"The Age of Cheap Energy is Over"

[bhikkhu]

One of these scenarios – the ‘New Policies Scenario’ – takes account of the broad policy commitments that have already been announced by governments. It assumes cautious implementation of national pledges made at the UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020, and also assumes that new measures are introduced after 2020 to maintain the pace of decline in carbon intensity.

In this scenario, by 2035, three-quarters of the world’s oil production from existing fields will need to be replaced, Mr Tanaka said.

That works out to just over 50 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about four times the production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer.

http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1928

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...not that it hasn't been stated many times before, but coming from the IEA it does have a bit more weight, and the article has some good perspectives.