How did Kerry beat Dean on anti-war, college, and internet demographics

[George_Bonanza]

It's like a Bizarro World here. Apparently, Kerry got more votes than Dean among voters who identified themselves as anti-war, avid internet users, or college students. Weren't those supposed to be Dean's triumvirate, the new blood that was supposed to lift him over the top? I'll take the optimistic route and conclude they finally saw in Kerry what the rest of us saw in him earlier, but I'd like to hear other explanations.

[poskonig]

1. I'm that exact demographic.

I even gave Dean $100 during 2003.

Kerry has a lot of strengths on policy and campaigning that Dean or Clark do not.

[frank frankly]

2. I think the same population is SCARED LITERALLY TO DEATH OF BUSH

and they may be more worried about Dean's viability than Kerry's IWR vote. i can relate...

[The_Casual_Observer]

10. Some Iowa people made the same remark

They are being pragmatic and sending a message.

However, Kerry would have a steep uphill battle against bush, if what they say about southern bias against "easterners" holds true.

Perhaps Clark/Kerry??

[frank frankly]

3. I must add that none of the senators should have voted for IWR

but if they crush Bush on Iraq, i'm past it. i know a kid (not well, but met him twice) who died over there. they fucked up.

but we can't lose. and the whole Biden-Lugar/IWR thing clouds the water.

[isbister]

4. Maybe kind of a perfect storm

Things seemed to come together.

The TV stuff out of Canada couldn't have helped Dean.

Kerry and Edwards going positive while Gephardt and Dean went negative with the ads.

Undecideds looking over all of the issues and believing Kerry or Edwards were the stronger candidates to face bush.

[JI7]

5. ted kennedy

same reason ted kennedy supports kerry.

[stickdog]

6. Insurgents who campaign like front-runners while getting blasted by the

media from all sides don't get to hang with the cool kids.

[ShaneGR]

7. Electability and the undecideds

Don't forget that the undecideds in Iowa ALWAYS outnumbered those who identified themselves as Dean supporters. Those undecideds looked at all the candidates and chose either Kerry or Edwards as who they thought most capable of beating GWB.

[oasis]

8. Iowans wanted a candidate who could beat Bush. Plain and simple.

[stickdog]

12. Yes. Iowans, the DLC and the corporate media conspired together to

outsmart Rove.

[oasis]

22. And nothing succeeds like success. ;-)

[sandnsea]

9. Vanessa and Chris

I've read a couple of passing remarks about how powerful they were with young voters. And I think Kerry also has a kind of gentle strength that young people look up to. Like my 18 year old said "I don't want a President like me. A President should make you aspire to be more than you are." He saw that in John Kerry.

[incapsulated]

11. I'll take a shot...

Dean never had a large percentage of the "youth vote", at least not according to actual polls. I was surprised by that myself, it was more legend than truth.

Anti-war does not equate to voting against IWR anywhere in the real world. It applies to a small but vocal subset of the left. The majority of Democrats are against the occupation and simply want someone who is committed to getting us out effectively. That means everyone but Lieberman, basically.

Foriegn Policy Matters. Clarkies have been saying it for months, now everyone can see it in action. It's not everything, but it definitely helped Kerry.

Kerry was so demonized by some on the left of the party that, once again, nobody was paying attention to joe average democrat, who views him as a good guy with a great record.

Positive Messages Win. Dean and Gephardt were so busy attacking each other they turned off the voters.

*edit: spelling*

[Old and In the Way]

13. I was amazed tonight.............not sure anyone got this caucus

figured out.

But I suspect that there are many quiet Kerry supporters out there. I am one. I pretty much stay out of the Primary discussion threads, but I have watched John since the 60's. I know what his character is. He destroys Bush one on one. Bush will not debate him. Kerry would be a president/leader in the JFK mold, I think. He may even be the one to really take the BFEE down. I know many hear say he's "pro-war", but I credit Kerry with helping to end the VietNam War.

I have to say that I thought his candidacy was doomed a few weeks ago....but I am so happy to say that I was wrong. I have a good feeling about his chances now.

I'm relistening to his victory speech now....man, he's hitting on every hot button.

[isbister]

18. Bush will not debate him

If Kerry can win the nomination, I wouldn't be shocked if bush scheduled only one debate and then claimed a national security situation or something like that to cancel.

If bush does actually show up, Kerry won't let bush get away with that stupid act.

[Maddy McCall]

14. Veterans groups...never underestimate that segment of the electorate

which has been voting faithfully for decades. Those guys are every bit as motivated as college internet crowds, and they have the tentacles, just like internet users, to reach other voters.

Anyone who alienates the veteran segment is hurting himself.

[sandnsea]

19. Oh man, they've been online for years

They have a total online network, I swear I never even thought of that. Thank you vets, again and again!

[dreissig]

15. Anomalous Iowa

Iowa voters just got confused. The caucuses don't reflect their actual preferences. This sort of thing happens from time to time - anomalies that result in outcomes that are in fact least desired.

Iowans will be scratching their heads over this one. Caucuses are just not the way to go, as we are finding out.

[incapsulated]

16. WTF?

:crazy:

[Old and In the Way]

17. Guess we'll find out soon enough in New Hampshire.

Hope you can cool your "war-monger" rhetoric, too. Totally, wrong on this point too.

[sandnsea]

20. Edwards really confused them too

Please.

[bobbieinok]

25. ?????????

I assume you are not from IA, did not attend the caucus in person.

[mitchum]

28. Y'know, I was just being flippant with my "voodoo" remark below...

but apparently some do believe in it!

[OneBlueSky]

21. it's all about beating Bush, and I think voters are . . .

taking a cold, hard, dispassionate look at the candidates to see who best measures up as a viable opponent . . . Kerry's strength, and Dean's weakness, is foreign policy . . . and given the mess that Bush has gotten us into, foreign policy experience counts for an awful lot in this election . . . Dean's run a great campaign, and I have tremendous respect for what he's accomplished, but he has no foreign policy experience whatsoever, and Bush would eat him alive in that regard . . . I think Democrats understand this and are voting accordingly . . .

[NewYorkerfromMass]

23. Good thread deserves a kick

excellent discussion.

[SOS]

24. Young people didn't show up

Based on exit polls from the NYT:

18-29 17%
30-44 15%
45-64 41%
65+ 27%

Nearly 7 out of 10 were over 45. Over 45 outnumbered under 30 by 4 to 1. The "new blood" didn't materialize when it counted.

[Cocoa]

26. also won against Harkin's endorsement

really, Dean had a lot of advantages here.

[mitchum]

27. Voodoo?