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Edited on Fri Nov-02-07 06:33 AM by Sparkly
This primary is unfolding pretty much the way we could expect. It's just the way the game is played. But it's worth thinking about how the game is played so that WE don't get "played," ourselves.
In general, I think it goes like this:
1. The media pretends the frontrunner is "inevitable," and has the whole thing clinched. That helps dramatize their storylines, but we know it's not true. It's far, far from over, and anything can happen.
2. The GOP starts saying, "Oh yes, please nominate that frontrunner, we really hope to run against that horrible candidate!" They did this with Dean, too. It gets Democrats all in a tizzy about electability, trying to guess what the GOP really wants.
3. Our non-frontrunner candidates start to "go after" the frontrunner. That'll heat up more and more as Iowa gets closer. The frontrunner generally sticks to contrasting him/herself with the Republicans. Nasty tricks can start turning up (mysterious fliers left on windshields at candidates' events, push polls, etc.) but nobody is sure who's responsible.
4. The "gotcha" games heat up, focusing on very specific little details about anything -- anything at all -- in order bolster accusations of lying, exaggerating, evading, flip-flopping, or some other distasteful personal characteristic. The MSM and other candidates opponents push for old tax returns, medical records, kindergarten report cards, you name it, knowing it’ll be resisted, and then ask suspiciously, "Why is he/she hiding this?"
5. The MSM gets hysterical, overplaying every little exchange between candidates and campaigns, spinning stories even where none exist. Actual policy differences (if any) are given little discussion in favor of plots involving personal rivalries and emotions.
6. The frontrunner points out that they’re being attacked by the others. This response is the farthest they can go to be perceived as something of an underdog campaign, and it’s usually leveraged for fundraising. (“Help us fight back!”) Dean talked about “pulling buckshot” from his rear end. Groups, associations, pacs and parties sometimes take the same strategy.
7. The frontrunner tries to lower expectations, pointing out that he/she is “taking nothing for granted.” The others pretend the frontrunner is acting as though the race were over, accuses them of arrogance, and reminds everybody no votes have been cast and they’re still viable.
8. Websites start to pop up claiming to tell the “real truth” about candidates, smearing them in every way possible. (If there isn’t one about your candidate yet, there probably will be.)
9. Once there’s a nominee, it’s very difficult for many supporters of opponents to get on board. The nominee isn’t good enough, there’s not enough difference between the parties, and it’s voting “for the lesser of two evils.” (And, in the general campaign, many of the above tactics are recycled.)
10. People of all stripes act like none of this has ever happened before!!
(Rinse, spin, repeat.)
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