New Virginia & Maryland polls

[ShadowLiberal]

I just now spotted these new polls on RealClearPolitics, sorry if any of these have been posted before.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_democratic_primary-507.html">Virginia polls
SurveyUSA, taken 02/07 - 02/08
Clinton: 39
Obama: 59
Overall Obama +20.0

InsiderAdvantage, taken 02/07 - 02/07
Clinton: 37
Obama: 52
Overall: Obama +15.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/md/maryland_democratic_primary-514.html">Maryland polls

SurveyUSA, taken 02/07 - 02/08
Clinton: 33
Obama: 52
Overall: Obama +19.0

[JohnBreauxDemocrat]

1. What do you think about this.

eom.

[tyne]

2. WOW

[Nimrod2005]

25. Happy thoughts all around!

[TexasObserver]

3. Obama should win Maryland big. If he takes Virginia big, that's news.

[Honeycombe8]

34. Be careful with looking at polls. We've seen they don't work anymore....

I support Obama, but I've seen several times now that polls don't work anymore. I wasn't disappointed at all with Super Tuesday results. I thought Obama beat expectations and won! Why did I think that? Because I hadn't seen any polls "predicting" a CA win (which I would've known was false, anyway). I thought he'd be doing great if he got 40% in CA. He got OVER 40% in a high-Latino state that Clinton had sewn up just a month ago! Fantabulous!

Polls don't work.

[Quixote1818]

4. Kick nt

[HughMoran]

5. Yeah, I was mentioning earlier that Hillary is getting killed in those states

Those have been up for most of the day.

[NJSecularist]

6. Over 150 delegates at stake in those two states

I could see Obama getting 95, Hillary 55.

[jasmine621]

7. I just don't think Obama has really earned the hype he is getting.

The Clintons have worked their butts off for the Dems, the country, and social human rights and health causes around the world. They have championed causes for children, women, blacks, gays, and the poor. And for this, an ungrateful nation smears you and turns its back on you. Sad

[FrenchieCat]

8. I just don't think you are informed on such matters......

In another thread, just now, you were telling me how Obama was so pro war and so pro Israel, and you were incorrect.

I just don't think that you have bothered to really read up on Obama and the issues...like others have.

That's why your opinion on "hype" doesn't matter. You haven't done the homework.

[elizm]

11. He has earned it every step of the way. It certainly wasn't handed to him...

He wasn't the annointed candidate to start, remember. He EARNED the respect of the voters...and it is sad how the Clintons have tried to smear him and take that away. But they can't.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

12. Is a Clinton Dynasty worth losing congress again?

because that is what Bill and Hillary will do for us.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. you just continue to pull crap out of your azz...

thread after thread. I hope you're being paid handsomely. :eyes:

[Skwmom]

18. Yeah pushing "free" trade, has helped keep children employed

world wide through slave labor. Their free trade has helped create more poor people in America.

[workinclasszero]

28. Yes I am so grateful to Bill and Hill for ramming NAFTA...

..down our throats.

That "free trade" horse*hit eventually shut down the steel mill I used to work in due to foreign competition.

Now I make half the money I used to, lousy health insurance and zero pension. This permanently harmed myself and my family.

Yup I owe the Clinton's alot. I've paid them back in the Missouri primary by voting for Obama.

If the dem party doesn't lose its collective mind at the convention, I look forward to voting once again for the next President of the United States: Mr Obama!:party::applause::woohoo:

[usregimechange]

9. Solid leads

[catagory5]

10. Yes he is gonna steam roll

But it aint gonna be no big split liek OP stated. Maybe 60 40

[CatnHat]

14. No surprise

It was already assumed that Obama will probably win these states days ago. The big states Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas are the ones to watch. If the trend hold true, Hillary Clinton will be picking up a whole bunch of delegates in OH, PA, WA, and TX. :popcorn:

[cali]

15. Nope. He has three weeks to close the gap

in TX and OH. And the latest poll shows him only behind by 10 in TX. In WA today, he'll win. And he'll likely win 8 out of the 9 Feb contests and have all of the momentum going into TX and OH. He'll win Vermont big and likely pick up RI. Then he has 6 weeks to woo PA.

[bigtree]

20. you assume Clinton is standing still in those states

remember, all the momentum didn't help him in California. He's still trailing Clinton with Latinos.

Interesting how you give him credit for the states he's expected to win and not Clinton for the states she's been polling well in. Wishful thinking, I suppose.

[cali]

23. He has lots more time. And of course his momentum helped

him in CA. He went from being 30 pts back in Dec, to being 20+ points back most of Jan to ending up 10 pts back. That's a big boost.

And he's now only 10 pts back in TX. He's trailing her badly with the latino vote, but she's trailing him worse with the AA vote.

It seems you're the one who's nervous about your candidate's prospects. About the only states she stands a good chance of winning are OH, TX and PA- and I don't think she can win by more than 10 pts in any of those states. The calendar just doesn't favor her anymore.

[Dawgs]

24. 'Don't forget about California and Latinos'

If that's the best you've got then I feel even better about Obama's chances.

[cooolandrew]

16. Woooo, he's soaring out of sight. Breathtaking. =)

[Hailtothechimp]

17. Hee Hee Hee....WIPEOUT!

This won't be a good day for Billary.

[MH1]

19. Careful...polls have been badly wrong before.

I suspect it will be closer than these polls indicate, and thus the Clinton team will try to spin a "win". Just like the Obama team (rightly) did with MA and CA.

OTOH, if the margin is wider at the end of the day, THEN we'll be able to say "BLOWOUT!" :)

[workinclasszero]

21. Awesome!

GOBAMA!:bounce:

[BringBigDogBack]

22. Damn.

Awesome!

[JCMach1]

26. It's about attrition now... Hillary needs 40%

in these primaries to stay in the delegate hunt...

[legin]

29. I think maybe Obama needs to lead by 150 delegates

when the convention starts.

The superdelegates seem to be splitting 2:1 in favour of Clinton. (say 550 to 250, a gain of +300)

I think it would be slightly iffy politicaly if one candidate lead going into the convention by X delegates, and the other candidate won at the end of the convention by less than X delegates.

If Obama leads by greater than 150 then the superdelegates will block-vote for Obama, if not they will block-vote for Clinton.

(Maybe ???? )

[JCMach1]

31. This involves some 'new math' though... whither MI and FL

At some point the shite will hit the fan over this... :(

Ultimately, I think there will have to be a deal of some kind to get the nomination... Ultimately, we may only be looking at posturing on who will take the #1 spot on the ticket.

[legin]

32. That's a point

I forgot about Florida and Michigan.

As you say that could be really sticky.

[Nimrod2005]

27. Both states and DC vote on Tuesday of next week?

[Major Hogwash]

30. Wow, those are impressive numbers.

I didn't know Maryland would be that big of a difference.

[Honeycombe8]

33. Polls don't work anymore, folks. Haven't we learned that by now? Cell phones,

and caller ID, and anything else you can think of. For whatever reason, the polls don't work anymore. Pollsters won't tell you that, of course. That's how they make their money.