Status of the swing states

[shawn703]

I've started keeping a spreadsheet of the latest polling information showing to which candidate the voters are leaning in each state. I have 179 safe electoral votes for Bush and 168 safe electoral votes for Kerry. (This is assuming there are really only 18 battleground states that are up for grabs this election.) According to the latest polling data I could find this is how these swing states would play out if the election were held today. As a disclaimer, if a state was going 47% - 45% between Kerry and Bush, I put it in the column of the person with 47% even though it's technically within the margin of error. (I put W. Virginia in Kerry's column though even though the latest polls showed them tied at 46% with Nader at 2%).

Kerry
Iowa - 7 votes
Maine - 4 votes
Michigan - 17 votes
Minnesota - 10 votes
New Mexico - 5 votes
Ohio - 20 votes
Oregon - 7 votes
Washington - 11 votes
W. Virginia - 5 votes

Bush
Arizona - 10 votes
Arkansas - 6 votes
Florida - 27 votes
Missouri - 11 votes
New Hampshire - 4 votes
Nevada - 5 votes
Pennsylvania - 21 votes
Tennessee - 11 votes
Wisconsin - 10 votes


That puts the current electoral count at Bush with 284 and Kerry with 254.

I'm thinking Florida and/or Pennsylvania should end up in Kerry's column in November, giving him the win. I would also like to hear if someone has more recent polling data in any of these states so I can update my little spreadsheet. ;)

Thanks!

(edited because I forgot Iowa in the original post.)

[David Dunham]

1. Kerry will win PA.

[LiberalFighter]

2. That would be more of a mandate than what gw* says he had

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. Don't count Arkansas for Bush

I live in the most conservative part of the state and have yet to hear of anyone supporting Bush since people saw their taxes. Our Republican governor has raised taxes and demanded that small school districts consolodate and lose their identity. Neither of these actions has been popular, and I figure it will result in a general anti-GOP backlash this fall.

[lancdem]

10. The most recent poll has Bush only ahead of Kerry by 2

in Arkansas. Maybe he does have a shot.

[Warpy]

4. PA, maybe. FLA, no

Not while Jebbie is in charge and running things there, that state will continue to be a banana republic and hand its votes to Jebbie's big brother.

Tennessee was within 1% the last time, so it's not automatically going to Bush. New Hampshire may go to Kerry, as may Arizona, where they remember what a Godwater Republican was and that Kerry resembles one more than Bush does. Arkansas may also go to Kerry, just for old (good) times' sake. North Carolina and Louisiana have both been very badly hurt by Bush's insane economic bungling, so they are no longer to be considered safe Bush states, especially if he persuades John Edwards to share the ticket.

It does my heart proud to see Bush wasting money hand over fist here in New Mexico on his saturation advertising for 5 electoral votes. Most folks here are getting thoroughly sick of seing his ugly mug on their TVs every half hour, and know what a lying bungler he is.

[mobuto]

5. Don't forget Wisconsin

Wisconsin is unlikely to go for Bush in November, if the election is close. And while I agree that West Virginia could likely go for Kerry, I think its premature to put it in his column.

[Adelante]

16. Why do they like Bush in Wisconsin?

Do you know the rationale?

[Onlooker]

6. Interesting and entertaining post.

I hope you'll post updates.

[WVhill]

7. Don't count WV yet.

Kerry's past gun control votes are a problem. That moved WV to Bush instead of Gore in the last election. The other issue that's problematic is the support for the troops in Iraq. It's off the scale. I'm not seeing folks upset about Iraq.

Keep in mind WV has one of the oldest per capita populations. 9/11 is still fresh in their memories as is Pearl Harbor.

[lancdem]

9. But older voters have the lowest approval rating for Bush

[WVhill]

12. It's going to be interesting.

WV is a Democrat state. Republicans are an endangered specie here. The Charleston Gazette had mini-interviews with students at a local high scholl. All favored Kerry. If they all vote, I'd say no problem. Seniors I've talked to aren't focusing on Bush's record. They're retired so the economy isn't an issue.

[Skittles]

19. UM

you don't think retired people are concerned about the economy?

[WVhill]

26. The groups that might go for Kerry

are the ones who might lose their pensions. The retired workers at Weirton Steel are an example. Unfortunately the company is in bankruptcy and Bush already put a tariff on foreign steel which the WTO forced him to lift by allowing EU nations to place retaliatory tariffs.
Kerry said he wouldn't restore the tariffs.

Other examples are the retired chemical workers in the Kanawha River Valley. Some of them are concerned about their pensions too. Kerry will have to decide if he wants to spend money in counties that in 2000 went for Gore. Like the national map, Gore took the major population centers in West Virginia, but the rural areas went to Bush. The other kicker is that the terrain makes targeting voters via normal media difficult. Some folks get only one channel unless they have satellite TV which doesn't have our local channels. By running ads on the local channels Kerry reaches, you guessed it, the folks who voted for Gore last time.

To take West Virginia, Kerry needs to spend the week or two needed to visit the smaller rural towns. That would bring favorable comparisons with the last JFK. The state Democratic committee can arrange that through the county organizations. Bush can't spend that much time in West Virginia because of the needs of the presidential office.

[pstokely]

13. wasn't there some coal industry propaganda in WV

nt

[WVhill]

27. supporting coal mining is a double edged sword for Kerry.

Mountaintop removal is a controversy working its way through the courts. By advocating clean coal technologies, and increasing demand for coal, Kerry has upset some environmentalists. Coal mining has been a mixed blessing. The other issue which upset people was allowing overweight coal trucks on the highways. More coal being mined means more truck traffic and potentially more fatallities.

[Skittles]

18. if people "aren't upset about Iraq"

there is something f***ing wrong with them.

[WVhill]

28. I understand your viewpoint.

I'm one who sees a need to pacify Iraq and establish a moderate government. The purpose being the undermining of Iran and putting pressure on the House of Saud to establish a representative government. In West Virginia, I don't think the Iraq war is a winner for Kerry.

One issue that neither party is addressing is telecommunications in the rural areas. Verizon's network is in pitiful shape. Kerry could impress a lot of voters just by mentioning that. Health care is another issue that would get folks' attention.

[lancdem]

8. The most recent Florida poll has Kerry ahead by 1

so that should not be in the Bush column at this point. This site is great for keeping track:

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Kerry also is almost tied with Bush in Arkansas as well.

[shawn703]

11. I couldn't find the current Florida information on that site

Was wondering if you could point me to it. I was going by this one from April 6:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-04-06-bush-fla-poll_x.htm?POE=NEWISVA

On a side note, I noticed that site put Bush on the ballot as George W. "Dubya" Bush. Is he really going to appear on ballots with "Dubya", or is that a joke?

[Lefty48197]

14. Kerry will win PA and WI. OH would win the entire thing for him.

After that, he needs MO and NV, or else MO and WV.

[Zorra]

22. IMO, Ohio will be the Florida of 2004.

Looks like the Secretary of State in Ohio, Blackwell, is pushing to get as many Diebold black boxes functioning as he can before the election.

[Adelante]

15. Here's the latest Arkansas

President, AR 04/16/2004

Bush (R) 47%
Kerry (D) 45%
Other/Undecided 8%
Data Collected
4/14/04 - 4/15/04

Geography
State of Arkansas

Sample Population
565 Likely Voters

Margin of Error
4.2%

Client
KTHV-TV Little Rock

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html


Full results in .pdf

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

[Lexingtonian]

17. Undecideds usually break in favor of the challenger

i.e. against the incumbent, at the polling booth. That happens more than 80% of the time and the 'exceptions' tend to involve redistricting or appointees that weren't well known to the constituency. Between roughly equally liked (or disliked) candidates the split tends to be around 2:1, between a liked challenger and an unliked incumbent it can reach 10:1 or higher.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to be Kerry's toughest Gore states to hold. His easiest Red States are New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida. I'd lump them as five states that are crucial and definitely winnable and around the same degree of effort. I find West Virginia and Nevada hard to read but probably intermediate difficulty. Arizona seems to be the upper limit for practical purposes this go-around.

Trends seem to say that Colorado, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina become winnable in 2008. Georgia, Louisiana, and Kentucky could be in play that year; even Texas could start looking wobbly.

[zorkpolitics]

20. Recent poll data

Ongoing state polling data can be found at the HedgeHog report:
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

He has Bush up 294 to 244 based on poling data, or if no state poll data is available, he assigns the state to the 2000 winner.

[LoZoccolo]

21. Thank you for your hard work.

I really like when people do some homework and share it here.

[dflprincess]

23. Last poll in Minnesota had Kerry up

by something like 15 points.

[TheStateChief]

24. Actually, Bush is ahead in NM, OH, OR, and WV

according to the most recent polls.

[TheStateChief]

25. Here's a list of recent polls:

I compiled these from various polling firms and local papers. Kerry's leading strong in Michigan, Minnesote, Washington, and Iowa and within the margin of error in Florida. Bush is ahead outside the margin of error in West Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona and Nevada and is ahead just barely in Arkansas, New Jersey, Oregon, Ohio, and New Mexico. The results in New Jersey flip to a slight Kerry lead when Nader is removed from the picture.

It's good to point out that a lot of Bush's leads are in polls that were taken last month.

Strong Kerry Lead (outside margin of error):

April 2-4 - Michigan (Kerry 51, Bush 41)
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

March 28-31 - Minnesota (Kerry 50, Bush 38)
http://www.startribune.com/stories/784/4702737.html

March 29 - Washington State (Kerry 50. Bush 45)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Washington%20March%2029.htm

March 23 - Iowa (Kerry 51, Bush 41)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Election%202004%20MN%20IA%20MO.htm

Small Kerry Lead (within margin of error):

April 13 - Florida - (Kerry 47, Bush 46)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm


Strong Bush Lead (outside margin of error):

April 15 - West Virginia (Bush 46, Kerry 41)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/West%20Virginia_April.htm

April 14 - Colorado (Bush 49, Kerry 44)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Colorado_April.htm

April 1 - New Hampshire (Bush 48, Kerry 43, Nader 3)
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nh/

March 23-31 - Wisconsin (Bush 47, Kerry 41)
http://www.jsonline.com/news/gen/apr04/219183.asp

March 25-29 - Pennsylvania (Bush 46, Kerry 40, Nader 3)
http://pdn.philly.com/2004/03/31/keyzpoll.pdf

March 22-24 - Indiana (Bush 52, Kerry 37)
http://www.imaweb.com/BellwetherPoll.pdf

March 23 - Missouri (Bush 49, Kerry 42)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Election%202004%20MN%20IA%20MO.htm

March 17-18 - Arizona (Bush 51, Kerry 42)
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

March 15-17 - Nevada (Bush 49, Kerry 38)
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Mar-21-Sun-2004/news/23477458.html


Small Bush Lead (within the margin of error):

April 14-15 - Arkansas (Bush 47, Kerry 45)
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

April 3-10 - New Jersey (Bush 48, Kerry 44, Nader 5) or (Kerry 41, Bush 40)
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--poll--bush-kerry0413apr13,0,4323251.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

March 23-April 7 - Oregon (Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1)
http://osrl.uoregon.edu/press/report/2004PresElection.pdf

April 3 - Ohio (Bush 45, Kerry 43, Nader 3) or (Bush 46, Kerry 45)
http://www.dispatch.com/election/election-president.php?story=dispatch/2004/04/04/20040404-A1-02.html

April 1 - New Mexico (Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 3)
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nm/

[mrgorth]

29. Let's be honest

If it's close Bush will win with shenanigans. It can't be close. We have to make it not close. The problem is that Bush plays to the bad in people and that's easy to find these days.