Shin Bet, MI at odds over Hamas terror strategy

[Scurrilous]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/374370.html

<snip>

"The Israel Defense Forces' Military Intelligence division believes that over the last 100 days, Hamas has refrained from carrying out terror strikes against Israeli civilians west of the Green Line. Hamas's last attack within the Green Line, according to MI, took place at Cafe Hillel in Jerusalem, on September 9, 2003.


Over the past three and a half months, Hamas has focused its attacks and attempted attacks on soldiers - both in the territories and in Israel - and settlers. MI's research department, headed by Brigadier General Yossi Kupperwasser, views this as a significant change in the attack strategy of the Islamic group, which until recently viewed all Israelis, wherever they may be, as legitimate targets.

The change, MI explains, stems from Hamas' sensitivity toward Palestinian public opinion, which has become increasingly opposed recently to attacks on Israeli civilians."

<snip>

" MI officials believe that Hamas's relative surge in popularity among the Palestinians, together with a parallel slide in the strength of the ruling party, Fatah, is encouraging Hamas leaders to reflect the new popular trend - a gradual backing off from suicide attacks in Israel."

[bemildred]

1. It's hard to sort it out.

Could be the wall.

Could be a lowered level of effort. Had a story a couple days
ago about a decline in deaths on both sides since the hudna.

Most of what attacks there have been lately, that I've seen stories
about, have not seemed very competent.

Could be this change in Hamas strategy is part of it. They are
taking on better prepared targets this way.

Hmmmm.

[drdon326]

2. Could be hamas wants peace??

nan....wtf was i thinking.

never mind

[bemildred]

3. Strictly a guess, I expect they want political power.

That's what the story suggests anyway.

[bluesoul]

4. Saying Hamas wants peace

is like saying Sharon wants peace. Both is ridiculous..

[bemildred]

8. They all want peace.

Peace on their terms.

[drdon326]

5. You know bemildred...

there will come a time, in the not so distant future where
the pa/plo will have to deal with these thugs after the
wall is complete.

Should be fun to watch.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

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[bemildred]

7. It may well be the case that Hamas will be dealt with.

But I don't expect it will be done by Arafat and his minions.

[bemildred]

10. A few thoughts for you.

Arafat has no incentive that I can see to go after Hamas,
the enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that, and even
if he did succeed, what would it gain him but an offer that
he has already rejected, or something not even that good.

There is no reason to think the suffering of his people is
going to sway him at this point.

There is an excellent chance he would lose, should he attempt it.

You cannot kill an idea, it must be discredited. And you cannot
discredit such an idea as Hamas, a central pillar of which is
violent resistance, with more violence.

I don't mean to defend Hamas here, just trying to understand what
is likely to happen, and what not.