Question:
We have conflicting reports in the US about the Shia and Sunni putting aside their historical differences to team up against the Americans. Do you see this happening, and what do you believe the eventual outcome will be.
US policy makers claim that an American withdrawal would only result in a widescale civil war between these two factions and the Kurds in the north. Do you believe this will be the case? Are the Iraqis in a situation now where they are dammed any way they turn?
Answer:
I do see this happening. During the siege of Najaf, collections for aid at Sunni mosques were organized, as well as resistance fighters from Fallujah who provided guns and supplies to the Mehdi Army there. During the siege of Fallujah last April, Shia weighed heavily in donating aid, and participated in a non-violent action that pushed supplies into Fallujah through a US military cordon.
The Shia/Sunni rift is largely a CIA generated myth. There are countless tribes and marriages alike that are both Shia/Sunni. There are mosques here where they pray together.There is the possibility of war if the Kurds go independent, but the more likely possibility of that war would be Turkey invading Kurdistan before any Shia/Sunni action would occur regarding this.
Remember the Arab proverb; "Me against my brother. Me and my brother against my cousin. Me, my brother and cousin against the stranger."
The Iraqis are in a situation where they are damned as long as the US continues to occupy and subvert their country, as they have been doing.
http://www.alternet.org/mediaculture/20669/The resistance has also undermined attempts by the US to sow divisions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Sheikh Sa'ad al-Ani of the Sufi Islamic Union of Iraq says that people from across the country helped the Fallujah resistance fighters during the April siege:
"People came from Baghdad, Najaf, and Basra to help Fallujah, and to bring us food and oxygen supplies. They came from every province of Iraq to show solidarity with us."
Sheikh Khalil Ibrahim also dismissed claims that the country would descend into civil war if the US coalition were to withdraw:
"I am a Sunni Muslim, but the Beni Tamim is a mixture of Shia and Sunni. Do you think that as soon as the Americans leave we will start killing each other? That a father will kill his son?
"This lie about a civil war has only one purpose-to extend the occupation. We say: 'Get out! Get out of our country. America and your allies, get out of our country. If you are afraid of civil war breaking out, turn the matter over to the United Nations so that it can bring peacekeeping troops to Iraq.'http://www.iso.org.au/socialistworker/540/p8a.htmlWhat If US Troops Leave?
If the US were to withdraw its troops from Iraq, some say the country would descend into chaos and blood-thirsty civil war.
The Iraqis we spoke with say this is not the case, that in fact Iraqis have lots of reasons to avoid such scenarios, that in fact this fear is being used as justification for the continued US occupation. Iraqis pointed out to us that after the horrors of the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War and, now, the war to remove Saddam Hussein that they are tired of war. They want to get on with their lives and improve their devastated country. The last thing they want, we were told, is the bloodshed of another war. They want to govern themselves, even if it might be with a less than perfect government.
As one Sunni religious leader involved in efforts to strengthen Sunni-Shiite relations told us when asked if there was a possibility of chaos if the US troops withdraw, "It's a gamble, but it's our gamble. It's our country and we have to be responsible for our own future."http://www.iraqwaterproject.com/familiesreport.htmIran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey have all had crisis wars within the last two decades, and so a massive "war of the people" in any of those countries is not possible, even if America withdraws. Of course, less violent "political wars" could still be initiated by these countries, and probably would be.
But a Vietnam-like scenario resulting in millions of deaths isn't a likely outcome to an American withdrawal from Iraq.
England's 1948 withdrawal from IraqIf we take a look at what happened with Britain's 1948 withdrawal from Iraq, we see the following:
-There was no massive civil war in Iraq, following the British withdrawal. In this sense, the comparison with America's withdrawal from Vietnam is wrong.
-Iraq was going through a bitter struggle between leaders of older and younger generations. This always happens during any generational awakening period, and it's been happening today with, for example, the power struggle between Shi'ite leaders Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Moqtada al-Sadr.
-Thus, there was a great deal of political instability following 1948, but civil order was maintained for the most part. Once again, this is similar to Iraq today.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.i.iraq041016