Could "October Surprise" Be Israel-Palestinian Ceasefire?

[AmericanErrorist]

The respected London based Arabic daily Al Hayat reports that an Arab intelligence agency has been cooperating with the Mossad, providing it with significant and sensitive information about Hamas, especially its international activities.

...A western intelligence source hints that the Arab country in question may be Egypt. It claims that President Mubarak is gradually putting an audacious new strategy into place, which, if successful could provide credible foundations for a new Middle East power structure.

According to the intelligence source, the strategy is based on the assumption that Cairo can initially wean Damascus and the Palestinian terrorist organization from their alliance with Iran. The second stage is then to get Iran itself on board, after isolating it and leaving the Shiite Persians with no allies of any significance in the Sunni-Arab world.

Success of his endeavor would make the region a much friendlier place for the United States. Failure, he fears, would bring about the untimely withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and significantly weaken America’s status as a superpower.

Mubarak is using a sophisticated blend of sticks and carrots to get the Palestinians and Syria on board. The cooperation with the Mossad against Ham(a)s is to ensure that if it becomes necessary, the stick will be long, hard and sharp...

The Egyptian strategists believe that if they succeed in isolating Iran, leaving the Shiite Persians with no significant allies in the Arab-Sunni world, they will prefer joining the pax-Americana to standing alone against it.
Well seasoned in the evanescent nature of Middle East peacemaking and diplomacy, Mubarak and al Baz have set a precise timeline for the ripening of their multilateral project, precisely one week before the November 2 presidential election in America.

They reason that the guerrilla, terrorist war will peak then in Iraq. With this heavy cloud over his campaign, Bush will be badly in need of a ray of light. The announcement of a 12-month ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict after four years of warfare could lift his chances immeasurably at the twelfth hour.

The Egyptians also figure that a week will not be long enough for the ceasefire to break down, a predictable outcome given the track record of truces in this region. But by the time its does, Bush will be home and dry. He will also owe Mubarak big.

What will the Egyptian president expect as his reward? Our sources suspect he will not be satisfied with anything less than White House backing for his son, Jimmy Mubarak’s appointment to succeed him as president of Egypt.

http://www.maarivintl.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=printArticle&articleID=11162

[bemildred]

1. Seems unlikely to me.

The supposition that a "cease fire" would help Shrub seems a bit fanciful.
I would think he will be looking for a more effectual "ray of light" .

[shoopnyc123]

2. I don't know but I know ours will be...

...THE BIG DOG. BUBBA. THE CLINTON FACTOR.

[Gman]

3. I doubt it because

1) Sharon's government would rather build a wall and
2) There would be no world support for anything Sharon wanted in an agreement.

[Matilda]

4. An October cease-fire would make Bush look good

and he'd probably take full credit for the whole thing. It would
also leave Kerry with nowhere to go, since he has made the mistake
of backing Sharon and his wall, and has made no statement on how
he might work to achieve a lasting peace.

I doubt it would last long - neither Sharon nor Arafat can be
trusted too far, and neither would ever trust the other. Some
fanatic on one side or the other will break out, and it will all
be on again.

But when you read the whole article, it becomes clear that Bush
would probably benefit in the short term, but Mubarak would gain
in the long term, no matter what the final result.

Very interesting article indeed.

[bemildred]

5. Who can say?

The question is would enough voters care enough to
a. go vote where they would not otherwise (not likely)
b. change their vote to Shrub from Kerry (you got me, but I'm skeptical)

This is not to say Shrub and his minions might not try some
such thing.

[number6]

6. no

..