Times-Picayune - Maybe 10 Years Before Loss Of Lousiana Coast Becomes Irreversible

[hatrack]

The satellite map in Kerry St. Pe's office shows the great sweep of marshes protecting New Orleans from the Gulf in bright red, a warning they will vanish by the year 2040, putting the sea at the city?s doorstep. Coastal scientists produced the map three years ago. They now know they got it wrong.

"People think we still have 20, 30, 40 years left to get this done. They're not even close," said St. Pe, director of the Barataria-Terrebonne National Estuary Program, which seeks to save one of the coast's most threatened and strategically vital zones. ?Ten years is how much time we have left ? if that." That new time frame for when the Gulf could reach New Orleans' suburbs sharply reduces projections that have stood for more than three decades. Unless the state rapidly reverses the land loss, coastal scientists say, by the middle of the next decade the cost of repair likely will be too daunting for Congress to accept - and take far too long to implement under the current approval process.

Interviews with the leading coastal scientists, as well as state and federal officials, brought no disagreement with that stark new prognosis. And while the predictions stand at odds with nearly a decade of official optimism, scientists said the death and destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina prompted them to voice private concerns that have been growing in recent years. "I think that shocked us as much as any other group," said Robert Twilley, director of Louisiana State University's Gulf restoration initiative who has worked on the issue for years. "I think our concern now is that we may have contributed to false optimism."

Unless, within 10 years, the state begins creating more wetlands than it is losing - a task that will require billions of dollars in complex and politically sensitive projects - scientists said a series of catastrophes could begin to unfold over the next decade.

EDIT

http://www.nola.com/speced/lastchance/t-p/index.ssf?/speced/lastchance/articles/day1.html

[phantom power]

1. Hmmm. Where could we get a few hundred billion dollars?

Hmmmmm.

[Dead_Parrot]

2. Medicare? nt

[phantom power]

3. Right. Or maybe we just disband all those damned useless public schools.

[terisan]

4. Oil money from drilling in the Gulf ?

I believe Louisiana is now to get billions from the new agreement with Federal government on sharing of Gulf drilling revenues. Will it be enough?

[phantom power]

5. I was thinking "end the Iraq war" But oil revenues would be a nice touch.

[hatrack]

6. And the more they drill & pump, the bigger the revenue stream

Then, when we burn all that oil and gas, we'll . . .

Oh. Sorry, never mind!

[Dead_Parrot]

7. ...need to make the pie higher? nt

[hatrack]

8. Yeah, that's it! And we'll all be able to put food on our families.

We all know how hard THAT is.`

[XemaSab]

9. What's the date on this article?

1953? :shrug:

[Porcupine]

10. Does anyone believe they'll make these repairs?

I just can't see our current congress finding the spine to fund these repairs. We have absolutely no leadership in Washington on climate change issues. We can't even make the cheap changes that would make a difference, no CAFE standards upgrades or carbon taxes are even considered.

The only way the wetlands are going to get recharged is if somebody blows the levees during the spring flood. That isn't going to happen.

[XemaSab]

11. They would have to remove every lock and dam in what, 25 states?

Saving Lousiana would hurt commerce. :eyes:

[hatrack]

12. They'd have to deconstruct every Pick-Sloan dam on the upper Missouri

Of course, there IS no barge traffic west of St. Louis beyond the odd asphalt or gravel boat when water levels are just right, but the big reservoirs upstream are much of the basis for the sport fishing and boating industries in the Dakotas and beyond, so don't hold your breath.

[XemaSab]

13. Oh yeah, Joachim and Hank have to compete in the bass tourney...

:eyes:

[Porcupine]

14. You're saying the big muddy isn't muddy enough?

You're saying that even if we did let the river flow over the flats and drop silt there isn't enough mud in the water due to upstream damming.

Well shit. It was a nice planet while it lasted.

[Kolesar]

15. I think the levees and canals in the Mississippi River delta are the problem

Not the silt trapping dams far upstream.

Per your more fundamental question, I just don't see the US building a super-engineered flood control system to protect against Category 5 hurricanes and against a rise in sea level.

[hatrack]

18. It's probably both - Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe et. al. have trapped plenty of silt

But levees and the way they've trapped substantial amounts of runoff at (in some cases) higher elevations than the land they're ostensibly protecting are definitely part of the problem.

[cosmicdot]

16. a too late to recommend kick n/m

[LuckyLib]

17. A wonderful book that explores this and the loss of the Cajun fishing life in Louisiana

is Bayou Farewell by Mike Tidwell. Amazing analysis of what oil has done to the land there, and how life will never be the same.

[Morgana LaFey]

19. Okay, now I understand -- from a cosmic point of view, if you will --

the "why" behind Katrina: get out now, in an orderly fashion, and don't come back. Make new lives elsewhere.