowanjm]

27. 3 views on the River of Grass

http://www.dredge.com/casestudies/undredgingkissimmee.htm

http://www.americanparknetwork.com/parkinfo/ev/history/msd.html

http://www.history.ufl.edu/oral/EVG9.html

[hatrack]

24. Maybe not quite, but the flooding is going to be pretty damn bad!

This really reminds me of Floyd back in 1999. Huge, slow-moving storm which got to North Carolina and just plain sat there. Eastern North Carolina was basically underwater for about a week, tens of thousands of people lost their homes, and the environmental results from ruptured hog waste lagoons were absolutely appalling.

And then there's Ivan:

EDIT

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.4 N... 47.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052036.shtml?

[NNadir]

26. I remember Floyd here in New Jersey.

My neighbors have a small creek; usually a few centimeters deep when we've had rain; though sometimes it goes dry in summer. I watched it from the window in my living room and after a time it was more a raging torrent between two and three meters deep. (My neighbors were lucky that their house was on a significant hill. It was very impressive.