Texas Reporting is not what it appears.

[Zynx]

In 2004, we got 2.8 million votes in the GE in Texas. So far we have 2 million votes in with under 60% reported. That would mean we would get something like 3.4 million votes in the primary at that rate. Ain't gonna happen. A lot of these reporting figures are not what they appear to be. Texas is probably closer to 80% reported than 60%.

[babylonsister]

1. Are early voting totals factored in? nt

[Zynx]

3. That's exactly why the totals aren't quite what they appear.

Remember when Harris County had 200,000 votes in with 1% reporting? That would mean we would get 20 million votes there. Not gonna happen. There will maybe be 350,000 in Harris County.

[Zynx]

2. Kick

[spooky3]

4. official secretary of state site

http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_state.htm?x=0&y=0&id=874

[Mother Of Four]

33. According to this page...

So far with the Primary results...HRC only gained a net of 1 delegate from the Tx Primary. (79 percent reporting) (1:11 am tx time)

<putting my head in my hands, and realizing that I really wanted this to be over today>

I guess I have to look forward to another month and a half of our people tearing each other apart :(

[caligirl]

5. Obama 's team predicted 3.4 to 3.6 mil in their math, so 3.4 is likely correct

[Zynx]

6. I VERY much doubt it.

[caligirl]

7. okay, if you don't agree, doesn't mean hyour right or they are wrong.

[Zynx]

11. We'll see in a couple hours.

[jasmine621]

24. How many "spoiler Repukes" in that total I wonder? nt

[Zynx]

26. Not as many as one would think.

[nomorewhopper]

8. texas dems didn't come out to vote in teh kerry/bush election because the results were preordained

they are expecting 3.4-3.8 million voters for the dem side alone in texas tonight - incredible, eh?!

[Zynx]

10. I will only call it incredible if it happens.

I am not seeing the evidence based on county reporting so far. I have yet to see a county that is 100% reported where we are getting more votes in the primary than the general election.

[nomorewhopper]

19. i think about a million votes were cast "early" as well...

but i'm not sure how those are counted and mapped

[Zynx]

20. They've already all been reported.

That's what the early results were early on in the night.

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. What about the caucuses? I haven't heard a peep about 'em

[Perky]

22. I do not think we are goingto hear about them untio tomorrow

[lastliberalintexas]

12. We always have more Dem primary voters than in the GE

In this state, you can't expect those totals to be similar at all. Local and regional races are often still decided in the Dem primary, McCain already had their nom basically sewn up, and the increased turnout of new voters would all point to higher than normal numbers anyway.

And just as in the past, a good chunk of our primary voters will cast their ballots for the R in Nov. Same as it ever was. :shrug:

[Zynx]

14. Less than 1 million in 2004 in the primary. 2.8 million in the GE.

[lastliberalintexas]

17. Really? I didn't remember that

Perhaps 04 was an aberration since Kerry was already a lock. I'll have to check other years. But I can tell you that what I posted does hold true for my part of the state, since local races are determined in the Dem primary, even in counties which will go Dem in the general only when hell freezes over. :)

[Zynx]

18. I've looked up virtually every primary. Your county might be different.

[babylonsister]

16. The numbers of primary voters were overwhelming this year.

People knew how important this is w/o an incumbent, and also because of the direction this country has gone.

This isn't the past; it's a whole new ballgame.

[tammywammy]

13. There was huge turnout in Texas for this primary

They told us tonight for our county the biggest primary turnout was in 2000 for the republicans at 84,000 votes. By the end of early voting last Friday already 87,000 people had voted in the democratic primary.

Plus in the general election, especially in Texas, democratic voters already knew that Bush was going to win our state, so they didn't necessarily get out to vote.

[Zynx]

15. Find me a state where our primary turnout has beaten GE turnout.

Find me one.

[Perky]

21. You are making things up now... Try deving into the details on CNN Houston is only at 30%

Dalls and Austin are at 70%

[Zynx]

25. I'm not making things up.

When I reported them that's what they were at. I don't fudge numbers, sir.

[Redbear]

27. Thats 30% of precincts not 30% of votes

They have actually counted much more than 30% of the vote.

The numbers get skewed by early voting, which is counted as one big precinct in each county.

[Zynx]

28. Thank you. I am being proven correct as the night rolls on.

[RB TexLa]

23. There have been some huge voter registration movements in the hispanic

community here since 2004.

[Zynx]

29. Everyone who doubted my analysis: Suck it.

I'm sorry, but I don't have to be gracious.

[bhikkhu]

31. You don't have to be gracious...but be more selective.

"suck it" is the expletive of a rapist.

Behave as if you would expect your candidate to behave and things will be better. We all have a long road ahead.

[GreenTea]

30. Exit polls don't lie....Clinton wins it....

PA is now the crucial state, (158 delegates).... PA now becomes a make it or break it state for both....

[madfloridian]

32. They haven't counted the caucus votes yet.

.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. Well, they have but they're not official yet.

Many aren't even reported yet.

I'm proud to say mine are! I won't keep DUers, or the rest America in suspense.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

34. The estimate going into tonight was 3.3 million total votes

I was shocked by the estimate, but in a good way. If we do end up reaching it or even exceeding it I'm thrilled.

After talking to my local election officials and precinct chairs tonight, I won't doubt anything is possible.

[Zynx]

36. It looks like we will fall way short of that.