Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientists

[cal04]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/expect-more-extreme-winters-thanks-to-global-warming-say-scientists-2168418.html

Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic and have warned that long periods of freezing weather are likely to become more frequent in years to come.

An analysis of the ice-free regions of the Arctic Ocean has found that the higher temperatures there caused by global warming, which have melted the sea ice in the summer months, have paradoxically increased the chances of colder winters in Britain and the rest of northern Europe.

The findings are being assessed by British climate scientists, who have been asked by ministers for advice on whether the past two cold winters are part of a wider pattern of climate change that will cause further damaging disruption to the nation's creaking transport infrastructure.

(snip)
Their models found that, as the ice cap over the ocean disappeared, this allowed the heat of the relatively warm seawater to escape into the much colder atmosphere above, creating an area of high pressure surrounded by clockwise-moving winds that sweep down from the polar region over Europe and the British Isles. Vladimir Petoukhov, who carried out the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said the computer simulations showed that the disappearing sea ice is likely to have widespread and unpredictable impacts on the climate of the northern hemisphere.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. yep this was predicted and now we are getting more evidence

of this.

If the Conveyor Belt shuts down this winter will be nothing.

[Bigmack]

4. I keep looking and looking for more research

on the "state" of the conveyor belt these days, and can't find much. Sure seems to this chile that few climatic issues are more important than this one. Anyone out there seen any recent reports - analysis - on what's going on with The Belt.....also known as the thermohalene current......? Ms Bigmack

[The Croquist]

5. Everything is "Predicted"

The Independent
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

Monday, 20 March 2000

A few highlights:

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

Apparently not that rare

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

I agree! But define "ultimately". Is it 10 years, 100 years, 1,000 years 10,000 years, 100,000 years, 1,000,000 years? Sooner or later it will be warmer then now but it was in the past and it will be in the future.

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

Try allot of the time. England has been dumped on for three years straight (from memory). No doubt it will cause chaos again as it usually does.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof (SIC) heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

Remind me not to take your advice on the lottery

Not any more, it seems.

Maybe you should revise and extend your remarks

You're right nadinbrzezinski. This was EXACTLY as predicted.

[txlibdem]

8. Absolutely right, U. of East Anglia is my trusted source as well

That's my go-to University for researcher quotes...

:sarcasm:

[Nederland]

12. Ummm, do you realize what the University of East Anglia is?

It's the first or second most important Climate Research Center in the world. It produces the longest running temperature record in the world (HadCRUT3) and is home to Phil Jones and Keith Briffa--two of the most respected researchers in the field.

[freshwest]

17. Thanks for telling us. It's impossible with the RW spin here to get through.

BTW, do you have a link to show something about their years of research to refute the climate change deniers?

And now the Tea Party majority is saying any consideration of global warming, climate change, alternative energy is dead.

They even plan to get rid of the EPA.

:argh:


Okay, I shouldn't take it out on the virtual computer there, but this is where I read all of this...

[jimlup]

2. The deniers won't be able to handle this

They'll just say that the scientists are changing the facts to fit reality. Don't get me wrong, I know better, but that is what we are going to hear from them.

[BeFree]

3. Gulf of Mexico

This year they dumped all that oil into the Gulf. What if that hot oil made it so that the winds above the Gulf went clockwise, forming a high pressure over the gulf, similar to the warmth these scientists are claiming?

FYI: there was consistent high pressure over the Gulf all summer long.

[The Croquist]

6. This year they dumped all that oil into the Gulf.

The oil spill was about 205,800,000 gallons. That sounds like allot of oil. Thats about 8,000 - 10,000 times the size of an ingound swimming pool.

The Gulf of Mexico contains about 643 quadrillion gallons. A quadrillion is even bigger. It's 1,000,000,000,000,000 gallons. 643 quadrillion gallons works out to 643,000,000,000,000,000 gallons. That's a really big number. The water in the gulf was about 3,124,392,614 times as much as the oil in the gulf. Thats a bit more the 3 billion times as much. So how much do you think this oil heated up the gulf? Lets just say it heated it up one degree. That would mean that it had to come out of the ocean floor at about 3 million degrees to warm up the gulf by one degree. No wonder the oil well failed. Steel can't handle 3 million degrees!

You're blaming snow in Britain over this?

[BeFree]

7. eh?

The oil didn't spread across the whole gulf, so all that calculation you did was wasted.

Can we take it that you will just ignore the science offered up?

You do know we are treading in a whole different field these days with a whole host of anthro-impacts to the planet, right? Surely you aren't one of those that thinks we aren't forcing any changes, are you?

[petronius]

9. High pressure is normal for that region during the summer, as the Bermuda

High strengthens in the warm season. The clockwise flow around the high is an important steering mechanism for tropical storms.

Last summer, however, sea level pressure over the Gulf was anomalously low (still high pressure, but lower than is typical) according to the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin...

[BeFree]

11. Bermuda high?

You do know where Bermuda is on the map, right?

Nowhere near the gulf. Try again. Oh, and while your at it, try to find a link to your claims.

I have been watching the maps since June of the Atlantic winds and the maps through the summer had a high directly over the gulf for 50% of the time.

[petronius]

13. The subtropical high in the Atlantic is variously named: Bermuda, Atlantic, or Azores

High for areas where the center of the high is typically located. During summer, the cell frequently extends westward into the Gulf.

Here's a look at July 2010 as an example: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_072010/Tropics/figt19.shtml

The big blue area in the top panel is the high - notice how it extends westward across the Gulf (and into the spill area). The orange in the bottom panel is a negative anomaly, lower than expected pressure.

So to reiterate, high pressure over the Gulf is not uncommon, and it was not unusually high last summer...

[BeFree]

14. So

You think I am lying? Or what?

To be clear: when I wrote high, I meant a clockwise rotation in the steering winds which 9 times out of 10 depicts a high pressure system.

Anyway, whatcha think? Be aware that I can show you the images, if I can find the archives.

[petronius]

15. What I think is that high pressure patterns are common over the Gulf in summer,

and sea level pressure last summer was not unusually high (in fact, it was less high than the normal). In other words, anticyclonic summer-time circulation over the GOM is typical, not anomalous...

[BeFree]

16. Typical?

You have evidence for that or just a guess?

The pressure over the Atlantic was lower, yes! That's why there were so many storms.

So why were there no storms in the Gulf this year? There were a few next to Mexico in the western Gulf. Eastern Gulf was clean as a whistle. Very abnormal for a near record setting hurricane season and nary a puff in the eastern Gulf. Where the oil IS.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Wasn't there a recent movie about this?

The plot was simple: Increased global warming disrupted the normal heat-transfer mechanisms of the Earth, essentially shutting down heat transfer in the Northern Hemisphere, which entered an Ice Age within a few short weeks.

http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTU1NTA3NzMwOV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNzEzMTEzMw@@._V1._SX640_SY964_.jpg

Oh, yeah. That one.

--d!

[muriel_volestrangler]

19. Yeah, that was a silly movie, and this is not about the thermohaline circulation shutting down

It's about an increasing chance of northerly winds for Europe, which means spells of colder weather. Notice that the cold spell for Britain has now ended - daytime temperatures are back up to about 6 degrees centigrade (about 43 Fahrenheit).

[kestrel91316]

18. Cold, wet fall (and now winter) here in SoCal. Am freezing my ass off

in my poorly insulated apartment with tiny heaters.

[Kaleva]

20. Winters seem to be more mild here in Upper Michigan

End of December and it's been in the high 30's and I see grass on the sides of the roads. There have been Starlings visiting my bird feeders and I don't recall them being around this late in the year when I was younger.