Obama and Hillary tied in NH!

[zanne]

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/poll_hillary_and_obama_tied_in_nh_mccain_sneaking_up_on_romney.php

Great news!

[SteppingRazor]

1. Makes Iowa all the more important.

Whoever wins there will likely -- not definitely, but likely -- pick up NH as well.

[itsrobert]

2. It's going to be hard for Edwards to win NH

But you maybe right.

[SteppingRazor]

4. That's very true. An Edwards win in Iowa makes NH crazy. Actually, it probably helps Hillary...

I think Obama voters are more likely to defect to Edwards than Hillary voters are -- which means Obama would lose a few voters, Edwards would gain some, and Hillary would come out on top.

[ccpup]

5. I've actually been curious about that

Is that historically correct? Does the person who wins Iowa usually go on to pick up NH as well? I've always thought of those in NH as having a more "we'll choose who we want regardless of what others have done"-type of mentality.

It would be interesting to see how the trends between who IA chose and who NH chose in the past prove or disprove that theory.

[SteppingRazor]

7. It is not true that the Iowa winner WILL win in NH, but it IS true that the Iowa winner...

will receive a significant bump in NH. And if the NH race is really that close, then the bump from Iowa will be enough to secure a winner.

If the race wasn't as close, though, it might not be enough to make a difference.

[zanne]

9. HIstorically, NH does NOT follow Iowa....

Actually, the way it usually goes is that NH doesn't give a damn what Iowa does. We're a little snobbish up here about what an actual "election" is, and "caucus" doesn't have the same status as "primary election".

[ccpup]

3. from the link

linked to by the TPM site:

Counting only those who say their vote is certain, Clinton narrowly leads Obama, 20%-18%. Edwards is backed by 10%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-12-20-NHpoll_N.htm

still a very close one, though

[suston96]

6. One poll maketh not a tie, nor anything else...

Your headline should read: New Gallup poll shows Obama Hillary tie in NH.

Other polls in NH show something different.

[zanne]

8. And when some polls show Hillary ahead....

There are other polls that show Obama ahead.

[zanne]

10. Having lived in NH all my life,

I have no idea who'll come out on top. You just never know around here. Most people in NH make up their minds as they walk into the poll booth. (No pressure).