CBS/NY Times Poll: Bush 46%, Kerry 38%, Nader 7%

[TheStateChief]

Kerry way up on jobs/economy, Bush way up on war/terrorism. Lots to see in the breakdown.

Sucks not to see our guy on top, but as I've said from the beginning it is early and the polls in Ohio and Florida matter more than the national polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/15/opinion/polls/main606469.shtml

[TomSeaver]

1. I'm more interested

in state by state polls. Show me a poll in FL or OHio etc

[David Dunham]

2. Forget Nader. He'll end up under 1%. Look only at JK v. Bush.

[lancdem]

6. I do hope you're right

I couldn't handle a repeat of 2000.

[TruthIsAll]

40. Bush 46, Kerry 43 Registered voters; but JFK wins with LIKELY voters

I have seen other polls where energized likley voting dems will pull JFK in.

This poll is flawed. More Reps than Dems.


(CBS
KERRY VS. BUSH: CHOICE IN NOVEMBER
(Registered voters)

John Kerry
Now
43%
Two weeks ago
47%

George Bush
Now
46%
Two weeks ago
46%

Much of the electorate has already made its decision. 71 percent of voters backing Kerry or Bush say their minds are made up now.

[Frodo]

52. The NYTimes poll contains too many Republicans?

I somehow doubt it.

I've also never seen a legitimate nationwide poll where "likely voters' broke more our way than "registered voters" or "voting age".


Just ignore the poll for what it is - irrelevant. Nader gets a big bounce because he was in the news and it's the thing to do this week. He won't come close to that in November.

[Carl21014]

3. Damn him

F ing NADER!!!

He's going to hand Bush the election again! I hate him!

[He loved Big Brother]

11. I think you need to get your priorities straight

More DEMOCRATS voted for Bush than for Nader in 2000. Never forget that.

Nader is nothing but democracy at work. So Kerry will have to work a little harder to court those votes...so what? Does he think he's just entitled to them??

To me, it's a bad sign if your guy can only win if the field of candidates is narrowed.

[Democat]

15. That's all great in theory, but Nader voters have blood on their hands

People died because idealists voted for Nader.

As long as you are fine with innocent people being killed so some rich egomaniac can see himself on TV, then keep on believing that Nader is good for America.

Also, what is with your comment "your guy"? Isn't Kerry "our guy", or do you have some other guy in this race?

[He loved Big Brother]

27. I'm sorry, I was referring to ALL voters

Stop trying to blame democracy as a whole for the 2000 election not delivering the votes to Gore. Gore won the popular vote DESPITE Nader, despite Dems voting for Repukes, despite some Dems not voting at all, and as for Nader himself, I have yet to hear him say anything I disagree with, nor do I detect any ego from him when I hear him speak. A friend and I were watching a speech he gave on c-span, and couldn't help but make sarcastic comments such as "will you listen to this egomaniac? I swear, he doesn't give a s**t about aaaaanybody but his damn self!" Because it's laughable to those of us who actually listen to Nader when we hear people call him an egomaniac! In fact, he seems to have much more concern for the common man than anybody else in this race now that Sharpton is out.

Kerry is my guy, but only by default. As usual. Most of the people I know who voted for Nader were voting for their first time and therefore aren't traitors or deserters to the Democratic party. I pray Kerry takes notice of that fact and doesn't have a sense of entitlement to people's votes, otherwise he won't work for them (and as a result, he won't get them).

People died because DEMOCRATS voted for BUSH. Many more times than they did for Nader.

[He loved Big Brother]

28. Oh and-

As long as you are fine with innocent people being killed so some rich egomaniac can see himself on TV,

Kerry voted for IWR...is he the rich egomaniac that is fine with innocent people being killed so he can see himself on TV that you are referring to?

Voting for PATRIOT ACT and IWR, and then thinking you deserve to hold an even higher office...now that's an ego!

[zoeyfong]

46. Right, and it's sickening how many dem voters are willing to look the

other way. So what if Kerry joined the brick and bat wielding mob demanding the blood of a convenient scapegoat? So what if he signed on to mass murder follwed by chaos, likely civil war, and increasing terrorist threats? What's the big deal? At least he's one of ours.

[zoeyfong]

45. No, people died because Kerry and others supported Bush's rush to war.

It's sad the lengths some people (and parties) will go to to avoid taking responsibility for their own actions. Look, I voted for Gore in 2000, (i will *not* be voting for kerry in Nov.) but the democratic party really needs to figure out that it is responsible for getting people to vote democratic. No other candidate is under any obligation to drop out so that the democratic party will 'automatically' get their votes. And no person is under any obligation to vote democratic, election after election, because dems are the 'lesser of two evils.' Democratic candidates have to earn their votes like anybody else. Frankly, Ralph Nader is speaking to a lot of issues the dem party refuses to address (seriously, anyway). And what does the dem establishment do about this? Do they incorporate those issues into their platform and forcefully and honorably advocate the principles of that platform? No; they whine and blame Ralph Nader for stealing 'their' votes. Geez, is it any wonder dems are shut out of power?

[pansypoo53219]

24. he liked dean

maye we can have the dr visit him.

[bluestateguy]

4. Thanks Ralph

And thanks to your latte-sipping, sushi-eating, Communist sympathyzing, backpacking through Europe, New Age freak show supporters!!!

[Simard]

44. wow an argument with piercing logic

[newyawker99]

58. Hi Simard!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Forkboy]

72. That's ok

last week the poster was saying he wouldn't feel sorry for kids killed if they voted for Bush or Nader.

Welcome to the New Democratic Party!

[lancdem]

5. State polls are more important

But to see Nader hurting Kerry like this is depressing.

[PA-DEM]

7. I question any poll that has Nader at 7%

I believe I will take a pass on this poll and wait for the next Gallup or Zogby.

[surfermaw]

12. I agree with you!

[Used and Abused]

39. I hate to rain on this parade but..

these numbers need to be taken VERY seriously. No denials or wishful thinking will do. The question is what can we do to get Kerry as high as possible in the polls.

[robbedvoter]

8. Another "get used to it" Diebold poll

[JohnnyFianna1]

9. Nader's seeds have been planted- Another Victory fo rthe Bush

[TheStateChief]

10. I Agree That Nader Is High...

but as a Dean supporter I have had this bad feeling all along that enough of the people he sold on his campaign would have trouble buying into Kerry and would look to Nader. I doubt that Nader will even be on many ballots and I'm hoping that, if all he is trying to do is make a statement, he will contain his campaigning to California and New York and other states that won't be contested.

[ngGale]

73. Also agree with you about Nader and Dean and...

the young Edwards supporters. I like you had more than a feeling that the younger ones would not go for Kerry. It seems to still be holding true. And I'm an Edwards supporter, my daughter is a Dean supporter and she does not even want to vote. What to do? Nader can not win--but he sure can sink our boat. Must say I've always like Ralph, but this year is just too much to bear.

[Zynx]

13. I honestly don't believe that number at all.

Nader at 7%? That's ridiculous.

[Renew Deal]

14. Those numbers are bizarre.

And they don't match with anything that's been out recently. I wonder if it means anything.

[BootinUp]

16. It means a lot of people watch Faux News probably

I don't want to sound depressing but thats a little depressing. :(

[alcuno]

17. This used to be a CBS News Poll and now it's CBS/NYT Poll

There's a big drop for Kerry. Because they've joined with the NYT is there some difference in the way the poll is conducted? Seems strange. Also, although consistent, this is only a poll of registered voters. Why aren't they polling likely voters?

[NWHarkness]

18. That poll makes no sense

How did Kerry lose 8 points in the last 2 weeks in this poll, while gaining ground in every other one?

[lancdem]

21. I think that drop may be exaggerated

but there is another poll, from TIPP, that shows Kerry going from three up to three down in less than a week. It's at http://www.pollingreport.com

[PA-DEM]

29. This may explain it

Here's the breakdown (pdf required). Note (at bottom) that there are more Republicans than Democrats among the respondents, which is unusual. The MOE is 3.0%. Poll was taken between March 10 and 14.. Note also that Kerry has a slim lead among independents. So the atypical low Democratic representation in the poll is likely responsible for Bush's three point margin.



http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/election_0315.pdf

Total Republicans polled-376
Total Democrats polled-359
Total Independents polled-471

[Zinfandel]

19. Lot of work to be done and money to donate. It hurts a little now...it's

truly worth it in the long run, It's going to be a long ugly haul but we will WIN!!!!

Got to donate against this corporate republican fascist machine.

Got to.

http://www.johnkerry.com/

http://www.kucinich.us/

[ngGale]

74. It going to be hard getting people out to vote since...

they are apathetic and depressed. Kerry needs a vice that will attract the young vote, I know that already. All the old ones are gonna vote anyway.

[looking glass]

20. Don't buy Nader at 7%

The Perot experience sez that the third party guy gets far less support the second time around.

[alcuno]

26. I looked at the #'s and the Nader support is coming from independents

He had 3% support from Republicans? 5% from Democrats?? And 13% from Independents.

Personally, I think the 3% from Republicans is just wackos playing around with the pollsters.

[Township75]

22. Nader isn't going to get Jack-Shit in this election!

The problem with polls is that people know they can say whatever, and not have to worry about it. When it comes time to pull the lever, then their conscious hits them.

It's kinda like taking a poll and asking if you are in favor of higher fuel efficiencies in automobiles...no doubt, the result will overwhelmingly be yes by the same people who own, and their next automobile purchase will be, a SUV.

[Zinfandel]

23. Your absolutely right...he won't get over 1.1% and that's being generous.

Not this time!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

32. I tend to agree.

Nader has to make the ballot in every state. He'll find that a lot harder with no party apparatus supporting him this time around.

[zoeyfong]

47. Don't be so sure. Many people will not vote for a war supporter,

regardless of whether he is a dem.

[flaminbats]

25. another reason to support IRV...

this is a concept which should be supported not just by Kucinich, but by all democratic candidates. If our party made this part of the platform..not only would we win most of the Nader votes in 2004, but if put into law many of the votes for Nader would ultimately go to the Democrat.

I have read many good reasons our party should support this, but not one to oppose it! :shrug:

[IronLionZion]

30. time to register some more Kerry voters

if you aren't already. That's the only way we're going to win this thing.

[zulchzulu]

31. Nader voters...or...Bush's negative ads...

Time to start hammering...

[PA-DEM]

33. Polled more Republicans and Independents than Democrats.

Here's the breakdown (pdf required). Note (at bottom) that there are more Republicans than Democrats among the respondents, which is unusual. The MOE is 3.0%. Poll was taken between March 10 and 14.. Note also that Kerry has a slim lead among independents. So the atypical low Democratic representation in the poll is likely responsible for Bush's three point margin.



http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/election_0315.pdf

Total Republicans polled-376
Total Democrats polled-359
Total Independents polled-471

[flaminbats]

35. naturally polling should reflect the partisan leanings of Nader voters..

:puffpiece:

[Raya]

34. Someone has to stop NADER. The electorate is divided. Nader is deadly

to anti-Bush hope.

[Exgeneral]

36. Dean has done all he can

He's pointedly mentioned in several statements that voting for Nader is pointless.

I think Gen. Clark should say something to address this , and I wonder why Kerry hasn't.

[flaminbats]

37. We can stop Nader with his support....

I call it Instant Runoff Voting! :yourock:

Your vote against Bush could go to Nader, and your vote for change could go to Kerry!

[jsw_81]

38. Amazing

Fucking Nader dumbasses are going to ruin everything.

[Citizen Kang]

42. Yeah...

Screw them for voting their conscience!

[Simard]

43. Don't under estimate this poll

Don't be too quick to dismiss this poll.I know Nader at 7 percent is high but other polls have been putting him at 5 and 6 percent. This is not an inconsistent poll. As we move closer to November Nader's numbers will decline. However, I am somewhat worried that Kerry's negative tone is pushing away many centrist voters.

Kerry has to stand up to the republican campaign of distortion but he needs to do this in a way that makes him appear as a serious candidate with a serious agenda. Not just as someone skilled and effective at Bush bashing (no matter how accurate and fun it is). I think he is starting to do this and after the convention I expect the tone of his campaign to change and put forward a positive vision for the future as an alternative to Bush's lies and deception.

[mac56]

51. Yeah, look how well that worked out for us last time.

Voting their conscience got us the the worst *resident ever.

There is just too much at stake this time around for such sophomoric posturing.

[ordentros]

54. and some people say...

Kerry is ruining it for Nader! If Kerry didn't run, then Nader would have the whitehouse...

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

62. Yes and they're all drug addicts.

[fujiyama]

41. 7% Nader?

:wtf:

I call bullshit. This poll is simply way too far off. It doesn't correspond at all with other polls. It may be indicitive of a slight bounce for Bush, but I simply cannot see him getting that large a bounce from the terrorist attack in Spain.

Also the sampling is also way to skewed. While, I do think the GOP probably has an edge over the democrats in terms of registration, this poll is still off.

Nader will ultimately end up around 2% at most nationwide. He won't be getting more than last time that's for sure, and with the extremely slight chance he does, it won't be 5% more than last time. Republicans will NOT vote for Nader so the claim he's drawing from them is ludicrious. There are other third party candidates they would vote for over Nader, such as the Constitution party candidate or the libertarian.

[dusty64]

48. I'm sorry, I just

can't believe that nader would get almost 3 times more support this time than he got in 2000. He is not on any party line, has very little cash, and hasn't really been exposed too much on Pravda. I smell something funny.

[Monte Carlo]

49. Nader's polling numbers will shrink to almost nothing by Nov.

He only got 3% in the last election, and that was with lots of momentum in his favor, the support of the Greens and of populists like Michael Moore, and without 4 years of George W. Bush.

He's a gadfly on Kerry, but he can be contained.

[zoeyfong]

67. Dream on. Denying, blaming, and hoping is not a winning strategy.

[goodhue]

50. disappointing but not surprising

Name recognition is key in polls, both meaningless polls like this and actual voting on election day.

Nader has name recognition, so he will invariably get some support. I don't expect it will hold at 7% or be as high as 2000 but nonetheless would expect Nader to pull about 3-4% in many states including here in Minnesota. I've been saying this since last July and my thinking has not changed. Of course its but one of many reasons I've backed Kucinich.

I look forward to being proven wrong.

[ordentros]

55. and it's interesting to see

parts of the progressive community show their support through the progressive newsletter which probably helped Kucinich get 25% or more around the cities!

[mrgorth]

53. I don't get it

I know of no one, NO ONE that is voting for Nader this time.

[MadHound]

56. Do you want to neutralize Nader in November?

Then you have to offer something to the people other than fear. Rather than promoting ABB, give the people something to vote for. If you really want to bring in the votes, grab a couple of planks out of the Green party platform, you know, something like universal health care, and a living wage. Make these issues the Democrats own and you will neutralize Nader and the Greens. Most folks who are voting third party are disgruntled Dems who feel that their concerns are not being addressed and that they're being taken for granted. Offering up UHC as a compromise will bring most of these voters back to the fold, for they are pragmatic enough to realize that there will be something there for them.

Also, if you offer up UHC, you will bring in a good percentage of the non-voting public. A great many of these people are so poor that they realize that neither party wants them, nor will either party do something for them. If you offer these people something that will vastly improve their lives, like UHC, they will come out in droves. I would imagine that the Dems would pick up 25% of the non-voting votes, and that translates into 12 million people right there. More than enough to put Kerry in the White House, with long coattails behind him, pulling other Dems in also.

But you have got to compromise, and you have got to give the people something to vote FOR. Simply asking them to vote against Bush out of fear isn't going to cut it, people will remain disgusted and apathetic. You have to motivate people through their self interest, and by putting in a real UHC plank, people will see that the Dems are once again serious about helping out the little guy.

[Snivi Yllom]

61. To neutralize Nader, Kerry must go left

[Leilani]

64. But if Kerry moves too far left

he loses Indies & disgruntled Repubs.

[MadHound]

69. Sorry, but somehow I doubt that such a move would cost him much

If Kerry put a single payer health plan plank into the platform. Eighty percent of Americans are for single payer health care, fifty two percent say yes to it, even if it means raising taxes(this according to a 2003 NORC poll). Look people on both sides of the aisle realize that we need to do something drastic to improve our health care system, and if Kerry comes out swinging on this issue, I think that he would pick up a net gain of votes rather than a net loss.

Let us assume that he loses every single moderate Republican vote that he would have gained otherwise. He still brings in not only the far left(people like me who would otherwise vote third party, you know, that seven percent that is in favor of Nader, etc), Kerry would also bring in 12 million previous non-voters. Considering that only 110 million people voted in 2000, that would wind up with a net gain of 12.5%, more than enough to offset any defections that the Democratic party would suffer. And that would also mean long coattails nationwide for Dems. Do the math, it works out to a big Kerry win.

[progressiverealist]

57. this sucks...NADER WINS IT FOR BUSH

How can Ralphie not see this?

Nader is human scum. I hope he contracts an extremely painful disease and lives in excruciating pain for years.

[THUNDER HANDS]

59. anyone else but me notice that undecideds are almost 10%

Just the fact that Bush's re-elect numbers are below 50% should be good news for us.

[Snivi Yllom]

60. I hate to say told you so, but Nader would not be in if Dean was the candi

[fujiyama]

63. One poll by itself...

doesn't mean much. If on the other hand, Bush has a similar bump in other polls, then it is something to be concerned about.

[Demnocrat]

65. Fuck Nader

:mad: :mad:

[zoeyfong]

68. Right, if dems lose it's Nader's fault. The buck obviously doesn't stop

with Nader-bashing dems.

[notbush]

66. Bush spent 8 mil. last week on adds

Hate to say it but "money talks".
We've had a couple of months of publicity from the primaries...helped us in the polls.
Now we're gettin' down to paid adv. ....Bush has got a ton of money ....we'll feel it for a little while.
The pendulum will swing back and forth several times in the next 8 months.
Don't worry, be happy...

[cryofan]

70. If Nader goes anti-mass immigration, he will WIN this election

That is my prediction. And Nader has hinted he might go for a move against mass immigration and corporate immigration.

[ngGale]

75. I hate to keep harping on this, but Nader is a very real...

threat to the Dems. Depending on his Vice--there is a possibility that he actually could pull off a win. But, one sure thing is, he can upset another election.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

71. Nader's percentages don't worry me

Last year at this time, you'll remember, the frontrunning Dem candidate was Joe Lieberman. I said at the time that this was all due to name recognition, and I was right.

My guess is that Nader is the choice given by people who are against Bush but are lukewarm about Kerry. This election is Kerry's to lose, and he needs to convince them that he's not another wimpy Democrat.