It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse

[OKIsItJustMe]

OK… here’s an interesting perspective on EV’s…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/289828-it-s-time-to-kill-the-electric-car-drive-a-stake-through-its-heart-and-burn-the-corpse

It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse

August 25, 2011

…

• 96 kWh of batteries would be enough for a fleet of 64 Prius-class hybrids that will each save 160 gallons of fuel per year and generate a societal fuel savings of 10,240 gallons per year;
• 96 kWh of batteries would be enough for a fleet of six Volt-class plug-in hybrids that will each save 300 gallons of fuel per year and generate a societal fuel savings of 1,800 gallons per year; and
• 96 kWh of batteries would be enough for a fleet of four Leaf class electric vehicles that will each save 400 gallons of fuel per year and generate a societal fuel savings of 1,600 gallons per year.

This example highlights the fundamental flaw in all vehicle electrification schemes. When batteries are used to recover and reuse braking energy that would otherwise be wasted, a single kWh of capacity can save up to 107 gallons of fuel per year. When batteries are used as fuel tank replacements, a single kWh of capacity can only save 19 gallons of fuel per year and most of the fuel savings at the vehicle level will be offset by increased fuel consumption in power plants.

Using batteries to enable energy efficiency technologies like recuperative braking is sensible conservation.

Using batteries as fuel tank replacements is a zero-sum game that consumes huge quantities of metals for the sole purpose of substituting electricity for oil. Since roughly 45% of domestic electric power is from coal fired plants and that percentage will decline very slowly, the only rational conclusion is that electric drive is unconscionable waste and pollution masquerading as conservation.

…

(Presumably, if our electricity were produced in a cleaner fashion, the author might feel somewhat differently.)

[gateley]

1. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing -- hopefully we're working

on better batteries.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. I skipped this Edison quote from earlier in the article

http://seekingalpha.com/article/289828-it-s-time-to-kill-the-electric-car-drive-a-stake-through-its-heart-and-burn-the-corpse

…

The storage battery is one of those peculiar things which appeals to the imagination, and no more perfect thing could be desired by stock swindlers than that very self-same thing. Just as soon as a man gets working on the secondary battery it brings out his latent capacity for lying.”

…

Regardless of how you store those 96 kWh, his numbers work out in a similar fashion (i.e. you’re faced with diminishing returns.)

[PoliticAverse]

8. There are some promising batteries coming from nanotech research

hopefully some of them prove themselves out of the lab.

[Confusious]

24. Please name me one thing we use in everyday life

That uses nanotechnology.

I'm trying to prove a point, but I would also like to know. I watch tech all the time, and I can't name one. Maybe you can.

[OKIsItJustMe]

27. Nanosized silver particles are used as disinfectant

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20528456

A number of sunblocks use nano-sized particles
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20354643

[Confusious]

33. Nano particles are different then manufacturing nanotubes

but good starting point.

I was looking for something like carbon nanotubes, or nano metal structures. Something a bit more complicated.

We can manufacture diamonds, we just can't make anything more then rocks for grinding with them.

[OKIsItJustMe]

43. How about TV’s?

http://www.google.com/search?q=LEX8+nanotechnology
http://www.nanosysinc.com/what_we_do/led_backlighting/

[Confusious]

48. Yea, that looks like it

If they could do a layer in something like carbon, it would work with a capacitor (Batteries).

I'll say probably in the the next ten years, the "probably" for unforeseen difficulties, which always seem to crop up.

So you got me from "not going to happen in ten years" to "probably going to happen in ten years"

[OKIsItJustMe]

53. Wait!

This is not “probably in 10 years.”
http://www.pcworld.com/article/216073/lg_first_look_netcast_and_nanoled.html

[Confusious]

55. I know the TV is now

I meant the capacitors ( Batteries )

[OKIsItJustMe]

54. Oh, and about manufacturing nanotubes…

http://www.azonano.com/news.aspx?newsID=12208

World's Largest Carbon Nanotube Manufacturing Plant

Published on June 23, 2009 at 10:04 AM

http://www.cnanotechnology.com/">CNano Technology (CNano), founded in 2007 to change the economics of producing a wide range of applications based on extremely pure carbon nanotubes, announced today at NT09: Tenth International Conference on the Science and Application of Nanotubes, that it has successfully scaled up its manufacturing technology to reach the world's largest production capacity of 500 tons per year for multiple wall carbon nanotubes. The carbon nanotube products are already in evaluation with selected customers in several markets that include electronics, automotive and energy storage.

"This manufacturing capability is an important milestone in the drive to meet current and future customer supply demands. The production line validates our technology at a much larger scale while providing a reliable large volume supply source for customers utilizing the unique properties of carbon nanotubes in their products," said Xindi Wu, President and CEO of CNano.

CNano proprietary manufacturing technology enables large scale production at a lower cost structure than other commercial nanotube manufacturing processes. The growing list of commercial applications for carbon nanotubes includes conductive plastics for electronics and automotive, structural composites for sporting goods and aerospace, conductive coatings for displays and aerospace and electrodes for batteries and super capacitors among others.

"CNano has achieved a truly significant milestone. CNano can now bring mass produced nano materials to market at the right price. The company has broken through a barrier that has existed in this market up until now. They have successfully scaled the manufacturing process for making carbon nanotubes. This now makes their unique combination of elevated mechanical properties and low electrical resistivity available at the low cost necessary for adoption in large consumer and industrial markets," said Tom Baruch, founder and managing director of CMEA Capital, who serves as chairman of CNano.

…

[Confusious]

56. There's a little more involved then just the nanotubes

In making a capacitor (Battery)

They have to connect all those nanotubes together as a conductor, making a plate, then they have to find an insulator just as small and lay that down, then lay down another layer of nanotubes to form the other plate. Then they wind them up in a can for maximum density.

That's a basic capacitor.

They have a way to go.

You can laugh at me if it comes out in the next 5 years. You can proclaim in your sig line I was wrong. But I don't see it before then, but in the next ten.

I saw a great article about using diamonds in computer chips. They could run at terahertz speeds instead of gigahertz. They had a way of growing a flat layer of diamond, and depositing more diamond on the base. 1000x more performance then computers today. I read that article 10 years ago.

Sorry, after so many false alarms I've dampened my enthusiasm in favor of reality.

[OKIsItJustMe]

70. I see, I guess I misread you

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=308846&mesg_id=308933
“Nano particles are different then manufacturing nanotubes”
“I was looking for something like carbon nanotubes,”

You didn’t actually mean “manufacturing nanotubes” then. What you meant was mass producing capacitors from nanotubes. Obviously, that will take a little longer.

You mentioned at the same time, “We can manufacture diamonds, we just can't make anything more then rocks for grinding with them.”

As it turns out, this is not true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_diamond#Applications

[Confusious]

71. I guess I should clarify again

I've been having a hard time with that.

"common" use. A lot of the applications seem to be cutting tools (common), high powered lasers (like the death ray in my backyard. Not common) and heat sinks (Gotta have the heat sinks for the death ray. Damn thing gets HOT! not common). Some don't exist yet, like computer chips made from diamond.

I'm sure there are a lot of fantastic things made and useable. It doesn't really do anyone any good until it comes into "common" (everyday) use.

[OKIsItJustMe]

76. So, then tablesaw blades don’t count?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_blade

I suppose http://www.google.com/search?q=diamond+drill">drill bits wouldn’t count either.

Or anything industrial… (Right?) http://ussynthetic.com/

[Confusious]

77. They're just embedding rocks in their materials

diamond cutting has been around for a while.

Making a computer chip out of diamond is a little tougher.

[OKIsItJustMe]

78. No, actually, they aren’t “just embedding rocks in their materials”

http://www.asds.net/_NewsPage.aspx?id=1366&terms=synthetic

Technology report: Diamond scalpel

October 2005

The ASDS Technology Report is a member service designed to inform dermatologic surgeons of new technologies or procedures in the marketplace. The series represents a distillation of available published scientific data and anecdotal information on a specific technology or procedure and should not be misconstrued as an endorsement by the ASDS. The Society encourages its members to use their independent judgment in applying any technology or procedure in the care and treatment of their patients.

Definition and History:The sharpness of the diamond scalpel has long been recognized in surgery and basic science. A diamond scalpel is estimated to be over 40 times sharper than the finest surgical steel. This correlates to more exact cuts without tearing of tissue or ragged tissue edges. Diamond scalpel blades are routinely used in corneal surgery as well as in tissue preparation prior to electron microscopy to produce smooth tissue edges. The use of diamond cutting instruments for dermatologic, oculoplastic and facial plastic surgery is now possible

Mechanism:Diamond scalpel blades are made from synthetic diamonds, are honed to precision edges and are then mounted onto surgical handles. The diamond scalpel is then used like any other scalpel blade for skin incision or soft tissue excision. The sharpness of the blade allows microfine cuts with smooth edges and is thus ideal for delicate cosmetic or microsurgical techniques.

A diamond scalpel is also available with coagulation abilities. The Diamond LaserKnife (Clinicon Corp., Oceanside, CA) consists of a diamond scalpel mounted onto a handpiece that simultaneously delivers infrared energy through a fiber optic CO2 laser. The laser energy passes through the diamond blade and delivers infrared energy to the adjacent tissue providing simultaneous controlled coagulation.

Steam sterilization and the ability to re-sharpen the tips allow long-term repeated use of these instruments.

…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_turning

Diamond turning

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Diamond turning is a process of mechanical machining of precision elements using lathes or derivative machine tools (e.g., turn-mills, rotary transfers) equipped with natural or synthetic diamond-tipped tool bits. The term single-point diamond turning (SPDT) is sometimes applied, although as with other lathe work, the "single-point" label is sometimes only nominal (radiused tool noses and contoured form tools being options). The process of diamond turning is widely used to manufacture high-quality aspheric optical elements from crystals, metals, acrylic, and other materials. Optical elements produced by the means of diamond turning are used in optical assemblies in telescopes, video projectors, missile guidance systems, lasers, scientific research instruments, and numerous other systems and devices. Most SPDT today is done with computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools. Diamonds also serve in other machining processes, such as milling, grinding, and honing.

…

[Confusious]

79. The scalpel is just a cut diamond

probably with lasers. Nothing new.

diamond turning is grinding with embedded diamonds.

I know a couple of optical engineers and quite a few machinists. The bits aren't made from a solid piece of diamond, and the diamond turning is Just embedded diamond for grinding.

Nothing newe, nothing like making a computer chip.

[OKIsItJustMe]

80. Surgery is not grinding rocks

You make sweeping statements, which simply aren’t true.

[Confusious]

81. No, it's not

But we're taking about the manufacturing and uses of diamond, not surgery.

The scalpel is a cut piece of rock, the rest are just embedded hunks of rock.

Nothing new, nothing made with new techniques, or techniques from a different field, such as xray lithography.

[OKIsItJustMe]

82. Nothing new

http://questional.com/interview/137-joe-tabeling-the-creation-of-synthetic-diamonds/

…

Can you give us a little background on the synthetic diamond industry and what areas or industries synthetic diamond is applied?

…

What industries have used your materials?

There’s a variety of industries. Diamond is still used extensively in the metal cutting industry, so we’ve made pieces of this polycrystalline and diamond material, which can be put on tool bits for milling or turning or drilling, these kinds of things. Higher quality material can often be used in optical applications, optical elements for infrared spectrophotometers or other analytical instruments. Beam conditioning components for X-ray beam lines and experimental facilities. A variety of high technology applications.

We use the high thermoconductivity of diamond to remove the heat from higher-power electronic devices, so small diamond heat spreaders are being used in laser diode packages in the telecommunications industry or in the cutting laser industry. And we’re finding more and more uses for the thermal property of diamond in higher-power electronics for power conversion and other forms of communication in military and satellite applications.

…

[Confusious]

83. They were doing that 10 years ago

probably more. The article I read was 10 years ago. They were making synthetic diamonds in the 80's.

something new would be a computer chip made from diamond. the little glass statuettes made from diamond. Formed diamond, not cut diamond. Not little rocks you can get from smashing it with a hammer (diamond has poor sheer strength, that's how they cut it)

Once you can form something, you can use it for almost anything.

diamond tabletops that would never wear out.
diamond computer chips
diamond covering for windows that would never break
diamond covering to protect buildings from the elements

etc, etc, etc

[OKIsItJustMe]

84. Then this statement is no longer operative

“We can manufacture diamonds, we just can't make anything more then rocks for grinding with them.”

If we cannot make diamond tabletops, then we can’t do anything with them.

(Now if only I knew of a good reason to want a diamond tabletop…)

[PoliticAverse]

29. Good question. The most likely place is in some electronics you use..

Many processors and memory-devices these days are based on sub-100 nanometer technology,
which is considered the beginning limit on 'nanotech' (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanotechnology )

This would include Intel and AMD processors and some chips used in the iPhone.

The processor in my home computer is considered nanotech as it is based on 45 nanometer technology.

Here's an extensive list of consumer products incorporating nanotech:

http://www.nanotechproject.org/inventories/consumer/

[Confusious]

32. I thought someone might say computer chips

I don't include them because the manufacturing process is different then something like carbon nanotubes.

Looking for something more complex, like a nano fabric, etc.

Particles don't really count, because I can smash rocks and make nano rocks.

[Nederland]

41. You asked to name one thing we use in everyday life that uses nanotechnology

People named several, so you changed the question to be "name something that uses carbon nanotubes".

Don't move the goals posts.

[Confusious]

47. Sorry I'm not perfect like you

I realized my request was vague and restated it.

Oh, and I requested something more complex, like a nano fiber, not just "name something that uses carbon nanotubes."

So I take back my apology. You're not perfect.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. It is necessary for us to re-engineer our civilization...

So developing electric cars and building power plants that do not rely Carbon consumption will be necessary. We should also stop adding to urban sprawl by building expensive individual homes where people must drive relatively long distances to work.

[GliderGuider]

6. We will.

Just not voluntarily.

"That which must be done to avoid the crisis will be done only as its consequence."

[Ozymanithrax]

17. On macro scales, I don't think species or cultures make radical changes voluntarily...

Species go extinct when they can not evolve fast enough to meet change. Human cultures do the same, as can be shown with the Mayan, Easter Island cuulture, and the Bronze Age collapse.

[Terry in Austin]

74. More likely, civilization will be re-engineered for us

Effecting a widespread deployment of electric cars, alt.energy power sources and so on implies a fairly centralized project with the necessary cash, consensus, political will and sources of energy. Figure the odds.

It's also a HUGE project. Things being the way they are, it doesn't seem likely that such a thing would ever get organized. "We" -- however you care to define "we" -- just won't have that much ability to bring about a grand, pro-active engineering solution. Such notions, I'm afraid, are a legacy of 20th century industrialism, which is what got us into this mess in the first place.

We'll surely muddle through, making whatever local adaptations are imposed on us by circumstances, and those will add up to the actual re-engineering. Grand it ain't, but we'll be lucky if we get something that works.

The good news is that power sources relying on carbon consumption will become very scarce, as fossil fuel supplies do the same.

[qb]

4. Can we not have an electric car that also recovers braking energy?

Or is that too simple?

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. They already do

That’s one of the places they get their efficiency from.
http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/faq/view/55

[zipplewrath]

10. Okay, but you missed the point

In a Prius ALL they do is store energy from braking. In an electric car they BOTH store braking energy AND store energy for propulsion.

Your comparison does not make any accounting for their dual use. An electric vehicle "saves" all the gas that the Prius burns. Yes, that is offset by all the fuel burned at the power plant. But the power plant operates at much higher temperatures and therefor much higher efficiencies. (It'd be pretty hard to be as inefficient as a car engine).

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. No I didn't miss the point

The point was simply invalid.

As for the inefficiency of a car engine, are you familiar with the efficiency of the typical coal burning plant?

http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/combustion/index.html

…

This highly integrated system of gasifiers, combustors, gas and steam turbines results in a high overall fuel-to-electricity efficiency, exceeding 55 percent in many advanced concepts (the average efficiency of today's coal-burning power plant typically is around 33-35%). Higher efficiencies mean more affordable electric power for consumers, and because less fuel is required to generate electricity, overall greenhouse gas emissions can be significantly reduced.

…

[zipplewrath]

14. 18%

Depending upon how one is calculating efficiency, a typical auto is around 12 -18%. The Prius concept improves on that extensively, mostly by avoiding idle and acceleration losses. But it still doesn't approach 35%. And not all (by any stretch) electricity for the all electrics comes from coal. Hydro in several areas provides alot of electricity.

Just the ability to burn hotter alone improves the efficiency of the heat engines used in electricity production.

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. The efficiency of a coal fueled EV is about 22%

http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/buswksp10_mancini.pdf

[dmallind]

20. Where's the gas-powered vehicle that dominates the industry currently? nt

[zipplewrath]

21. Different efficiency calculation

That's "well to wheels". I was quoting "Tank to wheels".

[OKIsItJustMe]

23. Tank to wheels is only part of the picture

The article is talking about overall efficiency, taking into account the fact that about 70% of the electricity in the US is produced by burning fossil fuels.

http://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epa_sum.html

Figure ES 1. US Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2009

[zipplewrath]

26. That will lower auto efficiency

If you want to talk well to wheels for automobiles, it will lower it down from the 18- 20% I quoted. I'd hazard a guess of around 8-12%

[OKIsItJustMe]

28. According to the chart

A diesel bus is about 26% efficient well to wheel.


Now, remember, the author does not dispute that an EV is more efficient than a conventional vehicle, or even a hybrid. His issue is whether the relatively small increase in efficiency over a hybrid justifies all the additional battery capacity.

[zipplewrath]

37. It does because of the path

It is part of a larger solution. NOW an electric car is basically a "coal fired" car. But as we address electrical generation, the benefits flow into our transportation issues. Cars can utilize solar panels as they become more appropriate. Alternative energy can flow into the grid and have a market to utilize it for transportation. You don't have to do everything in order when you are changing an infrastructure.

[OKIsItJustMe]

44. As I wrote in the OP

(Presumably, if our electricity were produced in a cleaner fashion, the author might feel somewhat differently.)

[zipplewrath]

45. It is being produced

Depending upon how far back, and the basis of comparison, we are producing our energy "cleaner". We've got a long way to go, so the sky's the limit. In the mean time, I don't see any point in NOT developing well functioning electric cars.

[OKIsItJustMe]

46. Things aren’t changing that quickly

Don’t get me wrong. I’m a big fan of renewable power. I’ve even considered an electric car (since our power mix is cleaner than average.) However, when you look at it, it’s going to be a long time before really big changes take hold.

The growth of wind looks impressive; love to see exponential growth like that. (Be sure to note units.)


Until you compare it to everything else:

[kristopher]

49. That touches on the fundamental flaw in the OP

The author's choice of how to present the data is driven by what appears to be self-interested economic motives since he is a former director and current stockholder in a company that will suffer significant economic damage as EVs are adopted.

zipplewaith's remarks go to the issue well since the method used to distort the significance of the authors view is to draw boundaries that lead to false conclusions. If the lead acid battery salesman were being forthcoming, the discussion of energy sources and our entire energy system would be far more comprehensive since that is where the entire argument for EV's resides. Our goal goes far beyond changing the mix of metals that are used for transportation, it is to redesign our energy system in a manner that makes it both more efficient and more sustainable.

Glider Guider is also correct when he states that carbon emissions is a good metric for looking at the problem the OP is trying to obfuscate. The automobile is one piece of a much larger puzzle that centers around carbon. Removing it from that context and treating it as if the rest of the puzzle doesn't exist is sophistry, not science.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

69. Been there done that

www.afstrinity.com

[GliderGuider]

7. Calculating the advantages in terms of carbon emissions saved would show the true benefits

Especially if one assumes the shutdown of all coal and natural gas power stations... :evilgrin:

[dmallind]

9. Some issues

most of the fuel savings at the vehicle level will be offset by increased fuel consumption in power plants

This is patently false, as electricity generation is far more efficient. For this to be true a power generating plant would have to lose 50%+ of its input to heat compared to an ICE. Scaling up the power produced from a car engine to a power plant would have these plants into star territory heat generators if this were true.

consumes huge quantities of metals for the sole purpose of substituting electricity for oil

Again does not consider the alternatives. A Leaf or Volt replaces an ICE car. Clearly its sheet metal is the same, and looking at weights for comparable cars it seems batteries (no idea how much metal content - but plenty of plastic there too) weigh about the same as engines (100% metal). If EVs use that much more metal than ICEs how come they don't weigh much more, since their non-metal bits are the same or greater?

And overall - there's no real limit to KWhs even vaguely close to the horizon for EV production - not a single Prius has been held back because Leaf's were stealing their batteries (they don't even use the same kind of battery technology!) - why don't we save 10240 AND 1600 gallons a year - plus all the carbon output saved by the Leafs etc.

[madokie]

11. Its an anti-EV article

the author has a hardon for EV's and is skewing the numbers to make his idea work.
I don't believe a word of it.

[OKIsItJustMe]

13. Of course its an anti-EV article

That doesn’t necessarily mean his point is invalid.

[zipplewrath]

15. Propoganda

Not invalid, but technically it does qualify as "propoganda". "Advocacy" may be a nicer word.

[OKIsItJustMe]

19. With a title like that?

Surely, at the very least, it is advocacy.

That, however, does not refute his arguments.

[madokie]

30. Its a bullshit article

None of his logic is valid, its all bullshit designed to put a question mark in peoples mind about EVs. Trashy, shitty, bullshit and a lot of it.
It has no place for discussion, period.

[Confusious]

52. Any books you'd like to burn while you're blacklisting this article? nt

[madokie]

57. I don't buy bullshit and this is bullshit, so is your reply to me

thats why I don't buy what you're selling most times. :hi:

[Confusious]

58. No bullshit sir, if someone posts something

I never say it shouldn't be up for discussion, even if I disagree with it.

Seems an authoritarian attitude to say that. Maybe your arguments can't handle the light of day.

Not that any of your cohorts are making any better ones "This article is bullshit, this guy sells batteries, this guy doesn't take into account the lowering of battery prices (Even though he does, and he specifically had a chart showing the price of batteries remaining flat. Not everything follows moores "law""

[madokie]

61. I don't care to discuss bullshit stories. Whats to be gained from discussing a pack of lie

[Confusious]

62. How do you know they are lies? Did you run down the numbers?

Somehow I doubt it.

The person writing the article has expertise in the area. You just look at it, don't agree with it, and dismiss it out of hand. Like many of your fellows.

He had an apt description:

"At the time, Edison was a customer who wanted to buy batteries to improve the reliability of the Pearl Street Station, the first coal-fired utility in North America. An essential truth even Edison failed to recognize is that battery developers don't lie, but potential customers consistently lie to themselves. They hear about gee-whiz inventions, overestimate the practical importance of the innovations and then make quantum leaps of imagination from the reasonable to the absurd. Therefore, the most important task for investors (and anyone else) is to critically and objectively examine their own assumptions and avoid hopium induced hallucinations."

[kristopher]

63. It isn't worth deep analysis

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=308846&mesg_id=309008

[Confusious]

68. Not much deep thinking required in repeating the words of others

it's disturbing.

let's see, he has an economic interest

A. He sells lead acid batteries.
B. Hybrids use Lion or NiMH
C. Electric uses Lion
D. He's pushing Hybrids
E. Even if he has a PbC battery for Hybrids and the Electric car, shouldn't he want to sell more? Why kill a money pit?

If he had a bias, shouldn't he be talking shit about hybrids AND the electric car and pushing ICE?

Seriously, logic fail

Our goal goes far beyond changing the mix of metals that are used for transportation

don't want to talk about the metals required, because if you do, that puts a stranglehold on our fantasy. Seems resources are limited, except when it's something we want, and don't want to see. "changing the mix of metals?" what? He can change the laws of chemistry? I think not.

Rising rare earth metal prices put a stranglehold on wind power in China

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/08/chinas-wind-power-sector-struggles-with-rare-earth-price-hikes

Glider Guider is also correct when he states that carbon emissions is a good metric for looking at the problem the OP is trying to obfuscate.

Price(see link above) is and supply(see link above) is the final determinate on how far you can go. No supply, carbon doesn't matter. can't expand supply? well your growth is stuck. resources aren't unlimited. As far as carbon, putting it into gas saved seems a pretty good number to me. Some see carbon and their eyes glaze over. Put in terms of gas, and it makes an impact.

Some of can see that gas saved = less carbon output = less carbon footprint.

The automobile is one piece of a much larger puzzle that centers around carbon. Removing it from that context and treating it as if the rest of the puzzle doesn't exist is sophistry, not science.

The most laughable part (well, except for the economic interest). "The automobile is one piece." Not one piece, THE piece. The amount of petroleum we use is nearly equal to natural gas AND coal usage. The amount of carbon put out by all the cars in the world dwarfs power generation. Remove the auto, our problems go away. (just so I don't fuel any fantasies, it'll never happen. I for one would be happy to see them go)

As far as the science, Science ALWAYS removes the common denominator to find effects, puts things into their own little world to find an effect.

Of course, I doubt any of this will get through,since, as you said, it's not worthy of discussion.

[txlibdem]

72. Economic interest? Yes, absolutely

Your claim that this lead acid battery maker has no economic interest in hybrids is false.

Hybrids must always have the fossil fuel engine running, therefore they all need a lead acid battery to start the engine. Only once the NiMH batteries in the Prius have built up enough electrical charge from regenerative braking can they then be relied on to restart the engine.

Electric vehicles never need his lead acid batteries. Electric vehicles do not even have a fossil fuel engine.

I'm not sure if the Chevy Volt needs a starter battery. Anyone have a clue on the Volt?

[Confusious]

25. The batteries use massive amounts of metal

Lithium is a metal.

[dmallind]

40. So do engines - more so. The alternative to EV is ICE, no? Steel and aluminum are metals too. nt

[Confusious]

51. Yes, but iron is fairly common, no?

lithium, not so much.

You're an either/or person? if there is no electric car, there is no solution?

There are hybrids, which the author says save more gas. he also says using the battery in hybrids saves more gas then an electric car because of the energy required to extract, refine and build the battery materials.

[kristopher]

59. Nothing the author says can be accepted without independent verification

His bias is overt.

[Confusious]

60. Sure, the made up bias you see

Since he doesn't agree with you. Anyone who doesn't agree with you has a bias. Anyone who does "thinks for themselves."

Let's see:

A. He sells lead acid batteries.
B. Hybrids use Lion or NiMH
C. Electric uses Lion
D. He's pushing Hybrids
E. Even if he has a PbC battery for Hybrids and the Electric car, shouldn't he want to sell more? Why kill a money pit?

If he had a bias, shouldn't he be talking shit about hybrids AND the electric car and pushing ICE?

Seriously, logic fail.

( Ahh, I see now why you don't like the article and are twisting yourself into feats of logic fail to discredit him: "the world cannot produce enough technology metals to permit a widespread transition to alternative energy or electric drive." )

[dmallind]

65. Are you a person who only thinks there can be one solution?

[Confusious]

67. context?

[Kennah]

88. Lithium worries are nothing to, well, worry about

http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/lithium
http://www.ecogeek.org/component/content/article/2918

[Terry in Austin]

75. The alternatives to EV and ICE

It seems unwise to assume that there is going to be some kind of universal car system forever and ever, with the only debate about what turns the wheels.

The rude fact is that there are some "default" alternatives, notably feet and bicycles, and we'll be lucky enough if we get to choose anything more convenient -- say, electric trams.

[RickFromMN]

87. How much Lithium is used in a Nissan Leaf?

I did a google search, and got confused.

http://www.tremcenter.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=505:lithium-contained-in-batteries-less-than-1-of-cost&catid=105:latest-news&Itemid=476
The above URL says,
"According to Jon Hykawy, a researcher at Byron Capital Markets, the Nissan Leaf contains about 4kg of lithium metal, equivalent to 21kg of lithium carbonate. According to the USGS , lithium carbonate in 2009 cost $4.47 per kg. Hykawy states that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is actually more like $5.70 per kg.

Thus, the Nissan Leaf contains $120 of lithium carbonate. That's 0.6% of the cost of the battery."

Are we actually arguing over 4 Kg of Lithium?
Isn't that around 10 pounds of Lithium?

I read somewhere else, the Lithium is not used up, but can be recycled, recaptured.
http://www.hybridcars.com/environment/birth-industry-recycle-lithium-auto-batteries-26047.html
It sounds like they can recover the Lithium.

[GliderGuider]

16. Yikes!! I just took a look at the article itself, and one thing hit me immediately

In his chart of per capita energy resources and metals he commits an enormous (boner/oversight/flim-flam) that makes much of the rest of the piece suspect.

To compound the problem, global production of energy resources is several orders of magnitude greater than global production of critical metals, as the following table based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey clearly shows.



Metric tons per person vs. kilograms per person is an insurmountable disparity.

Excuse me? This isn't just an apples and oranges comparison, it's fig newtons and grapple grommets.

I agree with his point that rare earth metals should be deployed to maximum advantage, and he might even be right that batteries are a poor substitute for gas tanks. But he doesn't show enough technical acumen to allow me to trust his conclusions without independent validation.

[OKIsItJustMe]

22. I think he was just trying to put quantities in perspective

i.e. I don’t believe his point was, "We produce a lot more oil than lithium, so we can just piss it away."

I think his point was, “When it comes to getting things out of the ground, metal is actually pretty rare. (For example, we dig up a lot more coal than aluminum.)”

Here’s an interesting chart I just found:

[kristopher]

31. Disclosure: it's by former director and major stockholder in lead-acid battery company

From your link - <"Disclosure: Author is a former director of Axion Power International and holds a substantial long position in its common stock."[/b>


http://www.axionpower.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?f=1&BzID=1933&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=0&ID=10298
Lead-Carbon Energy Storage Device Overview

PbC® Technology

The full technical description of Axion's proprietary PbC® technology is a "multi-celled asymmetrically supercapacitive lead-acid-carbon hybrid battery." Like a lead-acid battery, our battery consists of a series of cells. Within the individual cells, however, our construction is more complex. Where the negative electrodes in lead-acid batteries are simple sponge lead plates, our negative electrodes are five-layer assemblies that consist of a carbon electrode, a corrosion barrier, a current collector, a second corrosion barrier and a second carbon electrode. These electrode assemblies are then sandwiched together with conventional separators and positive electrodes to make our battery, which is filled with an acid electrolyte, sealed and b]connected in series to the other cells.


The article is not credible analysis, it is obvious spin that depends on a self-serving pattern of assumptions combined with gerrymandered boundaries for the analysis. I suppose it pleases your hydrogen fuel cell powered heart...

[Confusious]

34. If he holds an interest in batteries

wouldn't he want to sell MORE batteries, which the electric car would have, rather then less, which a hybrid has?

You make no sense, as usual.

[kristopher]

35. Lead acid batteries are going the way of the dodo with intro of EVs.

An indication of his goal in writing is that article carefully avoids the most significant comparison between battery technologies - energy density by weight. Confirming the extent that he goes to to avoid this issue, he falsely characterizes the reason LIon is preferred to NiMH when he states it is because of supply constraints - that might be a factor, but LIon's superior energy density is the far and away the primary reason EVs have become a practical reality.

For me to "make sense" you'd actually have to understand that subject matter.

[Confusious]

36. Well, lead acid is not used in electric cars

or hybrids for that matter, he has even less of an interest, so your original point is still moot. Just an attempt at a slam against someone who doesn't tow your line. You are such an unbelievable authoritarian.

You still make no sense, and I understand the subject matter better then you, seeing as I have a science degree.

Actually, two science degrees now.

[kristopher]

38. :crazy:

I'm sure that made sense to you...

[Confusious]

39. Well, if that is what you think you are

I agree.

[OKIsItJustMe]

86. Rule #3

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=register

…

3. Civility: Treat other members with respect. Do not post personal attacks against other members of this discussion forum.

…

[Nederland]

42. I found one outright lie

Later on in the article there is this:

A123’s direct battery production costs have averaged over $1,000 per kWh for the last two years. By the time A123 adds a reasonable profit margin for its effort and an automaker adds another layer of markup, the only possible outcome is an end-user cost of $1,500 per kWh or more.

Since most advocates insist that battery costs will decline rapidly, I’ll assume end-user battery pack costs of $1,000 and $500 per kWh to keep the peace. I'll also use several other charitable assumptions including stable electricity costs of $0.12 per kWh, no loss of battery capacity over time, no cycle-life limitations and a 15% second-life value. The following graph presents alternative gas price scenarios of $3, $6 and $9 per gallon, and then overlays depreciation and charging cost curves for an EV with a 25 kWh battery pack priced at $1,000 and $500 per kWh. The solid red and green lines show current gas and battery prices. The dashed lines show possible futures that are uncertain as to both timing and magnitude.

These numbers are simply not true. I'm not exactly sure why he uses the term "end-user cost" because all it seems to do is obfuscate the issue. The simple fact is that the current production cost of the Li-ion battery in the Nissan Leaf is $375 per kWh. If he were truly being generous he would assuming that number will drop even further, making all the math in the above paragraph come up with rather different answers.

Leaf battery cost: http://gas2.org/2010/05/05/report-nissan-leafs-battery-costs-a-staggeringly-cheap-375kwh-to-produce/

[SpoonFed]

50. Uh... wrong.

If you read to the bottom of the article, it states that $375 per kWh is unconfirmed speculation.
Dont get me wrong... the OP is clearly a steaming pile of dog excrement.

[Nederland]

64. Not wrong

It may be speculation, but it is speculation based on easily acquired facts. The simple truth is that you can buy Li-Ion batteries on eBay for around $250 a kWh. Are you telling me Nissan has to pay more than any Joe with a credit card? Please...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1-PCS-UltraFire-18650-3-7V-Rechargeable-Battery-4000mAh-/190490238805?pt=US_Batteries&hash=item2c5a1a5f55#ht_2844wt_1189

[Confusious]

66. yea, sure put those in your Prius.

lol

[Nederland]

73. Your ignorance is showing

Battery packs for cars are little more than a large number of cells assembled together into a single unit. In fact, that is precisely how DIY electric car builders often create a battery pack (http://www.diyelectriccar.com/forums/showthread.php/personal-experience-prismatic-lifepo4-cells-25632.html) for themselves. The battery in my link is intended to convey the cost of a single Li-Ion cell, and calculating the cost of creating a large battery pack from that example is a simple exercise in arithmetic. While creation of a large pack does add a little more cost, the fact is that 80% of the cost of creating a battery pack is the cost of the individual cells. Therefore, to assert that somehow Nissan will end up paying much more per kWh is ridiculous. Think about it. We are talking about single unit prices on eBay here. Do you honestly think there are no additional savings available to a company as large as Nissan buying huge volumes? Please...

[Turbineguy]

85. A few points:

In order for regenerative braking to work to charge the battery, the voltage that the motor produces must be greater than the battery voltage.

The system that controls the regenerative braking would add weight, thereby negating some of the savings.

Central power stations produce power at double the efficiency of automotive engines.

In the end, most of the power that is wasted is due to bad driving habits and technology cannot overcome this.