Out of 44 Iowa polls this year, only three favored Obama: All three are Washington Post-owned

[antiimperialist]

Digging through the list of Iowa polls this year I found an interesting statistic:

44 polls have conducted this year. Only two have found Obama leading the pack. These are:

ABC/WP, released today, has Obama up by 4%

Newsweek, 9/26-27: Obama +4. This poll was conducted roughly at the same time as an ARG poll found Clinton ahead of Obama by 6%. Thie ARG poll was conducted 9/26-29

ABC/WP, 7/26-31, Obama +1, conducted roughly at the same time as an ARG poll that had Clinton up by 9%.

Conclusion? Perhaps the WP methodology is unique and favors Obama more so than other pollsters.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

[tritsofme]

1. Did they all use the same pollster?

Or is it just a coincidence?

The WaPo sponsoring doesn't necessarily equate to the same polling company being used.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. If He's Winning In IA He's Winning In IA

If the poll is an outlier we will learn fast enough...

[antiimperialist]

6. the other WP and Newsweek poll have been proven outliers fast enough allright

:-)

[bunnies]

3. sigh.

Cant let Obama supporters have 10 minutes in the sun? I mean... I dont even have a candidate but... for crying out loud!!! What gives around here?

[bluestateguy]

4. We need to cut down on polls all together

We need to go back to the days when polls were rare.

[tritsofme]

9. Why?

As far as I'm concerned more people having more access to more information is a good thing.

Whether or not people can correctly interpret information and its significance is not my problem.

[Captain Hilts]

5. Interesting. I wonder how they balance their sample compared to the others. nt

[Frances]

7. I've been told that it is very, very hard to poll

Iowa caucus goers because it's hard to know who will actually show up at the caucas. So, it's possible that the Washington Post/Newsweek (owned by the Post) polls are legitimate.

That said, I lived in the DC area during Bill's two terms and the Post did everything they could to undermine Bill. The lowest blow came when Bill was just entering the White House and Chelsea was a young teen. A Post reporter wrote that Chelsea had fat legs. I have never forgiven the Post for that comment. The Post also printed all the false stories about Bill trashing the Presidential plane, stealing from the White House, etc with no rebuttal.

[depakid]

8. "it's hard to know who will actually show up"

That's particularly true this year, because in their infinite wisdom, Iowans set their caucus for Jan 3rd.

At the very least, that's going to affect the youth turnout.

[The Ghost]

10. Umm

"Perhaps the WP methodology is unique and favors Obama more so than other pollsters."

or maybe the WP is the honest one, and all other polls are rigged to favor Clinton?

[Colobo]

11. It's called denial...

[DURHAM D]

12. Are they the same group that said 60% of Clinton

supporters are first time caucus goers? I find that stat impossible to buy - way more so than the Obama leading stat.

[CyberPieHole]

13. kick and recommend for McClurkin...n/t