Top Ten Senate races most likely to change parties

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Virginia Senate Seat Now in Play

....As always, the No. 1 race is the most likely to switch parties....

***

4. Rhode Island: Sen. Chafee's win results in a one-spot drop for the Rhode Island race in this week's rankings. Chafee's ability to identify and convince unaffiliated voters to support him was essential to his primary win and he will need to reproduce that effort to have a chance against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in the fall. The problem for Chafee is that Rhode Island is a strongly Democratic state in a strongly Democratic year. If he is as unwilling to run negative ads in the general election as he was in the primary, he will almost assuredly lose the race. Chafee must figure out a way to highlight his political independence without appearing to be a man bereft of any conviction at all. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Ohio: Republicans are growing increasingly pessimistic about Sen. Mike DeWine's (R) chances of winning reelection due to the toxic environment in the state for GOPers. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) cast a number of votes during his time in Congress that will allow Republicans to label him a liberal, but it looks increasingly unlikely that it will not matter. DeWine is caught up in something much greater than any individual campaign; voters in Ohio are hungering for change and view Democrats as the party better able to give it to them. One X-factor in this race is the heavy involvement of the Republican National Committee, which is cosponsoring television ads that attack Brown on immigration and is likely to fund a massive get-out-the-vote operation. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Montana: In any other cycle, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) would be the No. 1-ranked race on the Line. How did Burns get into such dire straights? His connection to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff set the stage, but it is Burns himself who is to blame for his current political problems. Voters in Montana appear to be embarrassed by Burns's regular misstatements and foibles, and are ready to make a change. State Sen. Jon Tester (D) is more liberal than the average Montana voter, but all he needs to do between now and Nov. 7 is not make any big mistakes that would force voters to see the race as a choice between a devil they know and a devil they don't. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Pennsylvania: State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr.'s formula to beat Sen. Rick Santorum (R) isn't terribly complex. Witness the Democrat's latest ad: A narrator notes that Santorum votes with President George W. Bush 98 percent of the time while an image of the two men is shown on screen. The message? If you like Bush and his policies, vote for Santorum. If not, vote for Casey. In campaigns, simple messages are often the most effective. The Fix has watched Santorum long enough to never count him out, but this race continues to look very difficult for him to win. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/09/senate_line_times_they_are_a_c.html#more

[SteppingRazor]

1. If all 10 happen...

we pick up a net 4 seats, leaving the GOP with a total of 51 seats in the Senate.

[saltpoint]

3. If we hold New Jersey I think we get the Senate.

Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania seem very encouraging.

Rhode Island, Missouri and Virginia are doable.

Tennessee is possible.

Let's win all these, hold New Jersey, & the Senate is ours.

[LynneSin]

32. I think we'll get New Jersey

I've seen the polls all over the place, but Menendez is a great guy, definately progressive and appeal to the large hispanic population in the state.

[saltpoint]

33. Well, that's good. I like Menendez also and would like to see him

have that seat for 6 more years. Make it 12.

[DirtyJersey]

40. I hate Menendez

The only, ONLY reason I'm voting for him is because he has a "D" after his name and I want the Dems to win back the Senate. Menendez (and Corzine, for that matter) are the epitome of exactly what's wrong with the Democratic Party in New Jersey. I'm a Democrat and a New Jerseyan, but I find the state party to be an extremely corrupt organization and have little respect for it.

[saltpoint]

54. Politics can be a rough endeavor in the Garden State; I don't

think that's in dispute.

I do like Menendez and I agree with you about the takeover in the Senate. The takeover of Congress holds primacy.

We all have our favorite Democrats around the country but this fall the Republicans need to taste a little voter wrath for their considerable misdeeds.

:dem:

[wiley]

66. Democrats question donations to Kean

Democrats question donations to Kean
Horizon gave $13,300 on day of a big vote
Friday, September 15, 2006
BY DEBORAH HOWLETT
Star-Ledger Staff

The same day state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. voted twice to let Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey keep a $40 million tax exemption, he collected $13,300 in contributions for his U.S. Senate race from 17 company executives and their family members.

Kean (R-Union) cast the votes in the final, frenetic day of the fight over the 2005 state budget.

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-4/115829883967690.xml&coll=1&thispage=1

[saltpoint]

72. Yep. No Kean fans here at my house. That goes for his daddy, too.

[cyclezealot]

70. As a senator does he vote right?

I think he does. That's a critical question.

[saltpoint]

73. I'm with Menendez, you bet. Kean would be a Bush droid.

Let's keep this one blue.

[cyclezealot]

76. not that I know everything about Jersey politics.

BUt, he seems to cast a positive 'aura' from all I see. I do have the opinion, much in Jersey is tainted. Including the recent investigation of former EPA head, Whitman.

[saltpoint]

78. I acknowledge the image NJ politics has sometimes as kind of a

junkyard arena, and tempers do flare. There's the feud between Torricelli and Lautenberg. You mentioned Whitman. And so on. It's rough going.

But we need the Senate, might just as well fight like hell for it, and Menendez is a key piece of that puzzle.

[Hippo_Tron]

83. Corzine appears to be an outsider to the NJ machine

When he shut down the government, the back-story was supposedly about taking on the Speaker of the House and the NJ Dem Machine. I'm not completely sure about this, but it's what I've heard.

[fishwax]

87. I think we'll keep New Jersey too

and Maryland as well. I don't know anything about the Washington race.

[Monkeyman]

5. Is we only win one more VP will have deciding vote crap

[SteppingRazor]

7. Yeah, we've gotta pick up six net seats n/t

[saltpoint]

71. True. That makes this Fall's midterms that much more vital.

Let's pick those seats up.

[FogerRox]

39. um,.... . . . if all 10 happen, thats a flip of 20

We need 6, thats a flip of 12.


10 gives us an 8 seat majority, right?

In the House we are down ahhhhhh IIRC 29 seats, so the magic number is 15 repubs defeated.

[Awsi Dooger]

56. If all 10 happen we're in the minority

That's the top 10 most likely to flip, period. Three of them are seats we hold -- New Jersey, Washington, Maryland.

[Pawel K]

2. Chafee has a very good chance of winning, which isn't that bad

he is a better democrat than some democrats in the senate.

I would also add George Macaca Allen to the top of the list of being thrown out and Webb taking his place. There is a lot of hope this election year, lets hope democrats dont drop the ball between now and Nov 7th.

[SteppingRazor]

6. How is a Chafee win good?

It's certainly not better than a Whitehouse win. With Senate control at stake, that (R) after Chafee's name is a dealbreaker as far as I'm concerned.

[DirtyJersey]

42. Here's the thing about Chafee

The only reason for a progressive to oppose him is his party affiliation. But let's look at a few facts. First of all, it's completely irrelevant whether Chafee is in the Senate or not if the Dems win it back anyway or the GOP holds 51 seats. It only matters if the Senate goes 50-50, like it did in 2000. The odds of that happening are low, but even if it does, it still might not matter. First of all, there's a fair chance that Chafee could be persuaded to switch parties, much like Jim Jeffords did in 2001. But even if he sticks with the GOP, and they maintain control, and set the agenda, that won't matter if he goes against them on the floor vote. Right now the GOP margin is wide enough that Chafee's frequent dissents don't really matter, but with a 50-50 Senate, if Chafee votes with the Dems (which he usually does), the Republican agenda won't pass. So, provided he continues to keep the same voting record, which I see no reason he wouldn't, I think Lincoln Chafee deserved to be sent back to the Senate.

[cyclezealot]

59. Did he vote for BUsh's tax cuts.

If so, we do not need him. Tax cuts al la Bush style is the major litmus test. That and Supreme court votes.

[DirtyJersey]

88. Nope

He voted against the Bush tax cuts. He's 1 for 2 on Supreme Court nominees, but most Democrats voted for Roberts too.

[cyclezealot]

One problem with fact he voted against Bush tax cuts.

His presence in the Senate gives the GOP majority the committee chairs. Committee chairs are very important. The committee chairs heads up support for Bush's tax cut makes Chafee's no vote relatively unimportant. Unless there are enough GOP dissent to buck a chair and that's is pretty unlikely.
Committee chairs in the COngress are like little dictators calling up witness' and setting the agenda. I assure you Tax chair, Sen. Domenici of NM appreciates Chafee's presence, even if technically Chaffee is a no vote. Domenici sets the agenda , not Chafee.

[cyclezealot]

89. One problem with fact he voted against Bush tax cuts.

His presence in the Senate gives the GOP majority the committee chairs. Committee chairs are very important. The committee chairs heads up support for Bush's tax cut makes Chafee's no vote relatively unimportant. Unless there are enough GOP dissent to buck a chair and that's is pretty unlikely.
Committee chairs in the COngress are like little dictators calling up witness' and setting the agenda. I assure you Tax chair, Sen. Domenici of NM appreciates Chafee's presence, even if technically Chaffee is a no vote. Domenici sets the agenda , not Chafee.

[grizmaster]

8. A Chafee win would be awful

That two-faced slime has been screwing his very democratic constituency since bush got in office.

It was Chafee's vote that got Bolton's nomination to the floor the first time, and he cast that vote saying he didn't support Bolton. So the frikkin hypocrite gave the bush junta a committee victory as he was ordered and then when his vote meant nothing he voted against Bolton on the floor to try and cover his ass back here in RI.

That's right, the POS was for Bolton before he was against him.

And even if you want to swallow the kool aid that he's not such a bad sort, his just being a repub could help keep ALL the committees in repub hands.

Stopping Chafee is one of the critical races that dems MUST win.

[TheFarseer]

82. He also voted against the war

He's a better Democrat than Ben Nelson and I'm forced to vote for him. All in all, I wouldn't be too awfully mad if Chaffe won. If I lived in RI, I'm not sure who I would be voting for, but mostly because what little I've heard of Whitehouse was not terribly inspiring.

[rep the dems]

91. I'm not sure if I'd actually vote for Chafee over Whitehouse, but

let's not rule out the possibility that Chafee could switch parties if the Senate goes 50-50. True, he had the chance to earlier this year but he may think it will work out better for him if he waits. You never know.

[Ian HR]

92. Good point

I just want to add something I met Whitehouse at a fundraiser in NJ and he told be that Chafer votes with BUSH 82% of the time. He voted FOR ALTO of of committee he voted AGAINST the attempted filibuster of ALETO and when nothing mattered he voted against ALETO on the flor because he knew he was going to be confirmed anyway to cover his sorry A$$.

On the subject of Whitehouse he is a great candidate and he would have voted no on both Bolton and ALETO unlike the "respectable" republican Chafee

[elperromagico]

21. RI will be a close one.

But I would rather have a Democrat in that seat than a Republican, however un-Republican he may be. A Republican in that seat helps maintain a Republican majority, meaning two more years of Republican policies and Republican tactics in the Senate.

Even if he voted against the war, a Republican ass in that seat is a de facto vote for Republican control of the Senate.

Oh, if only Laffey had won the primary...

[hvn_nbr_2]

28. The man, not the party?

While Chafee's votes on specific bills that come before the Senate may be reasonably good, his vote to determine indirectly which bills will come before the Senate is the most important one.

THE most important issue that will come before the Senate will be the first issue they deal with in January, of who controls the Senate. Will Frist or Reid be the majority leader? Who will be the chairs of every committee and subcommitte? Who will have the majority on every committee and subcommittee? Who will have subpoena power?

When people vote for the man, they also vote for the whole gang of thieves, crooks, liars, warmongers, corrupt chickenhawks, racists, and flat-earthers that come with him, whether they like or not, whether they're willing to admit it or not. This year more than ever, because of the increasing polarization and the increasing radicalization of the Republican Party, a vote for a "moderate" Republican is a vote for extremist control of the country.

Democrats should never say the name Chafee without the names Bush and Cheney. If they ever show a picture of Chafee, they should show a picture of Bush and Cheney alongside him.

[orleans]

68. frist will not be in the senate--he's retiring so he can do more of

his handiwork on patients & kitty cats.

repuke bob corker is running (hopefully he'll run away!)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_oet&address=358x1725#ussenate

[GOPBasher]

44. Chafee himself isn't bad, but that R after his name gives them one

more seat that we have to overcome to get the majority. Having the majority makes all the difference in the world. We need to control which issues come to the senate.

[AussieDave]

67. Chafee is a REPUBLICAN - there is no such thing as a "moderate Republican"

If a Senator or representative has an "R" after his/her name, in the end he/she will support Bush. The end. No further comment. Bottom line. It just doesn't get any clearer than that.

[Orrex]

4. Great stuff, but is there a small typo in #3?

3. Ohio: Republicans are growing increasingly pessimistic about Sen. Mike DeWine's (R) chances of winning reelection due to the toxic environment in the state for GOPers. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) cast a number of votes during his time in Congress that will allow Republicans to label him a liberal, but it looks increasingly unlikely that it will not matter.

Should that be looks increasling unlikely that it will matter instead?

Otherwise, a great and hopeful list. If Santorum gets the boot, I will begin to regain some optimism about the future of our country.

[DeepModem Mom]

9. Looks like a typo to me. nt

[Greeby]

10. No chance that if it goes down to the wire

CHafee will "do a Jeffords" after the election? :shrug:

[ronnykmarshall]

41. That's what I'm thinking.

While I think we'll get the house ... I think the best we might get in the senate is a 50-50 split.

[orleans]

69. only if bush doesn't send him an invitation to a party (like he pulled

with jeffords--from what i recall)

[Stinky The Clown]

11. Don't forget Connecticut

Everyone counts it as a Dem hold. If the self-selected 3rd party candidate challenging Democratic nominee Ned Lamont should win, there's NO telling with whom he'll caucus. Conventional thinkers think he'll be true to his word to caucus with them Dems. I am FAR less confident that will happen.

[saltpoint]

13. Agree that Lieberman is an unstable element, and his already-fluid

loyalties might find him caucusing with the Republibcans.

An unpublished Rasmussen poll this morning has Joe at 45% and Ned at 43%. I think Joe is about to taste the most staggering defeat of his life, in a string of consecutive big defeats.

Within the margin of error, Joe is facing political oblivion. I think he'll drop out.

[CTyankee]

51. From your mouth to God's ear, Crusoe!

Just went back to call for Ned today. Toughest are the so-called "independents" who are really Republicans. I know I can't crack them so I try to just straighten them out on the lies that are being spread about Ned (e.g. Ned claimed he was a "teacher" in a Bridgeport school when he never said that and his web site confirms he was a volunteer; he only taught a class). What I love to get is an undecided and I start talking about the war and health care. I want them to start thinking. Some people actually aren't aware that Joe is no longer a Democrat. I straighten them out fast!

[saltpoint]

74. Good for you, CTyankee. Keep up the good fight. Information never

hurt our cause -- it's the Republicans who seem to think they're immune from it. And Joe is no longer on the blue team.

The race is a thriller. I'm hoping Joe gets the message and drops out. Say, within 24 hours or so? That works for me!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

86. :drool:

I think Joe is about to taste the most staggering defeat of his life, in a string of consecutive big defeats.

[CTyankee]

50. Especially with all that Republican money being poured into his

campaign. He will be even more beholden to him than he is now!

[Clark2008]

12. Oh, how I love, love, love this one:

7. Tennessee: Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) had a good last week. First came the news that former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) will have to testify next month about his role in a land acquisition deal with Wal-Mart -- a fact Democrats immediately sought to exploit as evidence of questionable ethical practices by the Republican. Then Ford launched his latest ad, which is set in a church and continues to effectively drive home the message that he is not a traditional Democrat. "Here I learned the difference between right and wrong," says Ford in the commercial. "And now Mr. Corker's doing wrong." For all of Ford's campaign skills and Corker's recent struggles, this is still the South -- where Democrats -- where Democrats have won only two open-seat Senate races since 1996. (Previous ranking: 9)


I know Ford isn't a DU favorite, but, he's bright, he's young, and he's another Democratic body needed to reach majority. He HAS to be somewhat conservative on social issues to win a state like Tennessee, but, he'll still be able to cast votes that, well, aren't so Frist-like. Think about it: we have Frist now - Ford is soooooooooooooooooo much more of an improvement that we'll be happy!

[jsamuel]

15. He HAS to be somewhat conservative on social issues to win a state like TN

not true

Gore

[SaveElmer]

17. How'd Gore do in the 2000 race...

Had he been able to hold his home state Florida would nopt have mattered.

[elperromagico]

19. Gore certainly did better there than Kerry did.

I think what hurt Gore there was that, for some time, he took the state for granted. It's his home state - why would he need to campaign heavily there?

Obviously, Ford is not taking Tennessee for granted. Remember, too, that when Gore was a senator he was one of the most hawkish Democrats in the Senate.

[LSK]

24. you mean the one where Rove had people call TN citizens...

and tell them that Gore was going to take their guns away??

THAT RACE??????????

[SaveElmer]

26. Proving the point...

That Ford's campaign is emphasizing issues tailored to Tennessee voters!

[Clark2008]

45. Yes he is

He's going to every nook and cranny of the state. He's been to biker bars and redneck watering holes. He's had Clinton visit and he's met with grandma's on porches.

He's talking about issues that matter to Tennesseans, while Corker's running "TERRA! FEAR! TERRA! FEAR!" ads (oh - and Corker didn't fund the E-911 well enough in Chattanooga, it seems. Nearly 31,000 E-911 calls went unanswered during the time he was mayor - UNANSWERED - no one there to pick it up!! So much for Corker being a stickler for protecting folks).

[jsamuel]

30. ok, but I was talking about him being a senator from TN not about prez

[SaveElmer]

I know...

I think Tennessee turned further right about 1994. Unfortunate. Ford is probably setting about the right tone right now. He is an extremely intelligent and chraismatic guy, and a huge improvement over Frist.

[SaveElmer]

31. I know...

I think Tennessee turned further right about 1994. Unfortunate. Ford is probably setting about the right tone right now. He is an extremely intelligent and chraismatic guy, and a huge improvement over Frist.

[Clark2008]

22. Gore was more conservative when he was our senator.

He was against federal funding of Planned Parenthood, for example. Sorry, but he was more conservative than he is now. I have been a constituent of his from the time he was first elected until the time the Supreme Court chose Shrub over him, so I know this as fact.

So - your statement is, well, not true.

Have a nice day!

[jsamuel]

29. sure, more conservative, but not like Ford

[Clark2008]

47. No - Gore was DLC when he was our senator.

There really isn't that much difference in Gore's stances then and Ford's stances now.

Sure, I guess if someone wanted to try and match vote for vote, we'd see some differences, but, overall Gore was a moderate and so is Ford.

Moderate for Tennessee - I mean.

[Jai4WKC08]

93. He's still pretty conservative

Or more accurately, less liberal.

Everybody likes to talk about the "new" Gore. Well, maybe he has changed in style... altho it could just be that he's not running for anything -- it's a lot easier to play the firebrand when you aren't courting voters. But why does anyone think he's changed his position on any issue since he was a senator? What is the evidence? Because he endorsed Dean? Dean is pretty moderate on a lot of issues. Because he was against the war? Heck, even Pat Buchanan was against the war. Gore does not support immediate withdrawal.

I like and respect Gore. I really truly do. I always have. And he's high on my list for 2008. But I think a whole lot of Democrats, especially progressives, are seeing him for what they want him to be, not for what he is. It's like they've bought into the GOP lie that Gore is a "scary librul," which is how they portray anyone to the left of George Allen.

Oh well, whatever. Whether I'm right or wrong, about both style and substance, should become obvious enough if/when Gore decides to run.

[Hippo_Tron]

84. Gore was taking pictures with Fred Phelps when he was Tennesee's Senator

Phelps wasn't picketing anybody's funeral back then but he was still very anti gay rights and anti abortion. Don't get me wrong, I love Gore now, but he's become more liberal as a national politician.

I think a better example is that Clinton carried TN twice and he was pro-choice, pro gun control, and more pro gay rights than either Dole or Bush.

[Hippo_Tron]

85. Ford's campaign has been managed very well IMO

I realize that some people don't like the idea that he set his ad in a church and is trying to play the religious card. I look at it this way, though. Setting your political ad in a church to win over religious voters is a lot better than gay bashing or preaching false "family values" to win over religious voters.

Ford also has substance. While he uses the religious theme, he mostly talks about education, jobs, energy, things that appeal to everyone.

I've seen nothing from Corker other than trying to scare people into thinking that terrorists will kill them if Harold Ford is elected. And if he's pulling out the terror ads in September that means that he's decided that Guns, God, and Gays won't work on Ford and that means that after people get tired of the terror ads, he has nothing.

All that Ford has to do is kick Corker's ass in the debate and I think he'll pull it out on election day.

[longship]

14. This is the deal with this list.

None of the Democrat-held seats, Cantwell-#9, Cardin-#8, or Menendez-#5, are going to flip to the Repukes. The closest right now is Menendez, but he's started his campaign with a very tough ad on homeland security and if he continues with this strategy he's going to have little trouble pulling things out by November. It is very likely that the Democrats will lose no Senate seats at all in November. The momentum on these three is clearly towards the incumbent party.

The Repukes wish that they could say the same. The other seven races are very much in jeopardy and are moving toward the Democrats as well. The Repukes could very well lose all seven. Then, there is one more race that could be on the list by election day, Kyl in AZ is beginning to have trouble holding his advantage against Democrat Pederson. We could see an eighth Repuke seat on this list soon.

Keep working DUers. It's happening.

[elperromagico]

20. We're certainly in a better position than in 2004.

One thing that really hurt us in '04 was that we had so many open seats in the South. If those retiring Dem senators had run again, they (with the arguable exception of Edwards in NC) would have easily won. But with an open seat, people tend to vote their political preferences and most of the South has shifted to the Republicans.

This time around, the only open seat in the South is Tennessee, where we have a fair chance of pulling out a win. The other open seats are in areas of the country where our chances are damn good.

[longship]

52. In the House, we're doing great in very Red states.

We're almost sure of taking *three* House seats in Indiana and one more of them is beginning to worry the Repukes, so it could conceivably be four. There are so many House seats in the competitive category that there's no way that the Repukes can jigger the voting machines to win this.

Now here's the real deal that reveals just how bad it really is for the Repukes this year. NOT ONE Democrat-held seat in Congress is in serious jeopardy at this time. That's right. Not one. For the first time in recent history the out-of-power party may not lose a single seat. The Repukes cannot even say that about 1994 when the Dems picked up a few while Repukes picked up 52.

But this can very easily happen this time if the Dems keep on their game. A Congressional sweep is possible. If that happens we're going to be getting both the House and the Senate. The House isn't going to even be close.

[AX10]

34. I agree that we will not lose any of our seats.

"None of the Democrat-held seats, Cantwell-#9, Cardin-#8, or Menendez-#5, are going to flip to the Repukes. The closest right now is Menendez, but he's started his campaign with a very tough ad on homeland security and if he continues with this strategy he's going to have little trouble pulling things out by November. It is very likely that the Democrats will lose no Senate seats at all in November. The momentum on these three is clearly towards the incumbent party."

[Dulcinea]

16. In the name of all that is good and holy.....

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE get rid of Santorum. I can't stand the sight of him!

[elperromagico]

18. I think Chafee's primary win might be a bad omen for the GOP.

Conservatives did not turn out in the numbers they needed to in order to elect Laffey. The race went from being a tie in the polls to an 8 point win by Chafee.

The conservatives had one of their own to vote for (a rarity in RI, I'm sure), yet they didn't seem to turn out. Is this a sign of a national trend among conservatives? What are the Republicans going to try and do to get these voters out again?

[LSK]

23. 8 GOP seats contested, 2 DEM seats contested

I get that count right?

[DeepModem Mom]

25. 3 Dem seats? Washington, Maryland, and NJ. nt

[Zynx]

27. Washington and Maryland are not close.

[Castleman]

35. Washington will stay blue...

this state's bluer than a 45 year old virgin's balls...

[Zynx]

36. Heheh...gross.

[LynneSin]

48. Woza welcome to DU and probably the best first post ever

But however you describe it - we're glad that Washington is staying Blue!

[ktlyon]

49. welcome friend

congrats on posting your first post, I could have done without the image. All hairy and all.

[civildisoBDence]

37. Taking the Senate outright is highly unlikely

but the number of Republicans bolting from Bush is encouraging. While some may return to the fold as soon as the elections are over, I'm convinced that several will vote with Democrats on vital issues like censure and impeachment (Snowe, Warner, Graham, Hagel...)

The winner in all this may be Leiberman, who, if he should win, would become a swing vote and a power broker.

Newsprism

[FogerRox]

38. WE need to defeat 6 repubs in the senate

There are 7 to 9 that look like they could lose. WE only need 6 to get to 51D/49R.
If...............

[Zynx]

43. I think we will win PA, RI, MO, OH, and MT. We need to win TN to put us

over the top and not lose NJ.

[LynneSin]

46. It's difficult for me to put Ohio in our column with Kenneth Blackwell

in charge of Ohio's voting system and those Diebold voting machine.

That's just me, I"m not putting any hope that we will gain that seat. If we win I truly will be happily suprised

[FogerRox]

53. Montana, VA & Missiouri are in the mix as well

[Zynx]

55. I said MT and MO.

VA is a possibility, but I need to see some signs of life out of Webb's campaign. Allen screwing up will only get us so far.

[Maryland Liberal]

57. Impeachment

We should try to nationalize thses races by saying "If we get a majority in the House - and 2/3 in the Senate, we WILL impeach Bushie"

[FogerRox]

58. IMPEACH INDICT & REMOVE FROM OFFICE

hmmm yeah, sounds real good..

[Bjorn Against]

60. Did anyone else notice this little swipe at the Democrats?

"Ford launched his latest ad, which is set in a church and continues to effectively drive home the message that he is not a traditional Democrat."

So if a Democrat goes into a church they are not a traditional Democrat.

Note to the Washington Post: We are accepting of people of all religions. Churches are not for Republicans only.

[doctor_garth]

61. hmmm Osama anyone?

all of this will be irrelevant. The Chimp has been talking about Osama a lot lately, more than anytime since 911. I have a feeling Osama will be 'caught' in a few weeks and the election will be won by Repugs, or at least it will be much easier to steal it. Remember, they CANNOT afford to lose this or any other election or they will be sent to jail. Bush can't possibly pardon them all.

Do Democrats have a plan b in case Osama is caught? I doubt it.

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/analysis/107

[Kram]

62. Bob Casey needs your help - Respond to this poll please!!!!

In late August, the Centre Daily Times, the State College PA newspaper posted a poll to gather numbers on the Casey / Santorum US Senate race. For weeks, central PA voters have been responding a Casey was leading 60-40. Then, Repugs or the Santorum campaign sent out an email with a link directing Santorum supports to go to the site and click for their boy to give the false picture that voters are selecting slick Rick by a 90-10 margin.

Here is the link....

C'mon Democrats lets show the punks who support Santorum that we can fight their dirty tricks!!!!

http://forums.centredaily.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=kr-statecolpol&msg=190.1&ctx=1

[ncrainbowgrrl]

63. Welcome to DU, Kram!

:hi:

[snowbear]

65. OMG!!! has that poll been freeped, or has that poll been FREEPED !!!??!!?

It seriously needs HELP..............

I wonder if someone at "State College" that is running the poll tampered with it?

What's the deal Pennsylvanians???

[Vidar]

75. done. Welcome to DU. depressing freeped poll.

[rodeodance]

64. I want so deperately to see Santorium go DOWN

[saltpoint]

79. Me, too. On a porcupine.

[countingbluecars]

80. Ha!

Good one!

[saltpoint]

81. Hi, countingbluecars. I think your user name is top-drawer.

Excellent.

[nickshepDEM]

77. NJ is more likely to switch than RI... imo

[rep the dems]

90. Increasingly unlikely that it will not matter?

I think that's a mistake.