Hillary's Lead Shrinks in New Jersey!!!

[cali]

by slinkerwink
Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 06:12:59 AM PST
Straight from TalkingPointsMemo:

A new Rasmussen poll shows that Hillary Clinton's lead is shrinking in New Jersey. Here are the numbers, compared to Rasmussen's own poll from two weeks ago:

Clinton 49% (+4)
Obama 37% (+10)

I think that Hillary will still win New Jersey, but by a much closer margin than anyone thought possible. I say that she wins New Jersey by 5%. New Jersey has 127 delegates at stake, and winning by a close margin in her backyard doesn't bode well for her. It remains to be seen whether this margin can be tightened further before February 5th.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/1/998/74906/990/447525

[MonkeyFunk]

1. From Rasmussen to TPM to KOS via Slinkerwink

Here's the direct link

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/new_jersey_democratic_presidential_primary

[featherman]

13. Keeping closing... Obama needs to cross 40% to get the best

delegate count - nobody sensible expects him to win but a near even delegate count would be great - looks like a lot of undecided yet

[adabfree]

15. New Jerseyan here

Definitely voting in primary and definitely voting for Obama...

My family is definitely most Obama supporters with a few Hillary supporters sprinkled in.

[bernicewilliams]

2. Translation: Even after Hillary's worst 2 weeks ever, Obama trails by 12%! n/t

[agdlp]

4. Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 62.2% chance of winning - Obama 37.6% chance

:-)

[NoBorders]

9. And I was stoked when that figure was reversed after Iowa

Clinton definitely still has the advantage but that number is very fluid.

[vi5]

3. I'm in NJ...

I have no plans to vote in the primary. While I appreciate the historic implications of either one of them winning, neither do the slightest to inspire me personally. But was surprised to hear my wife say she was planning on going to vote in the primary just to vote against Hillary. This was really the first I had heard of her dislike at least in the degree.

[HughMoran]

5. I expected to see a 3-6% margin when I opened this post

Obama needs to get it tighter than that if he's going to keep within striking distance after Feb. 5th. I think he will, but I am wondering if he has enough momentum to pull out a "win" (more delegates) on Super Tuesday.

[cali]

6. no. he won't win on ST

all he really has to do is keep it close, and by that I mean by about 100, 150 delegates.

[HughMoran]

12. Do you think "close" will give him more wind in his sails, or less?

You know the media and the pundits are going to talk non-stop about "momentum" if Hillary takes the lions share of delegates on Tuesday. I realize that Obama keeping it close on Tuesday will increase his "viability index" among people in the remaining states, but what about the "inevitability index"? Will Obama lose his momentum if he loses by 100 to 150 delegates?

[Clintonite]

7. Quit dreaming! There is no way he will win N.J.

[cali]

8. Did anyone say anything about him winning NJ, cupcake?

NO. I didn't. He doesn't need to win in her backyard, he just needs to come in within 10 points to pick up a lot of delegates and show that she's vulnerable in her home territory.

[suston96]

10. NJ RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nj/new_jersey_democratic_primary-246.html

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 01/09 - 01/30 - 47.0 30.5 Clinton +16.5

[thevoiceofreason]

11. Is New Jersey one of the states where you can split the delegates?

If so, does Obama have any stronger congressional districts there that can help?

[featherman]

14. All are... if a candidate finishes over 40% the delegates split nearly evenly

[Barack_America]

16. I'm canvassing for Barack in NJ tomorrow!

We're going to get that lead even smaller!