Indonesia, the world's largest LNG producer, can't make quota

[jmcgowanjm]

Indonesia, the world's largest liquefied natural gas
producer, is faced with having to buy from rival countries.

Indonesia's second LNG facility, at Bontang in East
Kalimantan, has no spare capacity to help out Arun,
which has had to scale back output because of the
decline in gas volumes delivered from ExxonMobil's
nearby fields.


http://www.iranoilgas.com/news/current/jan108.asp

[hatrack]

1. Well, well, well . . .

(Or should that be dry well, dry well, dry well?)

Interesting, in that ASPO's projections gave 2004 as the year for Indonesia's production peak.

[jmcgowanjm]

2. yep, that's what I'm thinkin' n/t

[htuttle]

3. "Everyday you take your bucket to the well...."

"...one day the bottom gonna drop out."

-- Old Jamaican proverb

[hunter]

8. So, do you have any speculations about Algeria?

:scared:

[jmcgowanjm]

11. The reason France killed 10M Algerians

http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/edc/countries/Algeria.asp

[hatrack]

4. Forbes Confirms 300,000 Ton Drop From Last Year's Total Shipments

JAKARTA, Jan 23 (Reuters) - "Indonesia will ship 25 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan, Taiwan and South Korea in 2004, compared with 25.3 million tonnes last year, an official with oil and gas watchdog BP Migas said on Friday.

"Our LNG export will be about 25 million tonnes in 2004 to fulfil our contract," said Djoko Harsono, BP Migas marketing division chief.

"Indonesia once exported 29 million tonnes of LNG in 1999, because of many spot sales at that time," he added.

EDIT

Indonesia has seen a decline in gas supplies to its LNG plants at Bontang in East Kalimantan, and at Arun in Aceh province, local media have reported. Indonesia has eight LNG plants in Bontang with capacity of 22.5 million tonnes and four plants in Arun with a 10 million-tonne capacity."

EDIT

[jmcgowanjm]

5. thanx for confirmation, Hatrack

Once the world has consumed 50% of the reserves, the production level cannot be maintained.

if there is no bread and no flour available you will starve even though the farmer plans to grow a big crop of corn next year.

At best, it could be 10 years (100 divided by 11Gb), namely 2011.
At worst, it could be under two and a half years (50 divided
by 21Gb), namely mid 2004. The most probable date on 1000 Gb reserves and 15 Gb/year net decline is 2005.

With Shell cutting Proven Reserves( and they're not
the only book cookers here),Skikda cut, Indonesia not
making quota, we have seen the
peak.

[happyslug]

6. You are confusing oil and Natural Gas

Oil production follows a "normal" statisticial bell shape curve i.e. Production increases each year till 50% of total production is produced, than it falls each year folowing the bell curve. Thus when you hit the 50% point yearly production falls, but you still have oil for years (sometimes Decades) afterwards.

On the other hand Natural Gas (and that is what we are talking about) does NOT follow such a statistical bell curve. You produce at the same level each year till the well runs out. Natural Gas Production is NOT a curve but a cliff. This is what makes this Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) production so frightening, how many fields have just stop producing?

[hatrack]

7. This is correct - oil & gas follow very different curves

Thanks for the input, HappySlug!

[Codeblue]

9. Well at least...

the conservatives may find a reason in this to start persuing alternate forms of energy.

[jmcgowanjm]

10. Yes, LNG is worse in terms of predictive value

That's one reason I'm watching it closely.

I mean, you don't handle an oil field right, you
lose the propellant. You don't handle a gas field or the
product ( see Skikda) right,
you potentially lose everything.

And gas fields do just cliff drop.

I don't think there should be any flaring
at the well. How much energy is being lost there.
Note: I do have friends who are/were oiljocks and they have
explained the reasons for flaring.

This post is partly about LNG being a transition fuel and
an ex. of how technology has to ramp up, get
closer to perfection, less redundancy in the system.

When we need less/more reliable tech, fewer
bad cosequences w/ failure and more redundancy.
http://www.odac-info.org/

[jmcgowanjm]

12. BP/OPEC reports reserves, failing to backdate the revisions.

http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/oilg/p0070.htm

I have just discovered that LNG is NGL
in Europe/Elsewhere. I am getting new info here and will post
later.

[jmcgowanjm]

13. And why Indonesia was so intent on keeping Timor

HOUSTON, Jan. 16 -- First gas is flowing from the Bayu-
Undan natural gas and liquids field, reported participant
Santos Ltd. Wednesday.

The second stage—the $1.5 billion LNG development project—
involves transporting residual gas to Wickham
Point at Darwin in Australia's Northern Territory and
processing it into LNG for export to Japan.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?Section=OnlineArticles&ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=196580