Major storms likely in '06, experts say

[Thom Little]

Major hurricanes like Ivan and Katrina will strike the Gulf Coast again in 2006, a University of Alabama climatology and geography professor has predicted, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the trend could last for another two decades.

UA professor David Shankman said that the past 10 years have had active hurricane seasons. While global warming has been a factor in the frequency of hurricanes, he said a lack of powerful, high-altitude trade winds has played a major role in the severity of the storms. Trade winds occupy most of the tropics and blow northeasterly in the northern hemisphere and southeasterly in the southern hemisphere. The winds can reduce a hurricane's strength by "slicing off" the top.

"We did not have these powerful winds the last couple of years," Shankman said. "And that allowed these storms to be more powerful than would normally occur."

.......

"When we wrapped up the 2005 hurricane season, we explained that that season was an extension of this multi-decadal cycle in which there are not only more tropical storms and hurricanes, but they are also stronger in intensity and that this cycle began in 1995," he said. "The signals are that this will go into 2006."


http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051229/NEWS02/512290326/1009

[Boomer]

1. Can someone please explain?

>> ... a lack of powerful, high-altitude trade winds has played a major role in the severity of the storms. <<

So, what is the reason for a lack of trade winds? Just to play Devil's advocate, how can we be so sure that the climate change isn't affecting that part of the weather dynamic, too?

[Gman]

2. Lack of an El Nino is one reason

El Nino causes a subtropical jet from SW to NE. El Nino's inhibit development of hurricanes. I'm sure there are other reasons. No one knows what causes an El Nino. I personally think it may be related to increased volcanic activity on the floor of the Pacific Ocean.

[phantom power]

21. The meteorologists are still attempting to frame their

predictions in terms of the old norms. All the recent weird weather is being described as "exceptions." It's probably professionally unacceptable to say "Hey, everything is changing, all at once, but I can't explain to you exactly how, since nobody really knows yet."

[NNadir]

22. Yeah, they have to be professional.

Some though I'm sure, are privately throwing their professionalism to the wind, hurrincane force and otherwise, and muttering, "oh shit." Some I think are not even doing so privately anymore.

[hatrack]

3. Pay no attention to those record high water temperatures!

Look! Over there! It's Lindsay Lohan!

[kdmorris]

4. It is my understanding

that SST's do not have an effect on FREQUENCY of tropical systems, but they do have an effect on the INTENSITY. That is from all the stuff I've read, but I still don't really understand why if the SST's are higher, there isn't a greater chance for a hurricane to form. But until I see otherwise, I'll have to take the word of the scientists who say that frequency is not affected by SST.

However, I'm not sure that it matters if you have CAT4 and CAT5 storms making landfall. One CAT5 storm can likely do just as much damage as quite a few CAT1 storms. The mere fact that the GOM was hot enough to support 3 CAT5 storms (one of which set the record for all time lowest pressure in the Atlantic basin, and was formed near Halloween) in one year is scary enough.

[hatrack]

7. Exactly right - higher water temps = enhanced potential energy

As far as the frequency of storms, that's much less straightforward - too many variables to establish a relatively simple straight-line causality.

[NNadir]

12. Lindsay Lohan?

Where?

As usual, you cut to the important stuff, the remake of Herbie.

[hatrack]

13. Good to know there's SOMEBODY on this board who knows what's important!!!

:toast:

[Dead_Parrot]

15. The pair of you need shooting...

Underworld 2 is out soon. Kate Beckinsale in leather... Mmmm...

Wind? What wind?

[hatrack]

16. Whoa! Kate Beckinsale in LEATHER?!?!?

What deforestation? What war? What ozone depletion?

:hi:

[NNadir]

17. OK, now I'm going to have to google Kate Beckinsale and see who she is.

I'm always a few months behind on the 15 minutes of fame and the babe du jour, even though I freely concede that the babe du jour is more important than New Orleans.

[Dead_Parrot]

19. To paraphrase Douglas Adams...*

"As much as I love my wife, there are some fantasies that only Kate Beckinsale in leather can fufill..."



So now you know... :)

(* DNA was originally talking about the Dagenham Girl Pipers, BTW)

Edit: Sorry, what was the question? Something about the weather, I think...

[NNadir]

20. That's a great shot.

I think. Or shoot.

I certainly wouldn't want to focus under circumstances like these on the bullet points, I guess I'm blown away. Hopefully this won't trigger any further responses from anyone, but I must point out that this stock photo can still barrel some people over. She's a blast, right on target I'd say. I probably should aim higher than this commentary, so I'll stop before anyone is required to recoil. The calibre of these puns is very low anyway, and I'm clearly gunning for trouble.

[stop the bleeding]

5. We are sooooo storm weary on the Gulf coast and I live in an area

that has had only minor scrapes with Hurricanes.

Oh well, when June gets here we will have to go through the drills until December. Price to pay for living in the Sunshine State.

[catmandu57]

6. We won't handle the new storms any better

I think there is still damage in Florida from 04 that hasn't been repaired. The gulf will still be attempting to recover when the hurricane season starts, but, this being an election year they will probably be quicker with a dollar.
I know it's a bad scene for the people in the region, but, if I were a reptile i'd be having night sweats about the upcoming storms, especially ones that come close to election day.

[warrior1]

8. We're having El Nino type weather now.

Here's the report from MSNBC.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10632481/

[warrior1]

9. I took my Sara

down to the river yesterday to have a run and the river is as high as I've ever seen. The landmarks we walked along are all under the water. It's also moving pretty fast.

It looks like 1998 all over again. Sure glad I got my flood insurance.

[hatrack]

10. Did you happen to hear NPR yesterday evening?

There as a fascinating story about the new heights to which city, state and federal governments have piled the bullshit.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5072337

Ray Nagin is pleading with New Orleanians to return home, pledging that they'll be safe by the time next hurricane season hits. State and federal "authorities" are saying the same thing, promising that the levee system will be repaired and structurally sound by next June 1st - the start of hurricane season.

Just one problem - it's freakin' impossible. Engineers estimate that to repair, let alone rebuild the NO-area levees to a level at which they could purportedly "withstand" a Cat 4 or 5 will take between 10 and 20 YEARS. The damage to the system was massive and widespread, and extends through hundreds of miles of levees, canals, banks, riprap and other flood control stuctures, and it is going to take DECADES to replace.

But you'd never know that to listen to the Corps of Engineers, the state government or the mayor.

Unbelievable.

[brokensymmetry]

18. Repaired? LOL!

With higher water temperatures, we're going to get some severe hurricanes in the area. So the repairs achieved so far will need to be re-repaired; a process that will be repeated unto exhaustion of the treasury.

I think NO will not be rebuilt. Not ever...

[Javaman]

11. Oh come on folks, everyone knows god is punishing us...

for all our gas burning, oil sucking, country invading, torture inducing, constitution ignoring ways...

give me a praise jesus!!!

[gulfcoastliberal]

14. This is why I want to flee back to California ASAP

I went through hurricane Ivan - and let me tell you, if it had been a Katrina strength, I'd be dead right now. I hunkered down in my condo - a concrete and steel structure. I went over to Mississippi yesterday and all the concrete buildings near the beach are completely destroyed - I strongl believe they are STILL searching for remains. I'll post the pictures over in the Hurricane Survivor forum soon. I saw people in the white "bunny suits" behind the destroyed Wal Mart in Long Beach. And they are tearingup the sand on the beaches - I'm sure to check for remains. I'm done with being in a hurricane zone.