Why did Dean lose Iowa?

[Herman Munster]

The two most common explanations I heard were:

1) Inexpeerienced campaign volunteers that harassed Iowa voters by calling them multiple times per day and writing personal letters that scared voters off

2) Gephardt started attacking Dean vigoriously and they went off in a tit for tat together with negative ads that turned off voters and allowed Kerry to stay above the fray

[madfloridian]

1. Why does it matter now, unless you want to stir up stuff.

.

[Name removed]

58. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

132. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LoZoccolo]

135. So people don't do it again?

Why do you post DLC stuff from 1985?

[Demeter]

2. Nibbled To Death By Ducks

Gephart was a large factor. Imported labor another, the MSM a third. Iowa stubborness probably enters in, too.

Musical: Music Man

Song: Iowa Stubborn

Townspeople:

Oh, there's nothing halfway
About the Iowa way to treat you,
When we treat you
Which we may not do at all.

There's an Iowa kind of special
Chip-on-the-shoulder attitude.
We've never been without.
That we recall.

We can be cold
As our falling thermometers in December
If you ask about our weather in July.
And we're so by God stubborn
We could stand touchin' noses
For a week at a time
And never see eye-to-eye.

But what the heck, you're welcome,
Join us at the picnic.
You can eat your fill
Of all the food you bring yourself.
You really ought to give Iowa a try.
Provided you are contrary,

We can be cold
As our falling thermometer in December
If you ask about our weather in July.
And we're so by God stubborn
We can stand touchin' noses
For a week at a time
And never see eye-to-eye.
But we'll give you our shirt
And a back to go with it
If your crops should happen to die.

Farmer:
So, what the heck, you're welcome,
Glad to have you with us.

Farmer and Wife:
Even though we may not ever mention it again.

Townspeople:
You really ought to give Iowa
Hawkeye Iowa
Dubuque, Des
Moines, Davenport, Marshalltown,
Mason City, Keokuk, Ames,
Clear Lake
Ought to give Iowa a try!

[TwilightGardener]

3. Overbearing "outsider" supporters, from what I heard. Also, too Vermonty for the midwest.

[patrice]

7. I saw that upclose and personal over dinner there one night.

The thing about the Dean campaign was that it invited everyone in (BTW, I still believe in doing that). There many who were complete newbies and some people temperamentally unsuited for what they were doing BUT there was no process and not enough time for any given group to ID and naturally address the overbearing types to get them to adapt functionally to the needs of the situation. I listened to at least one example of someone who was in the group I was with locked in a struggle to the death with another Democrat over health care. I was shocked. I don't have a whole lot of experience, but even with the little I've done, I knew what I saw was seriously harmful.

I also saw at least one case of what I thought of as "raiding the chicken coop", a certain type of volunteer approached by an unknown other, who then disappeared with them (out the door and down the street toward a coffee shop that was in the same direction as the Kerry campaign quarters, which were just a couple of blocks away) and did not return to the task that we had been working on together. Not terribly surprising given the ambitious nature of *some* volunteer politicking.

[TwilightGardener]

10. I was never a campaign volunteer, but I imagine it's hard for a campaign to control

all these people, of different educational levels, abilities, backgrounds, personalities, etc., going door-to-door and saying God-knows-what. Who knows how many votes a candidate is LOSING with certain volunteers, especially if they have not had some good training?

[patrice]

13. It's very different now.

I'm still absolutely committed to inviting EVERYONE in and that's what is happening out here. But there is much more focus on training and the party district volunteer-coordinator is taking the time and making the effort to get to know the volunteers personally.

[Radical Activist]

23. I saw Dean supporters heckling people and being generally annoying

outside the events of other candidates. If you just saw Edwards make a great positive speech, then on the way out you get hassled by a bunch of people wearing weird orange hats (what the hell was that about anyway?)... well that doesn't make a good impression on people, especially non-confrontational midwesterners. It was reflective of a poorly organized campaign that didn't know how to effectively use its volunteers. The simple fact is that the Kerry campaign was extremely well organized in Iowa and it paid off for them.

[TwilightGardener]

27. Yep--I live right across the river in Nebraska, and I can tell you it's not surprising

that the "armies" of orange-hatted folks, as earnest and well-meaning as they may be, wouldn't play well here, especially if they got pushy--people out here are reserved and don't like the hard sell. Just a cultural misunderstanding, I guess--one of the pitfalls of national politics.

[madfloridian]

33. With the Vilsacks behind them.

.

[Radical Activist]

34. huh?

[David Dunham]

4. Kerry ran very effective ads saying Dean would raise everyone's taxes

Dean should have limited his plan to repealing the Bush tax cuts only for the wealthy not all taxpayers.

[msongs]

5. got into a mutual negative ad spat with gephart and the attention turned to kerry.... nt

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Because his scream was so awful and powerful

that it traveled back in time and convinced the voters that he was a crazy communist!

Or possibly for some other reason.

[TwilightGardener]

14. I'll be honest, the "scream" kind of alarmed me, NOT because of the

volume, but because of the snarly grin accompanying it--he looked kind of hostile and unhinged. Like McCain on an off-meds day, but louder and redder. You could tell he was just really, really upset and angry about losing, and that did not make him seem emotionally stable enough for the job--I will never forget Tom Harkin's face behind him, smiling, yet his eyes registering slight alarm. One thing you should be able to expect in a President is equanimity during a setback or loss. I was a Clark fan, myself, by way of disclosure. The media made too much of it, playing it OVER and OVER, but it DID stick in my mind to some extent as "something's not quite right with this dude".

[madfloridian]

17. Ha ha. This is a great post to get your digs in

I love it was probably started for nefarious reasons.

:rofl:

[TwilightGardener]

20. Well, not so much a "dig"--that's just my personal take on the matter.

I harbor no ill-will whatsoever toward Dean or any supporters. I just think he revealed more of himself than he had planned at that moment, and it turned some people off--it happens to politicians all the time, losing their poker-face or slipping up verbally--a hazard of fatigue, frustration and constant campaigning. My candidate was basically doomed, and I didn't watch the Iowa race with that much interest, to be frank, so I have no bitter feelings or bad emotions about the outcome.

[MH1]

18. "the scream" was not a "scream" until the media made it so.

I saw it live, or before the media mantra had set in, and I didn't think anything bad about it.

I thought Dean was expressing ridiculous optimism at that point but that's what rallying the troops is about, right?

Face it - the Dems were ROLLED on the "Dean scream." Just as they were in 2000 about Gore being "boring" or "exaggerating", or in 2004 about Kerry being "boring" and so forth.

Keep on lapping it up, folks. The repubs love you for it.

[TwilightGardener]

25. It's not a "Repub" trick--I could have watched the speech with the

volume off and still saw the same expression and body language, and came to the same conclusion--no media spin needed. To me, he was probably disappointed, frustrated, wiped-out emotionally and physically, and it showed at an unfortunate moment, when the cameras were rolling and people probably expected a more even-keeled, conciliatory, less-defiant speech--I mostly felt bad for him. I think the media made too much of it, because they interpreted it as THE defining moment of his entire campaign--too much importance was placed on it, certainly--but it WAS a damaging moment even without the constant rehash on every channel.

[tishaLA]

36. Before it became a "media mantra"

People were discussing it on a varity of threads on DU. Here is one of them:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=141954

[Cameron27]

56. Wow, that thread was harsh lol.

Thanks for the link, I've wanted to see what the 04 primaries were like here.

[madfloridian]

63. Would you like to see some I saved???

And they are not about Dean.

This is ugly stuff going on here.

It is meant to hurt.

[Cameron27]

66. Actually I wouldn't mind seeing some threads from 04,

not because I revel in seeing the hatefulness between supporters, but just to see if it's gotten worse now.

[madfloridian]

62. Wow, a pile on. I need to find a couple of threads that I remember well.

painful threads. Meant to hurt....just like that one was.

Our party is not going to heal, it never will.

Stuck in 04

[tishaLA]

67. Yes, a posting that proves a point is a "pile on"

for god's sake. It's like a painting of St. Sebastian, only in written form.

Edit: Changed "thread" to "posting." One is accurate, the other is not.

[TwilightGardener]

83. Yikes! I was not on DU then, but interesting to see that the real-time

reaction for a lot of DUers watching it happen was similar to mine--just a really bad moment for the guy, and the media took it and ran. There were people predicting on that thread that his campaign had been killed right then and there, and they were right. (I did have to LOL at "Rowdy Roddy Piper on crack"!)

[CreekDog]

113. I was on DU back then and got rocks thrown at me for saying Dean was

A moderate, and less liberal than John Kerry.

And he was. But his true believers didn't want to hear that. I didn't have a problem with it, Dean was tough rhetorically but very restrained policywise. Probably would have made a good president, maybe someday he will be.

[Honeycombe8]

107. I saw it live, too. From the start I thought it was hysterical. No one had to tell me.

I didn't realize it was a candidacy-ender. But still, it was very unusual, over the top, and was just funny is all.

[patrice]

26. Sad thing about politiks; being a regular person with feelings

is ". . . not quite right . . ."

[TwilightGardener]

28. It is sad--but I am conditioned to expect a "Presidential" demeanor (however

one defines it) from a candidate--especially in trying moments, like concession speeches--whether that's fair or not. Failure to uphold this demeanor momentarily shouldn't disqualify someone, and that speech would not have been a deal-breaker for me if he had ended up the nominee, certainly--but the bad moment did stick in my mind and cause a negative gut reaction that I couldn't easily dismiss. Again, maybe unfair, but Presidential campaign politics are so much a personality and looks contest, it's hard to ignore any shortcomings. I'm hoping that works in our favor against the Repubs this time around--WE have the cool, rational candidates, and THEY have the gaffe-prone lineup of cross-dressers, plastic Ken dolls, unhinged psychos, and sleepy/dopey old Grampas.

[madfloridian]

32. Well, you will get that now.

.

[karynnj]

46. That is no different than last time

"I'm hoping that works in our favor against the Repubs this time around--WE have the cool, rational candidates, and THEY have the gaffe-prone lineup of cross-dressers, plastic Ken dolls, unhinged psychos, and sleepy/dopey old Grampas."

you can't get much cooler or rational (or classier), than Senator Kerry - and you can't get more gaffe prone than Bush. Just watch debate number 1.

[karynnj]

45. But that was after he got 18% to Kerry's 38%, in a race that he was

favored to win. The highest I can find any one in print predicting for Kerry was that he had a shot at getting number 2 if lucky.

[Name removed]

129. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TwilightGardener]

134. WTF????

Get help for your rage problem, jackass.

[BootinUp]

43. I was quite shocked at the scream

myself, I was watching it live, and instantly pulled up DU to see if anyone saw what I saw. But the truth is he had already lost by then.

[jefferson_dem]

8. I recall there was much made about electability.

Many Dems were considering who among their choices would be able to mount the most effective challenge to Chimpy in November. Kerry, with his "war hero" record, seemed to be somewhat immune from the typical "weak on defense" mumbo jumbo. We all know how that panned out...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. You Nailed It

eom

[karynnj]

47. No one talked up Kerry before Iowa

The Rasmann reunion was within days of the caucuses - that had a major impact on Kerry's image. You are also ignoring that it was a year where national security and foreign policy were important - Kerry had 20 years on the SFRC and had long been one of the Dems who spoke on talk shows on foreign policy. Kerry had also written a book on global crime, including non-state terrorism (some things written in the last 6 years now make the same points he did in 1997.) He had led to the closing of the criminal bank where OBL had millions.

Now list the foreign policy credentials of Dean and Edwards. To say that it was Kerry's 35 year old war record is unfair to Kerry. What that Silver Star story did show was how carefully he planned ahead to avoid the ambushes, where following the existing policy led to manydeaths and injuries. His Bronze star showed that he had the character to risk his life to save someone else from certain death. The value was what it says about his character. (the devotion of people like Clealand showed he still had those characteristics.)

[jefferson_dem]

55. Hey, now.

I wasn't arguing that Kerry's war record was the only factor that voters considered when they perceived him as more electable. I definitely agree with your points on his other FP credentials. My point was that perceptions of electability was the overriding reason why Kerry won Iowa and Dean lost.

Here's an interesting read, from just after the Caucuses --

...

The most significant reason for the upset of Dean has to do with the stunning pragmatism of Iowa Democrats. Polls discovered that electability was most often cited by caucus-goers as the main reason for their vote. In other words, Iowans who voted Monday night were most concerned with choosing the candidate they felt had the best chance of defeating President Bush in the general election. A candidate’s stand on the issues was less important.

In the two weeks leading up to the caucus, when most Iowans started to pay attention and admitted to making up their minds, Howard Dean looked anything but presidential. He snapped at a voter during a debate. He got involved in a nasty war of words with Dick Gephardt.

The anger that has inspired his faithful followers started to scare many undecided voters.

Aside from these recent troubles, many Iowans who really began to study the candidates and what they had to offer concluded that Dean might be burdened with other, more fundamental flaws that would make him an inferior opponent in November.

http://www.dailybruin.com/news/2004/jan/26/iowa-opts-for-electability-not/

[karynnj]

74. Sorry that I took the comment too literally

That excerpt is good - and it actually says the same thing I posted in other posts about Dean. Saying they want someone electable in this context is not a negative - it's saying they want someone who is acting as we want a President to act and has the qualities and competencies that are needed. I do think this grad student was naive in summarizing Kerry and Edwards by one factoid.

[lligrd]

9. Because Democrats, Including Many Here

fell for Rove's tricks.

[patrice]

11. Yep. nt

[incapsulated]

12. Ted Kennedy

lol.

Seriously, Teddy came in and whipped Kerry's campaign into shape on the ground.

I agree Dean seemed to have boots on the ground but not enough experienced people organizing the thing.

[MH1]

15. Kerry started getting great press, then Jim Rassmann showed up.

(you may recall that Rassmann is the guy Kerry pulled out of the water in Vietnam, under fire)

At the same time, Dean had some less than great press.

Here is the perspective of someone from the Kerry campaign:
http://journals.aol.com/outkast1564/ABiographyofJohnForbesKerry/entries/2005/06/06/iowa-caucus-part-1/390

Kerry's strategy worked because that Friday Kerry's trip in the helicopter appeared all across the state. Along with the story was a photo of him in a winter coat and a radio headset as he flew the helicopter. Kerry had made fun of Bush for playing dress up and landing on the aircraft carrier. Now here was Kerry, a real pilot, flying a helicopter: "The Real Deal", not someone just playing dress up. Also that Friday the New York Times reported that Kerry was "suddenly being taken seriously as a potential winner of the Iowa caucuses for the first time in months."

Dean started pulling the negative ads, although he wouldn't pull them all and the ones he did pull he just went back and added more with less negativity in the attack. Dean also kept appearing in sweaters, suggesting that he was taken over by fashion advice just like Al Gore was when he was told to switch to earth tones to make him look more, quote, "manly". Surely Dean knew that voters were not going to decide their votes on what he was wearing. But Dean was, after all, following Harkins advice.

Another Dean campaign tactic was called the "Perfect Storm". 3500 volunteers had traveled from across the country to Iowa however they could get there to put on orange toboggans and go door to door to try to get Iowans to support Dean. This was suppose to the ultimate example of grassroots support. All the Deaniacs were going to spread out across the state, like the perfect storm, to persuade the people of Iowa to vote for their man.

According to Dean the race was deadlocked, but Kerry kept rising in the polls, while Dean continued to drop. All the while Gephardt had an ad attacking Dean for downsizing the Medicare program in Vermont when he was governor and refused to pull the ad. Dean was so rattled by the turn of events that he all but stopped holding events where he would have to interact with the audience. Kerry on the other hand couldn't get enough. He couldn't hold enough events where he got to interact with the crowd, event after event saw overflowing crowds, and he always spent time talking to the voters. Kerry decided to have his ad feature the Iowa governor Tom Vilsack's wife in it. In the ad she told the people of Iowa that "he'll fight for us". Kerry hoped between the ad and two more solid days of campaigning would help him win on Monday night. But nobody foresaw what was coming in the last 48 hours of the campaign, not his staff, or his friends, or his family, not even Kerry.

Much more at the link.

[madfloridian]

16. ""Our main objective was taking down Howard Dean... he was so far ahead"

A secret Democratic group ran an ad against Dean with Osama's face

"..."On November 7, 2003, a strange new group no one had ever heard of called "Americans for Jobs & Healthcare" was quietly formed and soon thereafter began running a million dollar operation including political ads against then-frontrunner Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean. The commercials ripped Dean over his positions or past record on gun rights, trade and Medicare growth. But the most inflammatory ad used the visual image of Osama bin Laden as a way to raise questions about Dean's foreign policy credibility. While the spots ran, Americans for Jobs—through its then-spokesman, Robert Gibbs, a former Kerry campaign employee—refused to disclose its donors."

.." 12/06/04
C-span2 LIVE
Campaign Advertising by "527" Groups

David Jones is saying --
"Our main objective was taking down Howard Dean... he was so far ahead... our concern was that maybe we couldn't fulfill our goal, but could take him down a notch... Gore, Carter all seemed to think he was the winner, so it looked like a cake walk for Dean - but we decided Xmas would be too over the top - but when he was taking a dive even before the scream, it seemed too dangerous to disclose the donors..."

[karynnj]

49. Gibbs was a FORMER Kerry person

The money was almost entirely from Gephardt supporting unions and all the key people on it - other than this man who left the Kerry team when Kerry fired Jordan.

Now that you have had fun with implying the donors were Kerry supporters - why not state that they weren't. The money was almost entirely from Gephardt supporting unions. The closest link to Kerry was that Senator Torrecelli gave money to both Gephardt, Kerry and this. There was even a donor who gave to it and to Dean!.

This was a UNION based group as much as anything else. In the fall, when the ads were commissioned and made - who would have been the likely beneficiary? Kerry was polling on a level with Sharpton. In Iowa, it was a Gephardt/Dean fight. I doubt that Gephardt knew anything about the ads - it would be illegal. It does make sense that these unions would favor Gephardt over Dean.

Kerry did criticize the ad.

[madfloridian]

64. Tell it to Charlies Lewis of Center for Public Integrity.

"...."Americans for Jobs was a street rumble after dark, in which donors or fundraisers for the major Democratic presidential candidates then overshadowed by Dean—Kerry, Rep. Richard Gephardt, and retired General Wesley Clark—all piled on. Labor unions that had publicly endorsed Gephardt accounted for a fifth of the money—the International Longshoremen's Association ($50,000), the Laborers' International Union of North America ($50,000), the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers ($100,000), the International Association of Ironworkers ($25,000) and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers ($5,000). A former Dean donor, former Slim-Fast Foods businessman S. Daniel Abraham, gave $200,000. Past Kerry donor Bernard Schwartz, chairman of Loral Space and Communications—the tenth leading donor to the Democratic Party, giving $5.3 million over the years—chipped in $15,000. A top money chaser for Wesley Clark, Alan Patricof, also donated to this shadowy group.

Indeed, a Center for Public Integrity study of the 28 contributors to Americans for Jobs found that they have given more than $8.7 million to the Democratic Party in recent years and another $550,000 to the committees of those running for president."

http://publicintegrity.org/report.aspx?aid=194

[karynnj]

72. Read this closely

It says that DONORS to other campaigns funded this. This does not say that the candidates had any involvement - which, incidently, would be illegal.

Even here, the bulk of the money is from Gephardt donors. In fact the past Dean donor gave $100,000, the past Kerry donor $15,000. So, was Dean in on it too. The information on the past Kerry donor is weirdly written - in fact as he gave so nmuch he is a past (very many Democrats) donor. (The past Kerry donor also gave money to Leiberman for President - giving each of them $2000 (Newsmeat) means he wasn't 100% behind Kerry).

It's interesting that he puts Kerry first when there are fewer Kerry donors than there were donors of others.

This is also guilt by association - just because people gave to a candidaet than this to stop another does not imply that the candidates knew of it or asked it. Lewis makes the case that some people who didn't want Dean set this up - it does not prove any candidate did anything.

[madfloridian]

75. I would not have argued if you guys were not beating a dead horse again.

I don't really care. It was mostly strategists and consultants, but it WAS candidates also. They knew perfectly well what was happening.

Dean's campaign was never argued by me to be perfect. That is exactly why we were on board and stayed there. He was human, and the others were pretty much sounding like robots.

All of a sudden this is starting up again, and he is not even running.

[karynnj]

76. It was not the Kerry people who brought this up

I still say that your post proves nothing. It shows a past Dean donor giving $100,000 - a past Kerry donor, who contributed millions to many Democrats giving $15,000.

From your logic, this means Dean is involved. If all you have is a guy who left the Kerry campaign unhappy and a mutual donor, you have nothing.

Where is the proof that the candidates were involved? (I assume they knew it was there when the ads were on.)

[madfloridian]

77. I simply quoted Charle Lewis of Public Integrity.

See how it feels to bring Kerry up now? I only posted a paragraph, and did not attack him.

Can you imagine how it feels to see all these posts about Dean after half my friends were banned here in 03 and 04 because Clark and Kerry folks ganged up and alerted.

People know it happened, but no one talks about it. So alert on me.

This kind of crap will divide us forever.

[karynnj]

80. There were very few DU Kerry people at that point from what I have heard

I have no intention to alert on you - and I don't think I ever have.

This is something where refuting it makes more sense. Your anger at Clark and Kerry supporters in 2003 and 2004, is not a good reason to hit back on this thread against the Senator himself. You are making a serious accusations. It is illegal for campaigns to coordinate with 527s. Your proof in underwhelming.

Lewis is saying:
-There was a campaign against Dean
- supporters of the other candidates funded it.

Both true. But - who do you think would fund it - other than Democrats who didn't want Dean, including a former Dean backer.

[madfloridian]

81. I did not start this thread.

But that was a very real action. The group was on C-Span.

I kept the blog posts from that horrible day we watched on C-Span. It was heartbreaking. The link to the video is in my post I linked.

Here is one of the notes made. It is the most striking one. It was angry day for all of us.

"C-Span was on today live with dem pacs and rep pacs on at separate times
describing what they did in the 2004 race for president. DAVID JONES,
remember that name until the day you die, formed a pac called Americans for
Jobs, Heathcare, and Progressive Values. This pac was formed with 22
undisclosed donors and $600000 dollars for the express purpose of taking Gov
Dean down. David Jones used this phrase many times and bragged about what he
did. He had previously worked for Clinton and Gore campaigns. He bragged
about this. This is the first time a pac was used to take another democrat
down in this manner. His own words. (I don't know exactly what he meant.)
This guy is bragging about the bin laden ads. The doners are undisclosed but
they were primarily backers of Kerry and Gerhapdt." (Those are David Johes own words...about the primary backers of the ad.)

I don't especially feel Kerry himself was involved, actually I never said that.

But I am sick and tired of being treated like I was never a Kerry supporter. We donated over a thousand to him, worked for him locally, distributed lawn signs, then bought more and redistributed after they were stolen.

I am treated by you guys like I never was a supporter.

This 04 stuff is sickening, and there use to be rules about bringing it up.

Dean is being sued by two groups of Democrats, and a member of the gay community though he was one of its staunchest advocates. If you think all this is accidental, I have swampland for you.

[MH1]

84. Nobody's beating a dead horse but YOU

Don't you think it might matter to people surveying tht 2008 Dem field, how the apparent frontrunner in 2003 managed to lose? That's what I thought this thread was about. Dean did lose - that's a fact. The question of "how?" is relevant to today's situation.

I'm sorry that you took it as an attack on Dean - perhaps you know the original poster better than I, but I just thought it was a history question for some insight to today's situation. (PLEASE let today's "frontrunner" implode!! Just sayin'.)

[madfloridian]

85. Then let's be fair. Let's have a thread examinng why Kerry lost.

Let's analyze each reason. Fair is fair.

See, yes, Dean did lose. Fact. So did Kerry. Fact.

SO if I start a thread about why did Kerry lose, will you be upset with me and others if it gets heated?

[MH1]

86. I am sure MANY of those threads will be started once a Dem nominee is selected.

I will probably just ignore them, or post rebuttals, depending on my mood. But it's fair for people to examine why we lost the election, and opinions will differ. Since many Clinton supporters have been bashing Kerry regularly for as long as I've been on DU, their smears and lies will not be anything new. Nor will the fact that smears and lies against Democrats are tolerated at DU, be anything new.

btw, I didn't notice Kerry folks attacking Dean in this thread. In fact I argued against the "scream" being what the media made it out to be. I believe my initial response on this thread is correct: Kerry happened to get good press, and Dean got bad press, at a crucial time. To go further, part of that was the candidates, but probably a bigger part was the shallowness of the media, coupled with different shades of luck. I don't believe the collective decision-making process has improved at all since 2003/2004, so we'll pretty much be stuck with what the media and luck give us, I guess. I'm not enthused at the way it seems to be turning out, and that matters more to me than some snipes on a message board.

[goddess40]

19. He was not in bed with the DCC

he wasn't one of "their" team players and since they couldn't control him they let him swing when the MSM went after him.

[paulk]

22. voters took a closer look at the candidates

and decided he wasn't the guy they wanted.

[Radical Activist]

24. Iowans saw Dean move to the middle too soon.

There was a point in December when Dean seriously started backing off the liberal message and image. It was bound to happen in the general election but he did it too soon for the primary. Iowans get to see and know candidates much better than the rest of the nation. They're usually pretty smart.

[sniffa]

29. because he wasn't hiLLary

[madfloridian]

30. Does it really matter after all? He's not running. He is being marginalized

by the very ones he use to be a part of.

So does it really matter?

After all?

We are learning to keep passion and caring out of politics, and to be firm and resolved in our centrist policies to win.

We will even let Bush bomb Iran to be tough.

So does it really matter? He did not win, that is all that is important to the party leaders.

[Sparkly]

31. I don't know, but I *thought* it was that video that "surfaced"

Just before Iowa -- so close that I'm not sure how much the polls caught all the reaction -- a years-old videotape emerged showing Dean criticizing the Iowa caucus... It was offensive to Iowans.

There was quite a bit of fighting between him and Gephardt, but I'm not sure it was ever proven where that tape came from. (Was it?)

Anyway -- a surprise like that can happen in any election.

[Ediacara]

35. Kerry mortgaged his house and used the money to help finance an attack ad with Osama bin Laden

Surprisingly similar to the smear that sunk Cleland.

Not that that's the only thing that happened, Dean's campaign was a vibrant mess, and Gephart helped finance the ad, but don't let anyone tell you that the beltway wasn't vicious with Dean.

[MH1]

38. Link to that lie?

Kerry didn't use the money to finance the ad you are referring to.

It was funded by the Gephardt campaign. The only link to Kerry is that a guy who left his campaign (because his buddy was fired as campaign manager) went to work for the 527 that later ran the ad.

[karynnj]

51. Kerry did not fiance an attack ad with OBL

It was a 527. It would be illegal for Kerry to coordinate with a 527 - and he didn't. the donors are public. Most were Gephardt supporting unions. Others gave to every single major candidate - including one who had given to Dean.(?!)

Kerry used his money to finance his campaign, his GOTV in Iowa and NH and to proiduce a few very nice ads on who he was.

[Ediacara]

89. I'm sorry, you're both right

It was four years ago and I melded several events into one. Kerry mortgaged his house, an attack ad was made, eventually it came out that a lot of supporters of Gep and Kerry financed the ad.

[sandnsea]

37. The media pushed every attack

that they were presented with, which took Dean by surprise after he'd been given such a honeymoon for so long.

Why did the media turn after Gore endorsed? Hmmmm...

And the orange hats have got to be the dumbest campaign strategy EVER.

[dflprincess]

41. Thom Hartman has pointed out that the media didn't turn on Dean

until he said in an interview that he didn't believe in the way corporations like GE were buying up media outlets and he would find a way to break that up. I'm inclined to agree with that observation.

[karynnj]

52. As Kerry pushed legislation in mid 2003 that fought exactly that

is sometimes given as the reason the media NEVER treated him other than poorly.

[madfloridian]

61. Hardball, Dec. 2003.

I have the transcript somewhere. Matthews took great pride in digging that out of him, that he would regulate media ownership.

[Radical Activist]

90. Kucinich took the same position in the first Democratic debate.

It may explain why Dean was pushed as the liberal candidate by the media for most of 2003 while Kucinich was ignored. Its insane the degree to which our elections are run by the media. The media helped create Dean and they helped destroy him.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

39. Becasue when push came to shove Iowans couldn't picture him becoming president

[BootinUp]

40. Neither

He made a couple gaffes that were widely discussed on the "news" and also there were a lot of dem insiders that were quietly or not so quietly working against him. In the end the voters decided he was not the safest bet.

[zulchzulu]

42. The campaign didn't understand how Iowa works

I was there.

Too many people signed on and weren't trained to go out an canvass well.

Joe Trippi was too scared that he was going to get fired that he holed by in Vermont and wasn't returning Howard's phone calls.

The orange hats on the untrained canvassers was a sign to Iowans to shut their doors and turn their lights out when the door knocked.

The Dean campaign made overly nice 4-color direct mail pieces that were sent in triplicate to Iowan mail boxes every other day.

The mainstream media exploited the "scream". But Howard was gaffing every other day on one issue or another.

What was particularly shocking was a TV ad that aired the last week before the caucus where Howard was filmed against a stark white background, hence bringing out every "flaw" on his face and actually causing a lot of TVs to buzz because of the unengineered use of "illegal white". It looked and sounded awful. It ran a LOT. Hint: don't produce an important ad in some guy's basement in Cedar Rapids.

There's a lot more to pick apart in the campaign, but the Iowa caucus demands that people SHOW UP at the caucus when they say they will. A lot of Dean caucus goers were no-shows. The caucus where I was an observer had the main Dean guy wondering where all the people were that he said were supposed to show up. We even delayed the caucus for 10 minutes or so to wait for them to arrive.

Iowa demands a very organized ground game and dedicated people who are willing to get out on a cold night and spend several hours sticking up for their candidate of choice.

[karynnj]

44. Those were 2 factors, but the other resaon was that

a lot of very good one to one campaigning by the Kerry, Teresa and their children paid off. Read Walter Shapiro's book or the other book on the primaries in 2004. Kerry was willing to speak with people for hours until they knew who he was. In person, he was very impressive. Also, in 2004, it was said the he won the annual poll taken of hotel and restaurant workers. He decidedly won as the person who was nicest to them and who they thought cared most about their problems. I have tried to goggle for this many times and can not find it. That and by many accounts, dean imploded - screaming at a heckler to "Sit Down" and not defending himself well on Gephardt's ads.

Here are 2 accounts of those last weeks. (The first was written by someone who later seemed to be on the Kerry team - but the sequence of events is accurate - except Carter very heartily praised Dean, but did not endorse him.)

1) This is an account from a Kerry person, but the key points can all be verified - the reunion with Rassmann was incredible.

With only four days left before the Iowa caucuses, Kerry left the Real Deal express behind to take care of business. He still felt he had territory that needed to be covered. He would now take to the air to reach the territory to be covered next. At 9:00am at the airport in Council Bluffs, Kerry climbed into the cockpit of a helicopter. When the helicopter took off, Kerry shouted, "Rock and roll!" As the pilot guided the craft into the sky, Kerry said "If you're game, I'd like to fly it a bit at some point." Of course that was another reason for traveling by air because Kerry loves any activity with a sense of adventure. And of course it wouldn't hurt that the photgraph to be picked off by the press before the caucus would show him, sure of himself, steady handed, in control piloting a helicopter. The night before in Des Moines at a jammed packed event, Kerry took questions for two hours. "We're staying here till the sun rises," he told the audience, "until we get you to agree". Meaning to agree to vote for him. He would ask for a showing of hands of those who were still undecided every so often. The hands going up were less each time.

Kerry didn't pilot the helicopter on the trip to Carroll where he met another group of undecided voters. After talking to voters there Kerry did take over the controls for the trip over to Sioux City. He also piloted the trip from Sioux to Adel, but handed it back over for the trip to Fort Dodge. He slept most of that trip. Kerry campaigned hard and was encouraged by new public polls released on Thursday that showed Kerry ahead, with the breakdown being Kerry 22, Dean 21, Gephardt 21, and Edwards 17. Maybe that is why Tom Harkin, who endorsed Dean early, told Dean to start pulling the negative ads now or lose. Harkin also told Dean he needed to wear sweaters instead of cheap suits to soften his image. That Friday, dressed with a sweater, Dean told a reporter "I would never want to follow Senator Harkins advice."
<snip>
According to Dean the race was deadlocked, but Kerry kept rising in the polls, while Dean continued to drop. All the while Gephardt had an ad attacking Dean for downsizing the Medicare program in Vermont when he was governor and refused to pull the ad. Dean was so rattled by the turn of events that he all but stopped holding events where he would have to interact with the audience. Kerry on the other hand couldn't get enough. He couldn't hold enough events where he got to interact with the crowd, event after event saw overflowing crowds, and he always spent time talking to the voters. Kerry decided to have his ad feature the Iowa governor Tom Vilsack's wife in it. In the ad she told the people of Iowa that "he'll fight for us". Kerry hoped between the ad and two more solid days of campaigning would help him win on Monday night. But nobody foresaw what was coming in the last 48 hours of the campaign, not his staff, or his friends, or his family, not even Kerry.
<snip>
Kerry had a full day of campaigning planned, and none of the events had been scheduled around veterans issues. The reunion wasn't planned and it was a last minute thing so the campaign had no choice but to reunite Rassman with Kerry at the Creative Visions Human Development Center in Des Moines. Not the best place for the reunion but the events were already scheduled. Now, with no explanations whatsoever there would be a reunion of two veterans who had not seen each other in thirty-five years. Another problem was the the reunion was set for 4:15 in the afternoon and the media had already been sent out Rassmann was on his way but no one had told Kerry about this. He didn't even know about the phone call to Washington much less the reunion. Finally David Wade realized Kerry had not been told so he phoned Del Sundusky who was traveling with the campaign and filled him in on what was going on and asked him to tell Kerry at at once. When Del Sundusky informed Kerry that Rassmann was on his way Kerry couldn't believe it - he hadn't seen him in three and a half decades. There was no way that Kerry could have prepared himself for what was about to happen next. At 4:30 with a crush of television camaras that showed up for the event, Kerry waited for Rassmann to appear. When Rassmann made his way through the people and television camaras he walked up to Kerry opened his arms to embrace him, and dissolved into sobs. The emotion was overwhelming as Rassmann, a big husky man, wept in Kerry's arms. Reporters were in tears. Eventually they spoke to a several of the interviewers.
http://journals.aol.com/outkast1564/ABiographyofJohnForbesKerry/entries/2005/06/06/iowa-caucus-part-1/390

2)



was in Iowa for the final weeks. Kerry, with an imposing assemblage of firefighters and Vietnam Vets at his back, had the best two weeks of his life as a speaker. I'm from Massachusetts and have heard Kerry's deep drone for years. Charisma on the stump is not his strength. For those two weeks, he was a spellbinder. Bigger and bigger crowds of Iowans were getting more and more excited. Edwards, who is a natural stump speaker, had a similar effect on his audiences.

On January 5, 2004, AP political writer Ron Fournier noted the wind at Kerry and Edwards' back, and dared to note that:

"The conventional wisdom ignores signs that Kerry is within striking distance of a second-place finish."


One other thing I witnessed. Iowans, proper and polite midwesterners, were getting mightily annoyed by the Orange-capped out-of-town strangers who were calling them night after night. I haven't seen many post-mortems that emphasized this factor, but I met Iowans who turned against Dean because they found those kids pushy. I'm just sayin...

http://www.minnesotamonitor.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2578

[fadedrose]

48. The Hillary gang

I was glued to the tv during the Iowa thing. The word going around was that Dean was not electable. The party believed this garbage fed to them.

I remember almost ALL the candidates picking on Dean during the debates, and they did so on somebody's orders, I think, because it was desired that the Dems lose in 2000 so that Hillary could run in the future. They didn't lift a finger to help Kerry in 2004 when the election was again stolen.

I remember James Carville on that CNN Program (now defunct) saying about Howard Dean, paraphrasing, "we have better candidates than him," and he made me furious. Clinton's henchman he is..

[karynnj]

54. They didn't attack him on "somebody's orders"

They attacked him because he was the frontrunner. I also saw Dean attack the others. Kerry did a great job in turning Dean's attacks on him into debate points for himself.

Also - saying you do not want to be a pin cushion - is not good.

[fadedrose]

57. Flabbergasted

Hey, thanks for responding. Nobody ever responded to anything I ever said before....doesn't matter whether you agree or disagree, you actually responded...a big day for me here !!!!!

[karynnj]

69. Well you only have written 32 posts!

Welcome to DU, by the way.

I do agree with you that at least some of the Clinton people were not helpful in 2004. Carville, both on his TV show, where he attacked Bush, but mostly whined about how Kerry differed from Clinton and didn't take Clinton's advise and in possibly passing stuff to the Bush team.

[madfloridian]

60. Crossfire was Attack Dean central. Every day. They called him crazy..

Tucker and Carville and Begala. It was a very ugly show and it was definitely turned into the central attack point to go after Dean.

None of the campaigns were very good, and no one has a right to make fun of his. None of them did a very bang-up job.

[fadedrose]

70. Dean

Maybe his campaign was bad, but his ideas were good. He really got to me. FIRST one to oppose the war, very committed to universal health care, believed in balanced budget. He spoke extremely well and from the heart - answered any and all questions.

I contribute a very small amount monthly to the DNC, only because of Dean. When they get rid of him, that's the end of my contribution.

My dislike of Hillary has spread over a bit to Bill, but not as strong. These two are moderate republicans and maybe that's why the media seems to love them. I secretly think Carl Rove is doing Hillary's campaign.

As far as Carville goes, I can't trust anyone who would marry Mary Matalin. He is no judge of character. No wonder he didn't like Dean.

[Capn Sunshine]

98. re : electable

We (The Dean campaign) did some polling early on which showed that if the theme shifted from "Change" to "electability" Kerry's numbers were very strong. Because of the nature of our organization, no one seemed to be able to make Trippi acknowledge this or devise a counter strategy. Now it's entirely possible that someone fed this to Kerry's camp. It was astonishing how fast they ramped up the "electability " theme after we saw the results. Hell, WE have poeple in the Hillary camp today , and I have no reason to think this wasn't the case back then.

[Debi]

50. You forgot about his greedy egotistical campaign manager

who made millions off of the campaign through consulting fees but refuse to leave Vermont in order to sort any problems in Iowa out b/c he didn't want to lose his upper-level position in the campaign.

Dean needed experienced folks who cared about his success and not their own pocketbooks and careers.

+++++

Kerry didn't always stay above the fray - remember "Howard's House of Waffles" site that was linked to the Kerry web site?
Kerry got a very needed boost when Michael Whooley came to Iowa and held hard-core trainings with staffers and volunteers. Kerry also did well by keeping his 'ones' happy while the Dean campaign switched tactics twice in the last month of the caucus campaign. (Remember the Caucus 4 Change cards and then the Neighbor-2-Neighbor calls that started w/three weeks left to go? I do it was a mess!)

I've said things in the past that hurt the feelings of the Perfect Storm volunteers and didn't mean to. The campaign should have thought out having thousands of people come from all over the United States and call/knock on Iowans doors (maybe they should have asked an Iowan if that was a good idea?!). They can't be blamed for an ill planned adventure.

[karynnj]

53. Those were 2 factors, but the other resaon was that

a lot of very good one to one campaigning by the Kerry, Teresa and their children paid off. Read Walter Shapiro's book or the other book on the primaries in 2004. Kerry was willing to speak with people for hours until they knew who he was.


Here's an account of someone who was there:

I was in Iowa for the final weeks. Kerry, with an imposing assemblage of firefighters and Vietnam Vets at his back, had the best two weeks of his life as a speaker. I'm from Massachusetts and have heard Kerry's deep drone for years. Charisma on the stump is not his strength. For those two weeks, he was a spellbinder. Bigger and bigger crowds of Iowans were getting more and more excited. Edwards, who is a natural stump speaker, had a similar effect on his audiences.

On January 5, 2004, AP political writer Ron Fournier noted the wind at Kerry and Edwards' back, and dared to note that:

"The conventional wisdom ignores signs that Kerry is within striking distance of a second-place finish."


One other thing I witnessed. Iowans, proper and polite midwesterners, were getting mightily annoyed by the Orange-capped out-of-town strangers who were calling them night after night. I haven't seen many post-mortems that emphasized this factor, but I met Iowans who turned against Dean because they found those kids pushy. I'm just sayin...

http://www.minnesotamonitor.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2578

[madfloridian]

59. Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean

He's not running, you know.

He's busy fighting off lawsuits from his own party and fro the gay community for which he has been a champion.

I love it when someone posts a post like this. It's amazing how everyone comes out of the woodwork with opinions.

Why is necessary to keep killing him all over again?

Was it because that speech at John Hopkins last night reminded people he can still evoke respect and passion in spite of the humiliation he has been put through by his own party and the media?

[madfloridian]

65. Who from 2004 do we go after next? Like what happened to Clark and Kerry?

You guys are not going to let 2004 go.

[LoZoccolo]

137. Which one blew a 25-point lead in two weeks? n/t

[ecstatic]

68. Iowans don't represent America nt

[IndianaGreen]

73. They are lapdogs of the ethanol industry

They love to be pampered with sweet words about how wonderful ethanol is.

Never mind that it takes one and half gallon of imported oil to produce one gallon of ethanol. Iowa-ethanol-ADM Corp rule!

[IndianaGreen]

71. Because Iowans pick losers, and will pick a loser again next year!

Their dismal track record, coupled with their unrepresentative demographics, are enough reason to bounce the Ethanol State from being at the front of the line every primary year.

Let's do it right next time and scrap the current system for one having rotating regional primaries.

[wisteria]

79. Our candidates in 2000 and 2004 were not losers. n/t

[IndianaGreen]

87. Kerry threw in the towel in 2004, and Gore was pressured to concede in 2000

Amazingly, Kerry is still saying that he didn't think Ohio was stolen, despite the strong evidence to the contrary.

Instead of voting for someone against the war in Iraq, Iowans voted for Mister Electability.

This year, Iowans will do it again. Instead of voting for a candidate that will end the war in Iraq, and oppose having a war in Iran, the ethanol peddlers will pick Ms Electability.

Instead of voting for an agent of change, they will vote for an agent of the status quo.

[nolabels]

130. With them ideas in hand then it makes sense of that front runner status........

The status quo ( ie. the contemptuous establishment or what ever you might want file them under) as is loathe to give up anything just because it makes sense. That status quo won't give up position till it's taken away, bank on it.

[CK_John]

78. People did not like his wife, her too busy for politics attitude cost him the nomination. n/t

[madfloridian]

82. She was Jewish, also. And a doctor.

Any excuse is a good one.

I am going to get together some things I did not like about candidates and their wives.

If you guys can do it, so can I. I have all kinds of opinions about the boring non-passionate campaigns that did and said nothing.

[XemaSab]

88. I think we had the people and the funds to run a really sophisticated campaign

But instead it was like we were trying to get someone to vote for a school board rep.

I think going door-to-door was a good strategy, but calling people--especially just to "take their temperature"-- was a bad deal.

I think the missing factor in the Dean campaign is that people don't want to be talked at, they want to be listened to. Voluneteers were told to go out and give the hard sell, but when I was going door-to-door, I found that you'd get a much better response if you asked people about themselves and what they wanted in a politician. :shrug:

Ask me next week and I'll have a different answer. ;)

[Capn Sunshine]

91. I'll tell you the whole story

It's far more complicated than the two simplistic reasons you've heard, although those were certainly factors. I had worked for the Howard Dean campaign since late 2003. I observed many things about Iowa that were new to me; I had never invested that much time in an Iowa campaign before. When I was with Gore/Asshole we left it to the locals, and the same with Clinton/Gore.

We did have a lot of young (and not so young) enthusiastic people on the ground there. Most were well received, but still, they were new to a campaign, and Trippi really emphasized keeping the vols motivated by having little contests regarding "conversions" so many of these folks felt pressure to report that their contact had resulted in a definite commitment when in reality maybe that person hadn't even planned on going to a caucus or, due to inherent Iowa politeness, just did not cut the volunteer off during their evangelizing. Vol took this to mean mission accomplished.

The unbelievable pressure from all the early attention was NOT what Trippi expected; he was hoping to run a campaign, innovate a few things to enhance his resume and rep as THE tech guy to have in a campaign and well, ride off into the sunset. Instead he's working with a campaign full of zealots with an actual belief in winning and dealing with being declared the frontrunner. Howard had hoped to deliver his "message" and as well ride off into the sunset, and was as taken aback by the frontrunner status as Trippi.

Pre Iowa, Trippi was getting a bit squirrelly IMO. He was chain smoking again and drinking at least a 12 pack of Diet pepsi a day; neither of these were good for his condition as an insulin dependent diabetic. Trippi emphasized one thing about Iowa: he did NOT want the whole thing to fall to the state Iowa chair for Dean, as he wasn't impressed with her. Ironically, Trippi got signed up with Dean because beyond internet, he was THE MAN as far as Iowa primaries went. People don't realize that Trippi was not close with Dean; it was a major piss off that he would not take Howard's calls for days. The campaign at Burlington was a place Trippi felt he was driving the bus, but Trippi was such a pain in the ass that he knew there was huge sentiment to get someone in who could work with everyone and at least was on speaking terms with Howard. He thought if he left the main HQ there would be a coup and he would be out ( he was right, btw) So Trippi decided he was NOT going to Iowa. His initial take on the organization there and the squishy nature of Howard's support made him urge folks to skip Iowa and focus on Hew Hampshire, but we felt that was paranoia- perhaps medical in nature. It was not the only irrational thing Trippi had said or done.

So the Iowa game plan was left to the Iowa people who were good at two things: rallies and phone banking. Neither is particularly effective in a caucus state. Mike Ford ( the guy who came to Iowa instead of Trippi, who had literally vanished as far as I was aware for the three weeks preceding the caucuses) was up to his neck in alligators; everyone wanted to be a chief, no one wanted to be indians, no one wanted to strategize, and there were thirteen "firebases " full of volunteers with cell phones , and each had their own leader. It was a cluster fuck from the word go; no one thought despite my urging to canvas specific neighborhoods in the larger cities in Iowa; the notion had come up from the net that we should be spread out all over the state, a presence in every precinct.

After a week or so Ford took a look at the numbers the Stormers were generating and realized that the Trippi idea of keeping pressure on the ground troops for conversion was not working out; as I mentioned previously the whole thing reminded me of boiler room tactics and Iowans just aren't responsive to that. They are reticent and upright people who depend on each other, not some zealot who either had no life or dropped his life to go to Iowa and drop in on folks like a Jehovah's Witness. I tried to communicate this to Burlington but people thought I just didn't understand Trippi's brilliance. My people who had gone on this odyssey were reporting back that there was no top down organization, that there seemed to be this expectation that the whole strategy would just evolve organically, which would put us closer to the people. There was no training except a 15 minute crash course, so the net effect of the "perfect storm" was we had over 3,000 people with no training, and a borderline crazy obsession about Dean, who were actually impeding the work of the campaign at ground level. Instead of focusing on what Iowans wanted to hear, the idea that bubbled up from the net was that we would tell Iowans what WE believed.

Now, Iowans are practical by and large, and as I said, unfailingly polite, so there weren't any true negative experiences, but the whole idea of getting your locals organized and assuring the turnout, even organizing car pools if you had to, demonstrating you had a concern and an understanding of Iowa through your local support, none of this happened. We made a lot of noise, got all the press , but the fatal thing was no top down support. This did in the Dean campaign, and it is something that emerged with Obama's organization who have many of us from The Dean campaign in their ranks. Obama knows the danger of harnessing a "movement". The Dean campaign was too internet driven, there was no actual control from above. This was due to the fear of pissing off the netizens and closing the donations off. Obama's campaign has realized early that our net support needs direction and that the tail can't wag the dog. Howard was expected to spend time with the perfect Stormers as their reward from coming and all, and this kept him from spending that time with the actual Iowans.

Caucus night. A night which will live in infamy. We had Dean supporters ready to go, they were enthusiastic, they were supportive, and because Deans campaign worked outside ( and was resented by ) traditional party structure, there was literally NO ONE who had caucused before. The thing about caucuses you must understand (which no one did) is that it's party driven- the organized party wonks, the folks who do the ground level coffee klatches and populate the local Democratic clubs, who run the county and state chairs, this is all for THEM. Not a bunch of people who just got into politics. Bottom line; no one amongst the Dean campaign's caucus goers had any idea what to do, and the party people weren't about to help them. They went to these meetings and the Kerry people, who were in positions of authority throughout the State party, ran the caucuses like they always did, and it kind of happened around the flailing Dean people who were almost bumping into each other. This is a bit of an exaggeration, because there were some people who knew what they were doing, but mostly, no one did.I lost my voice that night screaming into the phone instructions on how to caucus to get to the attendees. This while I was hosting a "victory " party at my home over 100 people, catered event, the works. Net result; third place. Trippi MIA the entire week. No one at the caucuses with the experience to organize the vote effectively. The whole thing driven from the bottom up and not the top down. Spending money like water on the Perfect Stormers . THAT idea also came from the net. When I asked them how this was going to work, the reply was "well, read the blogs. They are coming anyway" Coup de grace was some excellent advertising by the Kerry campaign ( remember the "Volvo driving, latte sipping pierced ex hippie" thing?) Trippi didn't want to counter that , mainly because he was too worried about staying in charge in Burlington to think about anything else.

In a sense, what we did in Iowa played right into the hands of the enemy, who exploited our mistakes and magnified them to the point that it was easy to stick a knife in the back of the campaign with "the scream". We all know that that was edited to sound like he was just nuts, that he was actually screaming at the top of his lungs just to be heard, and that sound bite was reproduced and edited and sent to every radio station in the country by the next day so it was on every drive time radio show in the land. WHO was responsible for that , I'll never know. But who was responsible for failure in Iowa? That would be us.

Post mortem conference call: "This was a campaign that ill-served its candidate," I remember one acolyte from Burlington saying. Dean was a forceful and appealing candidate but he just didn't get out there enough. He was doomed by out lack of Top down support. Tom Harkin (who was fucking great though the whole process, even though he remarked to me that it was a crazy show and he hoped the votes would come out of it), commented " you are lacking any structural integrity." Then there are those who say, yes, the campaign was awful, but it was awful because of the "insurgent/empowerment" philosophy that Howard and Trippi believe so strongly in, even at the expense of building an actual "old school" campaign organization. We had the charisma of a movement. We were rebels, morphing like a crazed computer, becoming self aware. Experience meant you were from the "old school" and your methods were automatically suspect. Like the flower power movement which generated via word of mouth in the 60's, if it was establishment, it was bad. The on-ground field work, the boring crap that still needed to be done, no one wanted to operate that way. So this giant organic movement lurched around instead and no one on ground grasped the mechanics of it, except those of us who had been there, and we were always over ruled, often shouted down. To bring it round to the OP, the take away from this wasn't so much Dean lost in Iowa, but that the campaign because of its nature was destined to implode and Iowa was the first step. No one wanted to play the "old school" politicking that is required, no one even called half the Democratic officials to try bring them on board, no one contacted the centers of the spheres on influence who could actually deliver votes, none of that. Kerry's people knew how to do this. So did Trippi , but he was MIA in Iowa. The rest is history.

Any questions, Herman?

[Debi]

93. THANK YOU!

Understand that the campaign did have some folks working for it that had done this before, but when complaints/suggestions were made they were ignored AND new staffers with NO experience (or aptitude) for campaign work were handed over to them. We had a great original crew in our county - they enjoyed their work and each other AND they worked to integrate themselves into the community and get people to see/hear what the Dean campaign was about. But close to the end, as the campaign expanded, the people coming in were strangers to the staff and to the community AND didn't want to know about caucuses or caucusing - just turing out #s.

You are dead on w/regard to caucus night. Although I was comfortable w/the caucus (having participated 2x before and my husband had been participating for 30 years), the Kerry campaign had it's precinct captains prepared (having held trainings beyond the party caucus trainings).

:hi:

[Herman Munster]

114. thanks for the write-up, it was great

You say:

Howard had hoped to deliver his "message" and as well ride off into the sunset, and was as taken aback by the frontrunner status as Trippi.

Do you think that the frontrunner pressure was getting to Dean by December and that he had second thoughts about whether he wanted to be president and either consciously or sub-consciously allowed his campaign to self-destruct? Was losing a relief to him?

[Capn Sunshine]

118. From my experience, Dean had problems with the whole idea

It wasn't just Howard, Trippi did too. Howard never really accepted the whole netroots messiah thing , he realized as an experienced politician that he needed to get beyond that "movement" thing and get it into a campaign thing. But he was locked in. He had a message, he was getting tons of money from the net but the campaign was caught between the "movement " aspect- the desire to do things from the ground up ( It's YOUR campaign" Trippi used to state) and the practical aspect- traditional meetings, compromise with various groups, many political decisions to get the votes.

But Howard didn't so much self destruct subconsciously as much as the movement was stuck at "we're a movement" and unable to progress to the next step. No one had any plans for that next step. Well, lots of us did, but converting that into action was impossible because of the unwieldiness of the campaign. So the result was implosion.

[PassingFair]

92. This is the best I've read on the subject:

I'm sorry I don't have the attribution, and all spelling errors are mine:

"Could you describe what you think happened to Dean's campaign in Iowa? Who was the source of the
private money? And what was that money spent on that damaged Dean's campaign?"

Ans:

"Apparently, decisions were taken in DC by a variety of people who for different reasons did not
want an outsider (outside DC) to take the nomination at the point when Dean's poll numbers went
way up in mid November, 2003. It would be one thing for Dean to come in at the bottom of the first
tier, quite another for him to "win" the caucus. This included Congress persons as well as Senators not
involved in caucus or primary battles, but it also included some from Labor, K-Street connected folk,
Big check democratic funders, DLC types. They didn't all support someone else, the only agreement was
-not Dean. Thus the money to Gebhardt to run the negative ads against Dean -- ads way beyond Gebhardt's
actual fund raising ability . Gebhardt knew he wasn't getting traction, but he allowed his campaign
to be used as a stop Dean vehicle. If you remember, Governor Vilsack did not endorse. However the Political
organizing brains of that couple are the property of Mrs. Vilsack, and her effort was based on the
relationship she had with long term caucus goers and of course her access to lists, that network, etc.
What she did was not expensive -- it was classic organization below the radar. It involved yes, selecting Kerry as the
desired candidate -- and getting quiet commitments to attend caucus, and join a Kerry sub-caucus. Much
of Gebhardt's support was thus shifted to Kerry. It also involved positioning Edwards as the
Liberal/progressive alternative to Dean, helped along by Des Moines Register endorsements, some Labor endorsements and all.

A number of Minnesota DFL'ers helped out on this (which is why I've heard some stories) by going
to Iowa to phone bank in the weeks before the caucus. Regular caucus goers were pushed
toward Kerry and/or Edwards -- away from Dean and Gephardt.

Part of Dean's problem was his campaign's lack of experience with the caucus system. Too
many of their supporters (Iowans) had never caucused before, found the rules strange, and thus
had problems turning numbers into delegates. Trippi organized for a primary, and a caucus is not
a primary. Too many outsiders (orange hats) took the visable lead, with some resentment from
Iowans -- and Mrs. Vilsack's efforts very much exploited this sensibility. All of it worked to
decrease Dean's strength in the critical period between New Years and Caucus night. I don't think
Dean's people fully understood that all the pressures were coordinated, and this was largely
because he had too few Iowa experienced Caucus experts close to the top of the campaign, who
could have read the signs of what was happening.

There are many lessons to learn from what transpired that could easily apply in 2008. If we have
too many candidates center left and they don't have a common strategy, it could easily happen
again. The proper strategy to follow in Caucus system is to agree among essentially like minded
candidates sub-caucuses to collapse into one BEFORE the count finishes so as to maximize a
position and not a personality. But when passions run high for one candidate, it is hard to teach the
utility of such a strategy."




Of course, we don't have too worry about having too many candidates running "center left" in
2008, LOL. So these lessons will NOT apply this winter, but this is as good a take on things
as I have read ANYWHERE. I am sorry that I don't know who wrote it. As it is, I had to type
it out (Not copy and paste!) :cry:

[Capn Sunshine]

95. What many failed to see was that DEAN was not left of center

he was supported by many who were left of center, but his fundamental positions were right down the line centrist.

I agree regarding the powers that be theory, but without our campaign's lack of organization it would have been hard to pull it off. We were done in by the very thing that made us different.

[PassingFair]

97. His stance on the war pulled him over the line despite his

..."fiscal conservatism".

He was/is to the "left" on the things that matter to me.

Church/State Separation
Health Care for U.S. Citizens
No Pre-Emptive Strikes
Pro-Choice

[Stop Cornyn]

94. Dean's support was deep in narrow pockets rather than mid-level across the board. The caucus format

penalizes this type of support.

Polls count raw numbers and do not account for the disparity between deep support in narrow (urban, college, etc.) areas as compared with broad support all across the state (including rural areas).

I think Obama may under-perform in Iowa for the same reason.

[Capn Sunshine]

96. I agree with your theory except

It's Hillary whose support is lacking at the caucus level. This judging by numbers shared with us from the Edwards campaign. It will be surprisingly tight. Read my post above about the campaign then; we won't be making those mistakes this time around. Obama is very much aware of where his support is. So is John Edwards. Hillary, through my highly partisan lens, seems to taking the "Inevitable" meme to an extreme with the party faithful , and this is creating some blowback in the rank and file.

If you Hillary guys don't think we know about La Maccina in Des Moines and that you have that sewn up, I beg to differ.

[PassingFair]

99. Kick ASS in Iowa, Cap'n!

We had a district-wide meeting here in Michigan last week.
There was not ONE dem in that room that is happy with our
situation here.

We'll see if there is anything we can do about it.

We believe that Granholm and Clinton have conspired here
to make her "juggernaut" look invincible. And ZERO democrats
are happy about it.

[Debi]

102. Careful Capn....

You don't want to piss off La Maccina. x(

[Capn Sunshine]

105. far from it

unless we are missing something, the Maccina vote is far from sewn up. Of course, everyone takes away from a meeting withthose guys what they want to hear......

[Herman Munster]

115. but doesn't Hillary have the power establishment in her court?

She's got Vilsack and his wife running all over the state. Surely, they have contacts from their campaigns that are going to be useful to her organizing the caucus. And from what I've heard they are going right down the Kerry playbook in organizing the caucus to win.

[Capn Sunshine]

119. Well yes, but there's blowback from the strategy

Many , particularly what I get from rural caucuses, indicate a saturation with all things Hillary and Obama as well.

Certainly Hillary has a big handle on many of the power spots as you put it, but not all. Remember John Edwards is also extremely organized in that regard , as well as Obama , who has inspired a lot of folks firsthand.

But at this stage, Herman, I thin both our campaigns are in danger of overloading the Iowans.

So the best strategy would be to take a couple of months off. :evilgrin:

[Debi]

100. Although I have concern for Obama with regard to his high amount of young supporters

I think the campaign has studied the Dean debacle and is working to keep their 'ones' solid as well as keeping the young voters involved and ready to attend caucus (either where they are living during school or where they'll be living during the winter break).

[Capn Sunshine]

103. shhhh....

That strategy is top secret. Although flamingly obvious. Believe me, we have people in Iowa who GET IT. It's their show, national is there for support. We learned from the Dean campaign , all right.

[Debi]

106. Sorry - didn't mean to give away campaign secrets

:hide:

No matter who comes in 1 - 2 - 3 in the Iowa Caucuses, the more young attendees the more the Iowa Democratic Party grows (just look at 2006 and how many under-thirty legislators we elected!)

People forget that presidential preference is only one small part of the caucuses. They are used to build and organize the party AND set in motion the platform procedure for the state convention.

[JNelson6563]

101. I don't know but it's a shame.

Imagine election night 04.....Ohio's all screwed up.....come morning do you think Dean woulda thrown in the towel like Kerry (before they were even done counting votes)?

I don't.

Julie

[Capn Sunshine]

104. I know for a fact YOU wouldn't have

But it was almost conspiratorial how those 15,000 attorneys on graound disappeared into the night in the face of Ohio , Iowa and Florida's suspicious trunarounds in the early AM.

If that happens in Michigan, Julie, I expect to show up with attack dogs.

[JNelson6563]

116. The funny thing is

Sadly I'm not in an area where much happens in the way of shenangans but guess what. We had a lawyer in every single precinct in 2004 in my home county.

I only wish I had a handle on a bigger part of the world Cap'n. ;-)

:loveya: :hi:

Julie

[Myrina]

108. Diebold.

Kerry was supposed to be the nominee. It was pre-arranged between the Dem and GOP party machinery that it would be a Bush/Kerry race, and that Blivet would "win".

:puke:

[Capn Sunshine]

109. interesting; however caucuses don't use voting machines

Diebold is a legitimate problem but that's not why Dean lost Iowa.

[2rth2pwr]

110. Dean is now the head of the Dem party machinary- he must have been in on it too.

And it is rumored that Dean was the one who secretly ordered Building 7 to be "pulled".

[Debi]

111. OMG so somebody hacked MY machinery??

:blush:

Iowa holds a caucus, no voting machines are used :hi:

[JNelson6563]

117. We're they frat brothers or something?

haha

[ISUGRADIA]

128. Knowledge is a good thing

No secret vote in Iowa, all voters declare a candidate in the open, no machines used.

[CreekDog]

112. his supporters, that's one of the reasons I moved away from him

To Wesley Clark.

Good chance I would have voted for Dean in the primary had he still been in the running, I thought he was a good, smart and savvy candidate, but his supporters, man, most of them came on after I was interested in him, they were true believers and condescending...some of them, many of them, wow.

[madfloridian]

121. Odd way to judge a candidate.

I frankly found the influx here of Clark supporters in 03 overbearing, and many of my friends were banned trying to defend themselves.

Sorry you feel that way.

Anything after 3 or 4 years we can do to make it up to to you?

Sorry you were treated so badly.

Just kidding of course...:think: :think:

[CreekDog]

123. I told you I didn't judge Dean by his supporters but some of them were a prob

others have said that very thing.

I also said that I liked Dean personally and politically, but his campaign which was genius in its movement qualities initially, became a liability later.

[madfloridian]

124. I am saying the same thing..

about supporters of others, especially the ones who came in droves here for Clark. Many of the old-time Deaniacs here are here no more because of all the alerts from two groups of supporters when most were defending themselves.

Don't you think I sound silly saying that? No more than you do.

And to be fair you actually did say that:

"his supporters, that's one of the reasons I moved away from him
To Wesley Clark."

[CreekDog]

126. i was judging the campaign not the candidate

there is a difference.

And no, the Clark supporters weren't perfect either. I was at a gathering and they were all upset with Gore when he endorsed Dean and almost took it personally. I just said to them, Gore's a good guy and he picked who he was going to pick and probably choose the guy who was most unlike Lieberman. Ironic, but I'm sure that's what it was about.

[CreekDog]

127. No I don't think you sound silly doing that

And the posters "defending" Dean didn't bother me either, it was the posters who savaged other candidates and harassed other candidates' supporters. I know that goes on here with all primary candidates, but there's always particular candidates that seem to draw the supporters who call people who don't agree with them DLC'ers, whores, various euphemisms of stupid, etc.

Dean was the guy that had the most of those supporters last time around, this time it's Kucinich. I didn't notice it as much from the Clarkies last time or this time (before he endorsed Hillary).

What really surprised me is that in 2002, I was the one telling everybody about Dean, I actually liked him more back in 2002, before it became a cult of personality that I think he bought into a little bit and that unraveled his candidacy with the media ever eager to pile on and make a comeback impossible.

[JaneQPublic]

120. Also: A 4-year-old tape of Dean criticizing the Iowa Caucuses

One of the network new operations exhumed old footage of Dean taking part in a panel discussion on some Canadian local news channel where he denigrated the Iowa Caucus system. It was played over and over again, and soon after his poll numbers there began to plummet.

[bklyncowgirl]

125. Yes, I was going to mention that but you beat me to it.

I doubt Iowans thought much of Dean essentially trashing their beloved caucuses. I also agree that the overenthusiastic volunteers and the nasty head to head with Gephardt.

It was something of a perfect storm. I've also thought that Dean's statement on Hardball that he wanted to break up the media conglamorates may have been the beginning of the end. He won me over with that interview but it must have made interesting listening for the media moguls.

[madfloridian]

122. More questions that need answers.

Why did Kerry concede the next day? That was very painful.

Why did Clark skip Iowa and spend time in NH during the Iowa caucuses?

Why why why?

But it's done now.

[Seabiscuit]

131. I was there. Our campaign volunteers had nothing to do with the problem.

It was a combination of Gephardt operatives, Kerry operatives, and right-wing operatives. Period.

Why do you even have to ask this stupid question?

[LoZoccolo]

136. Of course you don't think so; you were one of them. n/t

[BadgerLaw2010]

133. The Dean campaign significantly overcounted its number of true "solid" supporters.

Trippi started to realize this in the days before the caucus.

If you just have a bunch of lukewarm support, you aren't going to win in a caucus situation, because you need to actually argue for your guy.