China to Build 28 More Nuclear Power Reactors by 2020

[FBaggins]

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, approved the construction of 28 more nuclear power reactors under a revised target for 2020 to meet rising demand for clean energy and accelerate development of the industry.

Each of the one-gigawatt reactors will cost as much as 14 billion yuan ($2.1 billion), Mu Zhanying, general manager of the state-run China Nuclear Engineering Group, said in an interview in Beijing today. One gigawatt is enough to power 800,000 average U.S. homes.

Under the original plan announced in 2005, China was to spend 400 billion yuan to add 40 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2020 to help reduce reliance on more polluting coal and oil. The capacity will exceed 70 gigawatts by then under the revised plan, Wang Binghua, chairman of the State Nuclear Power Technology Corp., said on March 20.

“China will be the world’s nuclear industry leader in terms of technology and also in terms of planning for long term 30, 40 years,” Tony De Vuono, senior vice president and chief technology officer at Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., said in a separate interview in Beijing. “It’s pretty close to that right now. The Chinese government is very committed to nuclear.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-23/china-to-build-28-more-nuclear-power-reactors-by-2020-update1-.html

[Statistical]

1. I don't believe it for 2 facts.

1) "Everyone" knows nuclear is dead. It has already been decided by the people who said it was dead in 1970s.

2) Kris personally told me China is abandoning nuclear.

So sorry you and businessweek must be wrong. :)

Glad to see. Between 2020 and 2040 China plans to build ANOTHER 132 reactors.

China nuclear power:
Operating: 10
Currently Under Construction: 22
Planned by 2020: 28 more
Planned by 2020-2040: 132 more

[bananas]

2. History lesson

http://www.flickr.com/photos/16721844@N00/429450898/

[FBaggins]

3. Geography lesson

[kristopher]

4. That graph is very hard to argue with.

If anything ever demonstrated the difference between the critical thinking skills of those who promote nuclear power and those who are skeptical of it's claims it is the attempt to refute China's current policy moves and historical data embodied in your graph with a map of China.

[Statistical]

5. It isn't hard to realize China is a lot different than the US (especially US in 1980s)

Regulatory/Legal:
Do you think there will be any protestors chaining themselves to reactor gates, filing numerous petty lawsuits (with no hope of winning just trying to run the clock out), and making bomb threats to slow/delay reactor construction? Do you think there will be a massive amount of regulatory ratcheting in China (like what happened in US in 1980s)?

Resources:
COAL. Coal is insanely cheap (when ignoring all externalized costs). China has roughly 1/2 the US supply of coal with 6x the people. China has already exceeded current production and is now importing coal (China was major world exporter just 5 years ago). This is a huge economic & security issue for Chinese government. Cheap coal always undercut nuclear energy in terms of price per kWh. That is unlikely to happen in China. China will heat peak coal in next decade and if coal consumption continues to grow will become more and more dependent on foreign sources.

Infrastructure:
China isn't just buying reactors. They are building reactor factories. Obviously if you want a few of an item it is far cheaper to simply buy them however if you are going to need hundreds it makes much more sense to buy the factory. China expenditures in nuclear energy go far beyond the here and now. It is unlikely they will abandon the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on constructing reactor factories (to produce components).

Public Perception:
In US the combination of TMI and Cernobyl 7 years apart was a one-two punch. Pushed public support for nuclear power to an alltime low. Even in the US time has healed old wounds and support has risen from 46% to 62% in the last decade. The combination of rising fossil fuel costs + climate change + new reactor designs + 25 years without an accident is raising global perception. There is nothing to think that Chinese citizens perception of nuclear power is closer to US circa 1980s than US perception today.


China will have 60 reactors by 2020 and 200 reactors by 2040.

[joshcryer]

9. Better, but they'd need 300+ more on top of that (or renewables) to be carbon neutral.

It's still disconcerting, but that's better than the 100 estimate I'd been seeing.

[Statistical]

10. That is why unlike certain person who likes to call wind "toys"...

I realize we need wind/solar/hydro/efficiency improvements and sadly we likely need some CCS too (although it should be last resort).

The problem is too big to leave any cards on the table.

It is unlikely China will ever develop more than 30% nuclear power but it is equally likely China will develop 30%+ wind. However we may see 20%-25% of each = 40%-50% emission free power. Throw in 20% hydro, 5%-10% solar, and some CCS and you *could* see a low carbon (although unlikely carbon neutral) China.

[FBaggins]

6. It's EASY to argue with.

You act as if the "why" of these things never really mattered... that there was something magical/inevitable about history repeating itself regardless of circumstances.


This is China we're talking about... not the US. Hardly ANY of the factors that caused earlier estimates to fall short apply there.

[joshcryer]

11. Nice.

:rofl:

[Dogmudgeon]

7. This just in: Filming begins on "The America Syndrome"

And it's being promoted by a "street posse" financed by Redpeace.

--d!

[Massacure]

8. I got a chuckle out of that.

:thumbsup: