Hamas insists it will continue battle

[GoesTo11]

"Hamas reiterated its determination to continue its attacks against Israel despite the possibility of an Israeli cabinet decision on Saturday night to accept a unilateral cease-fire after three weeks of fighting in the Gaza Strip.

In two separate locations Saturday Hamas spokesmen said that the group would keep up the fight against the Jewish state.

In Cairo, Beirut-based Osama Hamdan declared that the group's delegation arriving in Egypt has "nothing new to offer. We are not going to go back to the first point in the discussions and dialogue. Either we hear what we want or the result will be continuing the confrontation on the ground."

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1232100165551&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[bemildred]

1. Yeah, I didn't think that was going to work, but you never know.

That's the thing about unilateral moves, nobody has to cooperate.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

2. And the end result of Israel's war on Gaza?

From the Angry Arab:

"I have just returned from the Middle East and witnessed how Israel's assault on Gaza is radicalizing mainstream Muslim opinion. Shown endlessly on Arab and Muslim television stations, the massive killing of civilians is fueling rage against Israel and its superpower patron, the United States, among mainstream and moderate voices who previously believed in co-existence with the Jewish state. Now, they are questioning their basic assumptions and raising doubts about Israel's future integration into the region. Many professionals, both Christian and Muslim Arabs, previously critical of Hamas, are bitter about what they call Israel's "barbaric conduct" against Palestinian noncombatants, particularly women and children. No one I have encountered believes Israel's narrative that this is a war against Hamas, not the Palestinian people. A near consensus exists among Arabs and Muslims that Israel is battering the Palestinian population in an effort to force it to revolt against Hamas, just as it tried to force the Lebanese people to revolt against Hezbollah in the summer of 2006. But Hezbollah weathered that Israeli storm, acquired a sturdier immune system and became the most powerful institution in Lebanon. In so doing it shattered Israeli deterrence, delivered a blow to US Mideast policy and expanded the influence of Iran, Hezbollah's main supporter in the region.In my recent travels I was struck by the widespread popular support for Hamas--from college students and street vendors to workers and intellectuals. Very few ventured criticism of Hamas, and many said they felt awed by the fierce resistance put forward by its fighters. Israel's onslaught on Gaza has effectively silenced critics of Hamas and politically legitimized the militant resistance movement in the eyes of many previously skeptical Palestinians and Muslims. Regardless of how this war ends, Hamas will likely emerge as a more powerful political force than before and will likely top Fatah, the ruling apparatus of President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority."


http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/01/unintended-consequences.html

Can we please all remember exactly what radicalized the REST of the Palestinian population?

And really, wasn't this Israel's goal all along? To ensure that it NEVER have a partner for peace? To force the west to continue the War on radical Islam? To strengthen those ties that bind?

[bemildred]

5. I was thinking about it last night, between attempts to sleep.

One of the striking things about this war is the rarity of dead soldiers. It's hard to be sure with the lack of news coverage, but that is sort of the drift out here in TV land. Despite a week or more of "intense combat" "deep in Gaza City" with "fierce resistance" we have very few dead IDF soldiers and an unknown but not apparently large number of dead Palestinian fighters of uncertain affiliation. It seems fair to think that Hamas had not made any attempt at concerted and active resistance. They have used lots of passive defense, booby-traps, but have not apparently taken a stand anywhere. Since they were estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters, one must assume they still have most of that force intact.

[The Magistrate]

14. One Possibility, Sir

Is that 'the tens of thousands of fighters' are not really up to the work....

[bemildred]

15. That's one way to put it.

Getting your ass blown away for nothing has never seemed very attractive to me. It could also be the case that the "tens of thousands of fighters" number has only a loose relation to reality. But it's vanilla guerrilla war tactics not to confront the enemy unless you have an overwhelming advantage, so it does not really seem surprising that a "force conservation" strategy would be adopted.

I was mainly taken with that observation because of the heated rhetoric coming from both sides. Baghdad Bob indeed.

[Vegasaurus]

16. The stupidity of Hamas

was confronting their enemy with no advantage at all.

What were they expecting?

A picnic?

[bemildred]

17. I'm pretty sure they expected pretty much what they got.

The military outcome was never much in doubt, and the IDF hasn't done anything startlingly new. Of course, reason will only take you so far in these things.

[The Magistrate]

18. The Claimed Numbers, Sir, Seem To Run At 15,000 To 20,000, At Least In Print At the Start

So 'tens of thousands' probably starts with an exaggeration already.

It has never seemed likely to me there was a very high level of training involved; Hamas is a very different organization than Hezbollah, which approached regular standards in the quality of the men it fielded. One of the great fragilities of partisan irregulars is that, given the absence of organized discipline and training, the casualties in any sort of a fight they undertake will fall disproportionately on the best fighting men in the body, as they will be about the only ones who stick it.

It does not seem to me there is much substance behind the claims of 'fierce fighting' emanating from either side, though there is certainly a good deal of 'fierce firing' from the Israelis.

[bemildred]

19. I've seen "10 to 20"; but who counted, I ask, and when?

And even if you had that many, what would you do with them? Besides get a bunch of them killed? I do suspect some fraction are really "cops", not "soldiers" anyway.

By paragraph:

Yes.

Yes.

And yes.

[The Magistrate]

20. A Good Question, Sir

Both Israeli and Hamas spokespersons have been cited, but both have an interest in making the number seem more imposing. It is certainly a number towards the outer edges of what is feasible in the population. A majority of the population there is under-age, even by child soldier standards, and there must be some old folks as well, so just going by rules of thumb, it is hard to see how more than a fifth of the Gaza population could be men of military age, which means one is talking about a claimed force that approaches every tenth man under arms.

We may part company on our attitude towards police; in circumstances like this, my inclination is to view any armed body as simply party militia on public pay-roll....

[bemildred]

21. I'm not inferring they are immune, or whatever about their status.

I'm sure you remember my views on that. I'm just saying what you said about training in another form.

[The Magistrate]

22. Point Taken, My Friend

Sadly, they would probably be better trained than the rest, though....

The whole thing is simply too damned depressing to think about for very long.

[bemildred]

23. Indeed Sir, I find frequent long walks help me settle down.

Makes one long to re-invent the species.

[Lithos]

37. To complicate the equation

I read somewhere that Hamas does employ soldiers whose ages would qualify them as "children" in the eyes of the UN. I'm not talking about the 8-12 year olds seen in provocative videos, but those who are aged 16 and 17.

L-

[The Magistrate]

40. Having Been Rather Wild At Sixteen, Sir, Myself

My inclination is to consider that 'military age'....

[Lithos]

41. I would too for many things

The last British WWI vet tried enlisting at age 15 and only the actions of his parents prevented his enrollment. He had to wait until 18 when he could sign his own name. There were many instances in up through WW II where boys of such an age were actively enlisted and pushed to the front lines.

L-

[ProgressiveProfessor]

24. Or the original estimates were well overblown

Irregular forces like Hamas (and Fatah...) are not like a regular army. Not a lot of information on forces structure either. The high number of some 20K was more likely less than half of that in terms or full time/serious fighters, some of whom may have been taken out in the early air strikes or caught in the tunnels.

Its very hard for irregulars to kill an enemy as well prepared as the IDF. Under those circumstance, that there have not been that many pitched battles or even larger ambushes is not surprising. Also material losses of the IDF have not been publicized. Early on Hamas was bragging about new weapons including new AT weapons. Against the Merkava Mrk 4 they would need them. Again, lack of data to draw any meaty conclusions.


A wild card are the tunnels. If they were of the scale that was being trumpeted, many fighters could be down there. Haven't heard much from the Israelis about the tunnels. Assumption is that they are sealing entrances as they find them. Depending on how well they were designed, that could be a minor inconvenience to a death sentence for those who are in them.

[bemildred]

25. Indeed, uncertainty abounds.

I have speculated about whether the IDF is suppressing casualty figures, I can see certain points of view from which it would be the right thing to do, but I am not willing to make any inferences about it, we'll have to wait and see what dribbles out.

There was another story here today that said 20K Hamas "fighters" and about 2.5% attrition of those. Of course, those are "estimates" most likely based on nothing at all.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

27. It is next to impossible for the IDF to supress their casualty reports

Israel is way too small a nation and army. There might be a small delay, but they can not be hidden

[bemildred]

28. Certainly in anything but the short run.

But their military censor has amazing powers and is willing to use them, and I don't believe anybody would get in trouble for a delay while the "war" is going on. But as I said, I'm not willing to draw any conclusions, the figures might well be accurate enough as they are.

[bemildred]

29. I mean, you said: "Also material losses of the IDF have not been publicized."

I was responding to that, perhaps incorrectly, but that's where I was coming from.

[The Magistrate]

30. There Are Some Odd Design Features In The Merkaava, Sir

That give the crew unusually good chances at survival if the machine wrecked.

[bemildred]

32. Yes, I had considered that.

In fact I vaguely remember reading about that some years back.

Not running around wildly in the desert either, and keeping the combat engineers busy. Slow and methodical about moving around, as far as one can tell.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

33. As does the M1, LeClerc and other western tanks

The Soviet and Chinese designs lack much of those kind of niceties.

[The Magistrate]

38. They Go A Little Farther, Sir, In The Merkaava

The forward mounted engine serves as an extra buffer from usual combat angles, and only diesel fuel is employed.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

45. Thats mostly for armor battles or serious AT weapons, which have not happened since 73

Urban & irregular units are more rear/side/top attacks.

The engine configuration is also a detriment in some scenarios.

[bemildred]

46. In The Magistrate's defense, I have to say that I remember, back in 2006,

reading stories, that said extra effort is put into survivability of the crew, in Israeli Armor, and that a performance/cost penalty was attached to that. Don't remember and did not care at the time about the details.

[The Magistrate]

48. He Is Right, Sir, that It Is Concentrated On Protection From the Front

And it is also true that in urban settings, attacks from other directions are at least the intent of ambushing forces. But these intentions do not always prove out, any more than anyone else's plans do. The use of diesel fuel remains a major safeguard: the stuff does burn, but it does not do so with rapid fireball effect, and it is usually fire that kills a crew in a disabled tank, and that detonates ammunition, however it is protected. The vehicle does pay some costs for the protective design features: it is a relatively slow beast, and would be accordingly at some disadvantage in a fluid campaign against opposing armor. As it is, it is pretty much used like an assault gun, operating at infantry pace, and this does not much matter.

Modern stuff, as you know, is not my principal field, but some years ago a striking article on the design came to hand, and it has stuck through the years....

[ProgressiveProfessor]

50. No defense required

Western tanks all place a very high value on crew survival. It adds cost and weight to the tank but no additional combat value. The Merkava took a different twist on that concept. Its one uniquely suited to their tactical situations whereas the western nations armor is more universal. Front engined tanks are not new, but are not the norm either. In 1973 the Sagger AT missiles munched a lot of IDF armor and got a lot of crews killed from frontal strikes. The Merkava was designed to address those kind of things. However those were more open desert battles. In urban scenarios, many AT weapons won't have time arm. Also irregulars tend to use RPGs and other lighter weapons that will not pierce the armor of most tanks, regardless of engine placement.

In summary the Merkava is a somewhat specialized platform. I don't think its crew considerations are that much more than other major tanks.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

31. Those will come out too, perhaps later

The Israelis, not unlike the US, tends to have the need to flagellate itself in public. There will be studies and stories, and analysis for the next several years about this incursion in Israel, not unlike Lebanon.

[bemildred]

34. You just can't have too many Blue Ribbon Commissions, can you?

Although I do generally approve of public self-flagellation, sometimes it's the only accountability you get for these things?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

36. Just look at the pages of Haaretz and the JPost, the articles are from all points of the compass

Look at the discussions and reports after Lebanon. It will be the same for Gaza.

[bemildred]

39. I do. nt

[tekisui]

3. What good is a unilateral cease-fire?

It looks like they will be right back where they started from, except with Israel in Gaza, now.

[GoesTo11]

4. Don't you think it's better than no cease fire at all?

[bemildred]

6. A cease fire is a good thing.

The question is though, what happens if the IDF declares a unilateral cease fire and Hamas keeps right on firing rockets into Israel? Prediction is a mugs game, but that's my guess as to what happens next.

[GoesTo11]

8. Reasonable guess

since Hamas has said it will continue fighting. Reading between the lines of the highly mixed messages coming out of Egypt and the West Bank, what happens next looks like a mini regional alliance of Egypt, the PA, and Israel, mediated by the US, keeping a stranglehold on Hamas in Gaza with the goal of returning the PA to control there.

[tekisui]

10. From this point, I guess that is seen as the best case scenario.

I am doubtful that Fatah will be able to fill the power vacuum, if their is one.

[ohio2007]

13. They are not accepted nor are they allowed back into Gaza is what you are saying

For Hamas, it was one man,
one vote,
one time.

We will see how it plays out during the summer campaign whistle stops. For those who care to follow Palestinian democracy in practice.

[tekisui]

9. To me, it just exposes Israel's ruse of motivation for this war.

Their pretense was to stop the rockets and/or destroy Hamas. They have killed several key leaders of Hamas, but I sure they have been replaced, and the rockets are still being fired. The only objective Israel seems to have achieved is the 'intimidation factor' which may very well be counter with the 'outrage factor' of Gazans who watched their families and cities be destroyed.

[GoesTo11]

11. Nah, just shows that the international pressure had an effect

They figured - or were told - that they have to stop before Obama's inauguration. This is as far as they got - I think they were hoping they could topple Hamas by now.

On your other point, I doubt the key leaders who were killed can be easily replaced. Someone who has been doing this for 20 years has contacts, relationships, power, and knowledge that disappear when they die. You can put in a new person in with the same title, but it takes years to learn the ropes. My conspiracy theory is that the motivation for killing people like Siam is to help the PA in the Palestinian civil war (not that this will work).

[tekisui]

7. No, it is a positive development.

Hopefully it will ease suffering and allow space for negotiations. It just seems futile to have a one-sided cease-fire. I hope it holds.

[ohio2007]

12. ]"Just because they are democratically elected doesn't mean they practice democracy."

just an interesting quote from another thread on "Hamas", the duely elected representative of the people of Palestine;

"Just because they are democratically elected doesn't mean they practice democracy."

Doesn't a one side cease fire mean the other smells victory and presses the attack ? The circle of violence continues.



There can be only one conclusion, only one lasting conclusion;
unconditional surrender

jmo

[ProgressiveProfessor]

35. To me its a means to see if Hamas will continue to shoot rockets and mortars

If they do, then Israel regains some measure of political capital and can continue to attack

If they don't, Israel shows that what they did was needed to stop the rockets.


I see it as a no lose for Israel.

[ohio2007]

49. define "insanity"

nt

[pelsar]

26. nothings changed.....maybe

outside of the 1000+ Palestinian dead and massive destruction to gaza...hamas will surly shoot off some kassams/grads as soon as the "cease fire" takes affect just to prove that they can.....

or...behind the scenes, within the internal politics of the Palestinians/israelis there have been some changes....never before has such destruction being sown on the Palestinians (outside of sept 1970 jordan). Those in the westbank have expressed conflicting views of the events in gaza....on one hand not to sad that "they're getting what they deserved" for kicking out fatah...on the other hand massive destruction and death by the israelis to their own....and the fact that they dont want israeli tanks back on their streets.....

[ProgressiveProfessor]

42. This plays right into Israel's hands

[azurnoir]

43. The entire unilateral ceasefire seems a political game

Israel pulls troop out, stops bombing that is all the Palestinians get nothing there as far as I have read not even the the assurance that Israel will allow the humanitarian aid that it is currently allowing to continue and now Israel gets the added bonus of US military involvement exactly how or where is unknown. The Palestinians or Hamas get nothing we keep reading in the M$M about Hamas demands but those are never enumerated and left purposely IMO to the imagination.However this is a post from yesterday that lists those demands none of which seem too "out there" except for #2 which would come eventually

Scurrilous 01-16-09 06:08 AM
Response to Original message
17. Report: Hamas ready to begin conditional Gaza truce on Saturday

<snip>

"Hamas is prepared to accept a conditional cease-fire with Israel in the Gaza-Strip starting on Saturday, the al-Sharq al-Awset daily reported on Friday.

According to the report, Hamas has set five conditions for the cease-fire:

1. The reciprocal truce would begin on Saturday and be followed by the immediate transfer of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

2. The Israel Defense Forces must pull all of its troops out of the coastal territory within the first week of the truce.

3. The flow of trade in and out of the Gaza Strip must be renewed and monitored by observers from Egypt, Europe, and Turkey.

4. The Rafah crossing must be reopened and supervised by Palestinian Authority security forces and international observers, until a Palestinian unity government has been established and can take its place.

5. The truce would be instated for one-year with an option for renewal."

more

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=124&topic_id=246921&mesg_id=246921

[ProgressiveProfessor]

44. Either way, Israel comes out ahead

If Hamas keeps shooting rockets, Israel was justified and could/should continue

IF Hamas does not keep shooting rockets, Israel was successful and it needed to be done.


Given what the Hamaz leadership in Damascus are saying. I think its going to be the former and more blood will be shed

[azurnoir]

47. So you condone what Israel has done

as could be infered from these statements

If Hamas keeps shooting rockets, Israel was justified and could/should continue

IF Hamas does not keep shooting rockets, Israel was successful and it needed to be done.

that is nice to know, it must also be nice to claim the "moral high ground" when the civilian death toll get uncomfortable
as I said a political game

[ProgressiveProfessor]

51. Not what I said. I said no matter what the outcome of a unilatteral ceasefire Israel will

gain in some manner

[azurnoir]

52. By involving the US military it already has n/t

[ProgressiveProfessor]

53. In a short term unilatteral ceasefire?

[azurnoir]

54. Yes in any term and cease fire has nothing to do with it n/t