ARG Poll: Hillary leads Obama by 17, Edwards by 20...

[SaveElmer]

Hillary 39
Obama 22
Edwards 19

Undecided at 11% is next, and then Biden at 3%. His debate performance may have helped him a bit...

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[ronnykmarshall]

1. Oh Elmer ..

You know that poll is bought and paid for by the Clintonites!

:sarcasm:

[sallyseven]

2. No it's not.

[ronnykmarshall]

7. Sally ..... you missed the sarcasm icon.

[Demeter]

3. If It Were 2 Weeks Before the Primaries I Might Give a Care

[durrrty libby]

4. Oh sure...she is ahead now. Just you wait and see if she is

ahead on the really important times

You know, like the Roman Times, or daylight-saving time,

or supper time. What tune will you sing then? Huh..huh..huh?

[Clarkansas]

5. It is strange that she does so well in primary polls, but not so well in general election polls

at least compared to our other declared "frontrunners." If there is a candidate we could nominate to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it would be Senator Clinton.

[kimmerspixelated]

6. Yes, I find that

curious as well.

[illinoisprogressive]

8. And Rassmussen has them 2 points apart. Take your pick.

[SaveElmer]

10. Not exactly...

However, the race may not be as close as those numbers suggest. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Democrats, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Among Democrats only, Clinton leads by eight percentage points, 39% to 31% (with Edwards at 15%). That’s little changed from a week ago when Clinton led by eleven among Democrats in the survey.

[bigdarryl]

38. because he factored in the independents and Obama leads Hillary 2 to 1 among them so her lead shrink

[Rock_Garden]

9. Thanks, Elmer

And I enjoyed reading your blog!

:hi:

[SaveElmer]

11. Thanks...

Haven't updated it is some time...gonna put some stuff up there soon though!

[TwilightGardener]

12. I don't get it. I don't know anyone (besides my mom, who likes just

about everybody this time around) who says they will vote for her. WHERE are her supporters? I'm not saying that to insult her, I like her--but personally, I'm not seeing the love.

[SaveElmer]

13. My parents alwys say...

Everyone they know voted for McGovern, so why didn't he win?

Depends who you hang with!

[TwilightGardener]

16. I suppose!

[durrrty libby]

18. Funny, my experience is just the opposite

[SoxFan]

14. ARG is not a legit firm

American Research Group is known in the NH political community as a shady, play-for-pay outfit. In the past, pols from both parties, including Democrat John Durkin and Republican Charlie Bass, have had unreported deals with ARG whereby Dick Bennett receives a financial benefit and the candidate gets special treatment in ARG's surveys.

No boiler room.
No cross tabs or detailed data breakdown.
No credibility.

[SaveElmer]

15. Yeah you made this allegation before...

Frankly, were they as illegitimate as you say Kos, Texeira, Mystery Pollster would be all over it...

Your reasoning has a very vague quality about it, and it does seem that whatever polling outfit has Hillary in front is all of a sudden deemed illegitimate (see comments on the recent Marist poll for example). If you have some harder evidence other than that you presented here, I'd like to see it...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3246869#3247905

[madfloridian]

17. It's nice to know we don't have to worry about voting in 08.

We have our nominee. We don't have to fret or worry.

[durrrty libby]

19. You are correct..Yay us!

[SaveElmer]

20. Well I hope it would induce you to get out there for Obama...

Especially in Florida...

Latest poll there is not lookin good for him...

Hillary 42
Obama 19
Edwards 12

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/05/13/State/Clinton__Giuliani_lea.shtml

[calteacherguy]

22. I doubt Obama has even campaigned in Florida...it's all name recognition and meaningless. nt

[calteacherguy]

21. As Zogby pointed out a couple days ago, such polls are meaningless.

For three reasons:

1. It's all name recognition

2. It's state contests that count

2. It's way early

I'd suggest you find better ways to spend your time, SaveElmer. Posting stuff like this isn't going to help Hillary Clinton win. It won't make any difference.

[durrrty libby]

23. Use your head. How could it be "meaningless"?

Of course it means something

Are you a Zogby sheep?

[calteacherguy]

24. It's meaningless as far as a predictor of the final outcome. nt

[durrrty libby]

25. If you ever took a statistic course you would not utter such

foolishness

[calteacherguy]

29. Wrong. I took statistics at the University of California.

Got an A. :-)

Try again. I'm not "uttering foolishness." Polls taken now have no correlation to what will happen in Iowa 9 months from now. Any political scientist and statician who tells you differently is either lying or a fool.

[durrrty libby]

32. "no correlation" please,if nothing else, it tells you trends

No worries though. Hillary will be an amazing president

[calteacherguy]

33. No she won't if she doesn't get the nomination.

She has as much a chance of that as anyone.

[durrrty libby]

34. Your stats prof should be fired

Hate Hillary all you want, but the polls are not like lotto,
where your chances start anew on each draw.

Reality is your friend

[calteacherguy]

35. Prove to me polls taken now have any correlation to what voters do next January. nt

[durrrty libby]

36. Prove to me they don't

[calteacherguy]

37. Go prove a negative yourself.

You'll be the first.

[SaveElmer]

26. It's not meaningless...

It simply is not predictive of final outcome...I never claimed it was...

It isn't any more meaningless than say the score at halftime of a football game...you cannot predict the outcome based on it, but it does clearly have meaning...

If its state polls you want, Hillary is well ahead there as well. Of the early primary states, she is ahead in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina pretty comfortably. In Iowa she is slightly behind Edwards, but generally within the MoE. If Florida succeeds in moving up their primary, she is way ahead there...upwards of 25 points, and in California as well...

[calteacherguy]

27. Which is all meaningless if by posting these polls

you mean to imply the Hillary Clinton has a greater chance of winning the nomination than anyone else.

If that is not what you mean, O.K. The race hasn't even really begun in most of these states, and won't for many more months.

[SaveElmer]

28. She does have a greater chance...

She currently has the most support, the most money and the superior ground game...

A football team ahead at halftime does have a better chance of winning...but it by no means is guaranteed...polls tell you what people are thinking right now, a succession of polls can identify trends....

But none of that is a guarantee of final outcome...as we leaned to our distress in 2004...


Just saw a poll btw that has Obama slightly ahead in SC...to update my previous post!

[calteacherguy]

30. No she doesn't have a greater chance.

This isn't a football game. It's not a matter of racking up points.

If you want to say she has a greater chance and try to support it with evidence, fine. But you can't prove that she has a greater chance because there is no scientific validity in that statement unless you prove a correlation between these polls and what will happen in 9 months from now, and you can't do that.

[SaveElmer]

31. I gave you evidence...

She is currently the most popular Democrat...and if the primaries were held today she would win...therefore she has an advantage, she is starting from a higher level of supporty. She also has a money advantage...

You can deny it all you want but those are the facts...they may change, but right now Hillary is in a very strong position...

[Nedsdag]

39. No one's denying she's in a strong position.

Among people I know, however, there's no passion or excitement for her. If she gets the nomination it'll be business as usual. Bill can make a thousand flowery videos but it fait accompli for her.

I can bring up the Supreme Court to my friends and it still wouldn't matter.