Senate race run-down

[TheFarseer]

I haven't seen a thread about this for a while, so here goes:

Ranked by highest probability of turnover, Republicans first:

PA - Santorum continues to trail by double digits. Dem pickup

MT - latest poll has Tester up by 7. Look for a desperate Burns to crash and burn with some bone-head comments. Dem pickup

OH - I've seen polls with Brown up double digits and with DeWine up double digits. What's a guy to believe? Most of them have Brown on top so........ Dem pickup

RI - Even if Chafee lives through the primary, I'm seeing Whitehouse up on him in the polls. I wonder if Laffey voters will come back to Chafee and save him? Still, at this point I have to say........ Dem pickup

MO - This is the closest race of all IMO. I really would not be surprised either way, although I have seen Claire McCaskill ahead of Jim Talent by 2 in the latest poll after a series of ties and back and forths, so I will say. Dem pickup

TN - I don't know what's happening, but the last poll I saw had Harold Ford trailing Bob Corker by 12. Corker's not the nominee yet, but the other candidates are up on Ford also. Rep Hold

VA - I love Jim Webb and he's still got plenty of fight left, but he has no money. Rep hold

AZ - Pederson just can't make up any ground and he's down fairly big. Rep hold

NV - I know some people are excited about Carter but not enough Nevadans. Rep hold

WY - The Dem is making some noise but not enough. Rep hold

ME - I've never heard anything that indicates this is a race. Rep hold

MS - Trent Lott is rolling. Rep hold

TX - KBH is a shoe in. Rep hold

UT - Orin is just too sexy to lose. Rep hold

IN - No one is running against Dick Luger. Rep hold

Now the Democrats.

MN - this is a knockdown drag-out, but I keep seeing Knoblocker in front, so I gotta go with Dem hold

WA - Cantwell keeps losing ground in every poll. Lot's of Dems are turned off by her but her first ad blitz of the season might have turned things around. Dem hold

MD - Dems are still not sure who their candidate is. Both are polling ahead of Republican Michael Steele, but both are too close for comfort. Dem hold

NJ - This one has been polling so close the whole way, but frankly I just don't see the upset. Dem hold

NE - Ben Nelson can out-republican anyone, including Pete Rickets. Dem hold

MI - Stabenow doesn't inspire much confidence, but I haven't heard much about this one which is probably good news. Dem hold

WI - Kohl seems to have this in hand. Dem hold

CN - Drama aside, the repukes have no traction here. Dem hold

NM - Bingham up big. Dem hold

HI - Either Dem figures to win easily. Dem hold

DE - Carper having an easy time. Dem hold

ND - Conrad doing fine. Dem hold

WV - GOP tried to make some noise but it doesn't seem to be working. Dem hold

CA - Feinstein is fine. Dem hold

NY - Hillary in a laugher. Dem hold

MA - Why would the repubs even bother? Dem Hold

FL - Even the GOP is saying Big-boobs McGee has no chance. Dem hold

VT - and of course Bernie holding down the fort in Vermont.


That brings us to 50 R's, 49 D's and one I. Dick Cheney makes sure the repubs are in charge for 2 more years.

[ananda]

1. Geez

That's the best we can do?

That's so depressing.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Depressed? I'd be beyond thrilled with that outcome

That rundown gives us every close race other than Tennessee. And Virginia, if that is considered a reasonable pickup opportunity.

Winning Ohio, Missouri and Rhode Island would be head spinning delight.

Those are tossups, although there has been movement on the betting sites lately. Talent has moved to a 60-65% favorite in Missouri, while Brown is now close to 60% in Ohio, due to the new polls, and Whitehouse is 55-60% favorite in Rhode Island, largely due to the belief Laffey may knock out Chafee in the GOP primary. The odds on that race will change dramatically based on the primary result. Chafee becomes the favorite if he wins, while Whitehouse would be a significant favorite over Laffey, at least 2/1 and probably closer to 3/1.

[Telly Savalas]

30. I think conventional wisdom has it

that our best bet is to retake the House.

Sure it'd be nice to get the Senate too, but controlling the House will at least throw a few wrenches into the works.

[liberal N proud]

2. Speaking for Ohio: All local polls that I have seen has Brown up

from 8 to 16 points.

Only factor - BLACKWELL and his DIEBOLD machines. :scared:

[dajoki]

7. I don't trust Ohio n/t

[NJ Democrats]

3. Damn this sounds excatly like my picks!

[ndcohn]

4. good news

After this wave of ads , Maria Cantwell has expanded on her 4 pt lead from a month ago to 11pts according to rasmussenreports

[TwentyFive]

5. This is great news! Only mandate Bush will have is his boytoy Jeffy

Moderate republicans will not have to worry about BushCo for the last 2 years! Chafee in RI and Snowe in ME will end up voting with the Dems....

[Robbins]

8. My Take

Democrats will keep their seats. Cantwell will Preveil In Washington. Nelson Is a shoo In.
It will be close In New Jersey but It should still be on our side. If lamont beats Lieberman In the Primary he should win In the general. Whoever wins the Primary In Maryland should beat Steele,and
we have good chance to keep the Minnesota Seat. Santuram,Burns,and Dewine all look very beatable.
It will be Close In Missouri but I think Mckascill can beat Talent. And we have a good chance of
sending Chaffe home permently. Inless Ford can pull off a upset In Tennesse our best chance Is a
50 50 Senate. We won't win In Arizona,and Nevada. And the best Webb can do Is keep Allan by winning by single digets.

[skipos]

9. I would agree with your assessment, but it wouldn't surprise me

if we gain fewer seats than you predict. RI, MO, and OH are pretty neck and neck.

I am crossing my fingers for a Laffey win in the RI Repub primary, hopefully progressive minded independents vote for him since Whitehouse would defeat him in the general election. I am also hoping that Corker somehow doesn't win the TN Repub primary. It would take Bryant or Hilleary dropping out to support the other one, but at least Ford would do better against one of those guys.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I have more hope for Laffey after reading a Rhode Island blog

I searched for a local right wing take on that primary and found this site: http://www.anchorrising.com/barnacles/cat_rhode_island_politics.html

If you wade through all the crap it's interesting to see all the posts dating to late 2004, with the right wing locals determined to get rid of Chafee. I had no idea it was that deep seated and intense. Nor that Laffey was immediately championed as someone who could take on Chafee and defeat him in the primary. I started scrolling at the bottom and the late 2004/early 2005 sections and comments were more interesting than recent ones.

One guy made a good point that I never thought of, that it's much worse for the majority party to have someone who leans the other way, than for the minority party. It impacts every committee he/she sits on. Let's say we have a moderate to right leaning senator on a committee. That changes the natural partisanship from 5-7 to 4-8. Big deal, we still lose. But for the majority it means a switch from 7-5 to 6-6, potentially altering the debate and whether the bill is sent out of committee.

[skipos]

14. I saw a poll with Laffey winning

by a decent margin, but it was only taken of registered Republicans. Don't remember where I saw the poll.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. I've seen that also

If it holds up at the ballot box, Chafee is in big trouble. Party primaries are dominated by loyalists of that party so projecting otherwise doesn't work for me. Some estimates indicate Chafee needs 50% of the primary voters to be unaffiliated. I doubt it will be 30%.

But one thing always needs to be emphasized: primaries are very difficult to poll. I always try to dispute the general election polls but primary polls basically dispute themselves. It's a low turnout crapshoot.

[TheVirginian]

25. It was a poll conducted comparing different turn-outs in the primary.

If the turnout is 50% GOP, 50% non-GOP, Chafee had a one-point lead over Laffey. Anything higher than 50% GOP and Laffey's lead increased. Anything lower than 50% GOP, then Chafee's lead increased.

All other primary polls I've seen give Chafee a slight lead, though those are all older.

[TheFarseer]

15. Yes, my list almost reads like "best case scenario"

the only thing that could reasonably go better is a Ford win in Tennessee, but I just took each race and told you who I would pick if you put a gun to my head and told me to pick one.

[snowbear]

11. Orin Hatch is sexy?

...

[chieftain]

12. Good analysis. Here's hoping you are right about Missouri

and wrong about Tennessee.

[FogerRox]

13. NJ... Menendez wins by 10+% no brainer

I think we can pick up 5 seats in the senate, 20 to 30 in the house.

Linda Stender will probably deliver NJ7. NJ Long shots are Carol Gay NJ4, Paul Aronsohn NJ5, & Tom Wyka NJ11.

Senator Menendez may have coat tails, if he does, we may pick up more than one house seat in NJ.

[BluegrassDem]

16. We need Ford to win badly!

If we hold in NJ and win in MO, we need Ford to takeover the Senate! This is critical!

I'm sick of people complaining about Ford not being liberal enough. We need him in the Senate in the worst way. He may end up being the difference between Senate investigations of Bush or nothing at all. Ford is the lynchpin to a Dem takeover.

[chieftain]

22. I almost spewed coffee all over my wife when I read your delete

notice this am at the kitchen table. Too funny. I sure wish it was that easy.

[TheVirginian]

26. Menendez has a 40% approval rating.

I don't know about this 10% lead, and I especially doubt he has any coattails.

[MarkDevin]

17. What state is CN?

:shrug:

[snowbear]

18. Central Nevada?

[TheFarseer]

23. ugh, yeah CT. I feel stupid n/t

[Stardust]

19. What's CN?

[snowbear]

20. They must've meant CT ...

I live in Anchorage and I get mail all the time that is addressed to:

Anchorage, AL (which of course is Alabama)...

[alcibiades_mystery]

24. And you're being extraordinarily generous

Not one GOP pick-up in the whole bunch!

I think you're right though, but the Dems won't hold all of them. 47 Dems, 1 IND, and 52 GOP. Similiarly for the House. GOP has gerrymandered the districts to the limit, and there's no way Dems can overcome that in one cycle. It will be a narrowing of the margin, but the GOP wioll hold the House as well. Long term, people. Long term.

[Timmy5835]

27. There IS NO long term

If the Dems don't take over at least on House of Congress this country is lost. Pure and simple. The November elections is the most important this country has had in 100 years.

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. Hysterical

No, really. Don't get hysterical.

[TheFarseer]

29. But which dem do you think will lose?

Knoblocher is polling ahead. Cantwell is polling ahead. New Jersey seems too blue to think the Repub has a great chance. I'm in Nebraska and trust me, Nelson is going to win. I know it seems optomistic, but I can't point to a seat the Dems are likely to lose.

[TheVirginian]

32. Either NJ or WA.

MN has been trending Klobuchar for the last three months. But in New Jersey, Kean and Menendez have been trading leads since January, with neither candidate getting an edge over the other. I know people think that NJ is too Democrat to elect a Republican, but they've done it before, and people don't seem to realize that Menendez has only a 40% approval rating, one of the lowest in the Senate. On top of which, Frank Lautenberg has a low approval rating as well, leading many to believe that New Jersey is sick of having two Democrats in the Senate.

In Washington, Cantwell's lead has slowly narrowed since the beginning of this year. Though the latest released poll--Rasmussen's--show that Cantwell has since regained a double-digit lead over McGavick, that poll was actually conducted before other polls that show the race closer. In fact, a Strategic Vision poll taken a week after the Rasmussen poll shows the race at a four-point margin. Taking into account all of the polls in the last six months, Washington has slowly been creeping away from Cantwell. Whether it creeps away enough for her to lose remains to be seen, but I think its a bit premature to assume that we're out of trouble there.

[oldboy101]

31. Harold Ford can win Tennessee!

"In the general election, Ford was in statistical dead-heat with each of his potential Republican opponents as of a July 2006 Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll."

While your assessment of the Senate races is optimistic for us Dems., I do agree with it entirely, except for Ford in Tennessee. Based on the above quotation I do believe that he can win. He is very personable and the more people get to know him the better they like him IMO.

I am quite hopeful that we can actually gain control of both houses of Congress! I pray that it may be so. God bless America!

[TheVirginian]

33. Zogby was one of four polls done that week.

Each of the other three--Rasmussen, Mason Dixon, and the University of Tennesee, each had Corker with a double-digit lead over Ford. I'm inclined to view the Zogby poll as an outlier.