What are the forecasts for Winter 2005?

[smirkymonkey]

Will it be milder than usual due to global warming, or will the converse be true? I know that "El Nino" factors in somewhere, but I don't really understand how it affects the weather.

Thanks.

[soothsayer]

1. our local guys said it will come a month early. so do my woolly bear

caterpillars!

[Joy Anne]

3. Where?

It's supposed to be cold here in Pennsylvania; I guess we'll be having wintrier weather than my friends in Alaska again.

[smirkymonkey]

6. Northeast.

I live in NYC, but have family in Connecticut, Upstate NY, and Southern Maine so I usually go visiting from time to time.

[soothsayer]

12. whoops, sorry. DC area n/t

[snowFLAKE]

4. Woolly bear caterpillars are shills for Halliburton

They're just trying to scare you (and the rest of society) into Panic Buying of winter heating oil - in an attempt to drive prices Even Higher and line The Pockets of Mr. Cheney and his ilk - they need all the $$'s they can get RIGHT NOW considering that their time Is Short.

[soothsayer]

13. that subject line had me ROFLMAO! caught me by surprise. n/t

[smirkymonkey]

5. God, I haven't seen a woolly bear caterpillar since I was

about 10! What is the story with them again?

[soothsayer]

14. has to do with the width of their band. Narrow stripe means cold winter,

wide means mild (overall---not counting blizzards or freak storms). The ones I've seen don't have any stripes at all! (maybe it's too early?)

[happyslug]

18. I heard it a little different

The three bans reflected the three phases of winter. A Narrow middle ban meant a mild winter, while a wide ban a long cold winter. Last year the Woolly bears I saw had a long black ban, a wide middle ban, and a short end ban (meaning winter would come late, be serves with a late Spring). Close to what happened in Western Pa.

[Dogmudgeon]

It all depends on where you live

A weak El Niño is forming, which means somewhat wilder weather for the American West; the Pacific winter storm pattern has already formed. When combined with a strong positive Northern Atlantic Oscillation, El Niños bring lots of snow and nor'easters for the East; otherwise, the East is dryer than normal. Since the Atlantic was warmer than usual this Summer, I would expect the NAO to be more positive than usual, though it's not a sure thing.

But, I'm still missing some of the other factors used to forecast the weather for the winter. Accu-Weather has a very good winter weather specialist, Joe Bastardi, though on-line they hide him behind a payment wall. And the Weather Channel has Paul Kocin, who is the Winter weather expert.

Once I find the last few pieces of info I'm, seeking, I'll post my own winter forecast for the Philly (actually Bos-Wash) region. So, should I post it here, or in the Meeting Room?

--bkl

[brokensymmetry]

8. Post it here, please!

This is one of my favorite forums, and I always read your posts/threads....

[smirkymonkey]

9. Thanks - Either is great, I check both regularly

I am in NY, so I guess Philly, eastern seaboard would be what I am looking for. Just wondering what were in for this year. Thanks again! :)

[Joy Anne]

2. I saw an article yesterday that agreed with local squirrels

Colder than usual in the middle Atlantic states, South, and Gulf coast; warmer in Alaska and west coast. I forget the rest--I think typical in New England and high precipitation in the Midwest.

The neighborhood squirrels have the fluffiest tails I've ever seen.

[smirkymonkey]

10. What do fluffy tails mean?

[soothsayer]

15. our DC area squirrels are eating like CRAZY!

Gonna' be a cold one!

[amazona]

7. cooler than usual in the southeast

They published the forecast yesterday, or maybe the day before, claiming it would be cooler than usual in the Southeast. I'm hoping this means hurricane season is over although it generally lasts until November 30. I heard a rumor that the Gulf of Mexico is cooling which would interfere with tropical formation. Keeping my fingers crossed! It has been quite warm so far!

[Viking12]

11. Here's NOAA's forecast

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm

[smirkymonkey]

16. Thanks! That's a very handy map!

Looks like things will be relatively normal for my area. I wish we'd get more snow though - I love snowstorms!

[DrWeird]

17. Generally cold.

With fewer hours of daylight.

[DemBones DemBones]

19. Spoken like a tv weatherman!

:7

[BigDaddyCaine]

20. Well, my opinion

comes from many years of being outdoors. I work outside and play outside all winter long....Im saying it will be a freakin butt freezer this winter. My knees tell me how the winter will be and theyve been hurting all month. I would put my knees over any dumbass, overpaid, college educated, right 20% of the time...weatherman. Any day of the week.

[smirkymonkey]

21. What part of the country are you in?

[BigDaddyCaine]

22. kansas

[sabbat hunter]

23. greenland block

a local forecaster here in ny (local channel 11 WPIX) said the Greenland Block was setting up again (we had this scenerio last year), this usually brings a colder and wetter than normal winter to the Northeast. We had this setup well into the spring and had a cooler and wetter than normal summer.
But he did also say an El Nino was forming in the Pacific which could weaken the Greenland Block.

still to early to tell about how strong El Nino will be, although the early indications say it will be a weak one.


david