as a
certain DU contributor states here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x244480#244491 the actual installed wind power capacity far exceeded what was projected by the cited study.
IN fact the
installed wind power capacity for 2009 was about 2.5 times what the cited study http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41869.pdf#page=26&zoom=80">projected (for 2010) (
one year after the study was published). (NOTE that 2008 & 2009 were years of dramatic contraction (availability) of credit.)
In the interest of being realistic, let us consider a few matters:
http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/Executive_Briefings/USITC_EB_WindTurbines_David.pdf">The number of OEMs assembling nacelles in the U.S. increased from one in 2004 (GE) to five in 2008.
The number of turbine manufacturers with U.S. sales increased from five in 2003 to 13 in 2008..."The United States is a net importer of wind turbines and major components. U.S. imports of windpowered generating sets increased from $356 million in 2003 to $2.5 billion in 2008 (more than 600 percent)"
The Great Lakes area has considerable Wind Power potential .. is close to population centers and would not require the building of new transmission lines over long distances (affecting cost and time requirements).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602574.html">Studies Lift Hopes for Great Lakes Wind Turbine Farms just looking at sites off Michigan's coast-lines:
"...Michigan's coasts could produce 321,000 megawatts of energy." - now the study noted that this potential is before considering such issues as shippiing lanes, environmental concerns etc. But even if you cut that figure by a third, or a half, you are talking about a considerable power resource - close to demand centers.
Wind Resources map:
Wind Resources map
COST. This last factor is important:
Wind Power costs are closing in on Natural Gas power generation costs. So far, wind farms have been built as Private Investor projects. When Utilities start building their own wind farms the cost of wind generated power will come down another step (utilities enjoy very favorable financing rates and financing costs are a very significant part of the intitial cost of wind farms).
http://www.awea.org/faq/cost.htmlOverall, Wiser and Kahn estimate wind power costs, depending on ownership and financing method, as follows:
•Private ownership, project financing: 4.95 cents/kWh including PTC, 6.56 cents/kWh without PTC.
•IOU ownership, corporate financing: 3.53 cents/kWh including PTC, 5.9 cents/kWh without.
•Public utility ownership, internal financing: 2.88 cents/kWh including REPI, 4.35 cents/kWh without.
•Public utility ownership, project financing: 3.43 cents/kWh including REPI, 4.89 cents/kWh without.
With significant increases in wind turbine manufacturing capacity, the availability of wind farm sites close to population centers and the fact that the cost of wind power generation is closing in on that of natural gas power generation these factors combined portend continued strong growth in wind power in the future.
In the OP I did state that a rate of growth declining from 39% could get you to nuclear's share in about 11 years.
For what it's worth, assuming the EIA is correct in it's projection of electric power consumption (
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/newell121409.pdf#page=18">annual growth of 1% 2008-2035), growing a 1.8% share (wind power's share in 2009) to 22.1% in 2020 (20% growing at 1% per yr for 10 yrs) would require an annual rate of growth of 28.5%, or if you started at a 39% rate of growth and declined over ten years to a 15.7% rate of growth you would still get to the 22.1% of total consumption. The
net increase in installed capacity in the last year would be 328% over the first year{(.030054-.00702)/.00702}. Note the increase in yearly imports of windpowered generating sets from 2003 to 2008 .. 600%. Now, will the world be able to increase its production of wind turbines that much in the next 10 years? I don't know, but I submit it's possible. Wind power is just getting started.
0 1.8% 1.390 2.5%
1 2.5% 1.356 3.4%
2 3.4% 1.325 4.5%
3 4.5% 1.297 5.8%
4 5.8% 1.271 7.4%
5 7.4% 1.248 9.3%
6 9.3% 1.226 11.3%
7 11.3% 1.207 13.7%
8 13.7% 1.189 16.3%
9 16.3% 1.172 19.1%
10 19.1% 1.157 22.1%
....Maybe it will take 15 years to reach 20% of total consumed, but that still is more than people would have imagined. That was
my point in projecting the possible growth of wind power - to get people to thinking about what is possible. To show that
it won't take 30 years to get some appreciable gains from wind power.